Choices

Aquarius 

When the moon is in the Seventh House 

And Jupiter aligns with Mars 

Then peace will guide the planets 

And love will steer the stars  

Do our stars choose what is best for us? 

Society consists of individuals. What is best for society, may not be the best for each individual in that society. My favorite way to understand this is the bank run scene in the film, “It’s a Wonderful Life”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPkJH6BT7dM. At the 1-minute mark of this clip, Tom demands all of his $242 from the Bailey Building and Loan, and says it is better to get half the amount from Mr. Potter, than to get nothing. George Bailey gives the customers his own money to stop this and at the 3 minute 30 second mark kisses Miss Davis when she only asks for $17.50 to tide her over. Tom is willing to consider taking a loss of 50% because he is considering a User Optimal solution. George and Miss Davis are seeking a System Optimal solution. 

Back in 2005, I was part of a team studying the transportation impacts of Climate Change on the Gulf Coast. In the middle of the study, Nature provided an unplanned experiment when Hurricane Rita struck Houston. The evacuation of Houston was a massive failure. The developers of the evacuation plan were part of the consultant team. Their evacuation plan assumed that each household would use only one vehicle to evacuate the members of the a household to safety, and any other vehicles would be abandoned at the household. Thus a household with 3 drivers and three cars would still only use one car, would evacuate on a timed schedule by neighborhood, and the highways would not get clogged. But the developers of the evacuation plan explained during the study that they themselves had one driver in every one of the cars they owned, ( 3 cars and three drivers per household means 3 cars evacuated), and left as soon as the evacuation started, which was their User Optimal solution, and as a result the roads were clogged. So even those who developed the System Optimal solution still chose a User Optimal solution, which explains the clogged evacuation highways. The lesson is that it is hard to choose the System Optimal solution when it requires you do something that conflicts with your own User Optimal solution. 

But “There is no “I” in Team”, “I only regret, that I have but one life to give for my country”, etc., etc. We want, and admire, System Optimal solutions, but we will choose User Optimal solutions. The problem is when the sum of User Optimal solutions is often way less than the System Optimal solution. That is why the fault is not in the stars, but in ourselves.

Fever

98.6

Hey, 98.6, it's good to have you back again
Oh, hey, 98.6, her lovin' is the medicine
That saved me, oh, I love my baby

Is a difference from 98.6 normal?

98.6 is the normal body temperature of humans.  But no single value should ever be taken as normal unless you also see an error range.  98.6 is the temperature in Fahrenheit.  In most of the world that temperature would be given as 37 degrees Celsius  If a Canadian heard that the outside air temperature was 35 degrees, he might consider it a heat wave, not because he is Canadian  but because he uses the Celsius temperature system.

Again 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit is 37 degrees Celsius.  The common claim that human body temperature averages 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit originated with a study by the German doctor Carl Reinhold August Wunderlich, who repeatedly measured the temperatures of 25,000 people in Leipzig in 1851. The error range is not often given but based on the instruments of that time it is assumed to be plus or minus 0.5 degrees Celsius.  That means the range of average normal temperature would have been given as 97.7 (36.5 degree Celsius) to 99.5 ( 37.5 Celsius).

But this was in 1851.  Has normal human body temperature changed in the last 170 years?  A body temperature higher than the outside air temperature is a mammalian defense against bacteria and fungus.  For example, the common intestinal bacteria Helicobacter causes open sores called ulcers in the esophagus, stomach and small intestine and raises affected people's risk of developing gastric cancers. Over the years, Helicobacter infections have become less common in the U.S because of antibacterial treatments.  This has meant that the evolutionary bias against body temperatures less than 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit may no longer apply.  According to a recent study, American men born in the 2000s measure an average 1.06 F (0.58 C) cooler than men born in the early 1800s. Women born in the 2000s measure about 0.58 F (0.32 C) cooler than women born in the 1890s. 

The bottom line is that 98.6 may not be YOUR normal body temperature, which might have fluctuated throughout the day anyway.  A fever is when YOUR body temperature is higher than its normal, not when your body temperature is higher than 98.6.

Heroes

 

I Need A Hero

I'm holding out for a hero 'til the end of the night
He's gotta be strong and he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight.

What does it say about you if you need a hero?

