Ideas

 

Words

You think that I don't even mean
A single word I say
It's only words and words are all I have
To take your heart away

But words are important.

Words are how we communicate to each other. But as William Shakespeare said, “A rose by any name world smell as sweet.”  A word is an imperfect, but human, way of assigning a name to an idea.  End of life counseling sound benign, but death panels sounds terrible,  But both words describe the same thing.  The same is true  for Pro-choice and Abortion; charity and a handout; freedom of speech and slander.

Sometimes history accidentally displays this. Engineers refer to a difference from the ideal as tolerance.  Statisticians refer to exactly the same thing as deviation. One sounds benign, one sounds terrible, but they are the same thing.  A position should be taken on the thing, not the words used to describe that thing.

Random II

 

With God On Our side

Through many dark hour I been thinking' about this
That Jesus Christ was betrayed by a kiss
But I can't think for you, you'll have to decide
Whether Judas Iscariot had God on his side

Insurance companies routinely deny coverage to “Acts of God”. Are those companies theists?

As if! Insurance companies are using “Acts of God” as a euphemism for random events. A random event requires knowledge about the mean (location)  of the distribution including the event, as well as the variance (range) that incudes the event.

Weather is a random event. You need to know both the location AND the variance. And even then you can only describe the probability of the event occurring.  Climate is NOT a random event. It is subject only to the variance. It describes the range over which all of the random events will occur. This incudes every probability.

A game, an election, a battle, etc. is a random event. It makes no difference whether God is on your side. In fact, all players in the game, etc. probably believe God is on their side. Only if you want to set odds do you need both the location and the variance. If you only want to determine if the cumulative of random events are suitable only the variance is necessary. If you want to beat the house you need to know the location and the variance.  If you want to be the house you only need to know the variance.

Insurance companies are denying coverage, based on the climate change (the variance), not because of the average (the location) of a particular event. If hundred-year floods are happening more frequently than every hundred years, it is probably an indication that the variance, climate has changed to make this event more frequent. “Acts of God” are random.  Atheists calling random events Acts of God is an Act of Greed.

Truth V

 

The Three Bears

Just then, Goldilocks woke up
Broke up the party and beat it out there
Bye-bye, bye, bye, said the daddy bear
Goodbye, bye, said the mamma bear
Hey bubba-rebear, said the wee bear
So ends the story of the three bears

So, don't forget children, whatever you do
Don't go down to the woods tonight
Because the bears'll get ya!

Never mind Goldilocks and the Three Bears, what about Absolute and The Three Zeroes.

In a previous blog post I proposed that there are three zeros: 1) absolute zero, 2) relative zero and 3) repeating zero. If one of the four cells in an outcome matrix is an absolute, then the other three cells must be zero if the entire outcome matrix is also to be absolute. Let’s assume the rows of the outcome matrix are wins and losses and the columns of the outcome matrix are true and false. Then if any of those four cells are absolute then the other three cells must be one of the three zeroes.

If Quadrant I ( Quadrant numbering follows standard mathematical  conventions: Top Right is Quadrant I, Top left is Quadrant II, bottom left is Quadrant III and bottom right  is Quadrant IV) of the outcome matrix are true wins, then