We have been telling stories about heroes from the time of Greek myths, to today’s Marvel and DC Universe movies.  What does it say about you, if you believe in heroes?  In a previous blog post, I described a framework for human behavior, https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-framework-for-human-behavior.html.  One of the attributes in this framework is whether someone favors User Optimal or System Optimal solutions.  Heroes by definition must believe in System Optimal solutions.  They clearly don’t seek a solution that is best for themselves, but seek the solution that is best for others. 

Superman could use his powers to be the wealthiest individual, but he chooses instead to save others. Batman is a billionaire but chooses to pursue justice, rather than his own pleasure.  In the movie "Civil Wars", Captain America seeks justice over order. When Spiderman says “With great power, comes great responsibility”, it clearly means responsibility to others even if it is to your own detriment.  Greek tragedies often describe what happens when heroes seek to advance their own interests, seek a User Optimal solution, and abandon seeking what is best for others, a System Optimal solution.

If you expect a hero to not seek their own User Optimal solution and save you, or you follow a story where a hero does just that, you probably also prefer System Optimal solutions over User Optimal solutions.   A hero may not only be someone who doesn’t get captured, but also includes those that get captured, depending on why they got captured and what they did once they were captured.  The best way to show that we admire heroes is to seek System Optimal solutions for ourselves. Then we can be our own heroes.

Trade Wars

War 

(War) h'uh. Yeah! 

(What is it good for?) Absolutely nothin’ 

 uh-huh, uh-huh 

(War) h'uh. Yeah! 

 (What is it good for?) Absolutely nothin' 

 Is a trade war good for nothing, too?

 “The US trade deficit is increasing because the US is losing the trade war with China.” There is a lot to unpack as wrong in that statement. 

First, war is a zero-sum game in that there are winners and losers. Trade is NOT a zero-sum game, and if it is done correctly should be a win-win game. 

Second , trade is not always a bilateral game. The trade deficit between one country and another is not necessarily relevant. In grade school we learned of the 17th and 18th century triangle trade: of slaves from Africa to the Caribbean; of molasses from the Caribbean to New England; and of rum from New England to Africa. (the following by no means is an endorsement of the triangle trade but is illustrative as to why bilateral trade measures are not relevant.) Between New England and Africa, Africa is the loser and New England is the winner. Between Africa and the Caribbean, Africa is the winner, and the Caribbean is the loser. Between the Caribbean and New England, New England is the winner, and the Caribbean is the loser. However the lesson of the triangle trade is that bilateral winners and losers do not mean anything. Another example is when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers as part of a three-team deal with the Twins. Trade can involve more than just two parties. 

Third, is the trade deficit in goods and services for the US increasing? Yes, but it has been increasing since the Bretton Woods agreement was terminated in 1971. The US Dollar is an international reserve currency and a major currency used in international trade. If US Dollars are in demand by other countries, they have a reason to be in a trade surplus with the US. This means that the US will be in a trade deficit with the rest of the world. Highlighting the trade deficit in service and goods acts as if the only value of the US dollar is to the US economy, which is not true. If the US dollars have a value to other countries, and there is value in trade between countries that does NOT even involve the US, the expected result is that the US will have a trade deficit. If  US dollars were not a reserve currency or the major international trade currency, there would probably be no trade deficit. 

So is the US losing a trade war with China and is that responsible for the US Deficit in goods and services. That viewpoint is so wrong that it is good for absolutely nothin’.

“Law and Order” vs. “Honor and Justice"

 

The Impossible Dream

This is my quest, to follow that star
No matter how hopeless, no matter how far
To be willing to give when there's no more to give
To be willing to die so that honor and justice may live.

“Law and Order” may only mean supporting the existing system.

We have elections to determine who controls the government, i.e. the system.  “Law and Order” supports those who control the existing system.  “Honor and Justice” supports the system, no matter who controls it. 

If there are protests against the system, those may not be supporting “Law and Order.”  However if those protests are on behalf of “Honor and Justice”, isn’t that  better than supporting “Law and Order”.

It brings to mind the opposition to protests when I was young as “My country, right or wrong”.  The best response that I remember agreed with that statement, but acknowledged that it was incomplete.  ”My country, right or wrong.  If it is right, keep it right.  If it is wrong, make it right."  That is supporting “Honor and Justice”, even if it is not supporting “Law and Order”.

Second Chances

 

I Am Changing

I am changing
Yes I know how 
I'm gonna start again.
I'm gonna leave my past behind
I'll change my life.
I make it up
And nothing is gonna stop me now. 

Is America is the Land of Second Chances? 

There is a popular tale used by certain groups, the Scorpion and the Frog.  A scorpion wants to cross a river but cannot swim, so it asks a frog to carry it across. The frog hesitates, afraid that the scorpion might sting, but the scorpion argues that if it did that, they would both drown. The frog considers this argument sensible and agrees to transport the scorpion. The frog lets the scorpion climb on its back and then begins to swim. Midway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway, dooming them both. The dying frog asks the scorpion why it stung despite knowing the consequence, to which the scorpion replies: "I couldn't help it. It's in my nature." 

If you accept the "moral" of this fable , then even though the scorpion knows that he will drown, you believe that he can’t change his nature.  You believe that the frog was “foolish” to give the scorpion a second chance.  Blaming nature is saying that one can’t change.  The problem is that the scorpion lied when he said he knew that they both would drown and would act to prevent that.  The frog would have been foolish to believe that the scorpion wouldn’t sting him on land, but the frog acted reasonably in believing that the scorpion would not sting him in the water where they both would drown. If you believe in second chances, then you believe that people can change their nature.

Cancel Culture

 Imperfection

I need imperfections
I don't need you to be perfect (oh, no, no)
We all got a past now
You just gotta leave it in the past now (uh)
So cancel out your ex (cancel out your ex)
And let 'em know I'm next (let 'em know I'm next)
And cancel out your stress (cancel out your stress, yeah)
'Cause baby I'm the best (yeah, yeah)

Is Dr. Seuss being Cancelled?

Hardly. Six out of his almost fifty books will no longer be published by his estate, but the remaining books will be treasured by readers in the years to come.  This decision not to publish was not made by the government, or by any political party. It is purely a business decision.

Is Dr. Seuss a racist?  That is a complicated matter.  He certainly drew things in ways that can be considered offensive early in his career.

https://www.businessinsider.com/before-dr-seuss-was-famous-he-drew-these-sad-racist-ads-2012-3#-3

"Wife on vacation, King?”

“Vacation nothing.  Nice girl, but I simply had to swap her for this Flit Gun.”

He avidly supported the WWII wartime Japanese internment camps,  but  later came to view the post-war occupation of Japan as tragic and that is thought to have inspired "Horton Hears a Who".

Like Saul, Theodore Geisel, aka Dr. Seuss, appears to had his moment on the road to Damascus.  If we don’t honor Paul’s older offensive letters from when he was called Saul, why are we troubled that older, offensive Dr. Seuss images and words will no longer be published by his estate.  There is a difference between honoring the past, and remembering the past.  Let us honor the person that Dr. Seuss became, and not remember the racist images and words in some of his early works.  Not publishing those images or words is not cancelling Dr. Seuss. It is honoring him.

Trust

 

Oriental Sadness 

She's been talking to somebody.
Who told her lies?
She'll never trust in anybody no more.
Who told her lies?

If those governing tell lies, how can we trust them?

The US one dollar bill carries the motto "In God We Trust", but we are also trusting those who govern, control, society, including those that issue money.  Capitalism assumes that there is perfect information available to both the buyer and the seller.  However this is an average over time. It does not apply to every transaction.  Over time, those transactions that are unsatisfactory will fail and those that are beneficial will succeed.

Like all statistics, this does not apply to each individual transaction.  Knowing that a fair coin flip will be heads one half of the time, provides no information on what the next coin flip will be. Information is unlikely to be available for every transaction.  The buyer and seller have to trust each other for their transaction to be satisfactory. 

It would be great if complete information were available for every transaction and trust was unnecessary.  However, economics shows that users will seek the lowest possible cost/price.  If that cost/price includes using tainted products, child labor, etc. then users will seek this cost/price regardless of their own long-term interests. That is why laws are passed to ensure that harmful outcomes, whether child labor, tainted or counterfeit products, wages below a minimum, etc. can not be considered.  However buyers and sellers still need to trust that the enactment and enforcement of these laws will be in their best interests.  That is why lies matter.  If you can’t trust someone about one thing, then you may not trust them about anything.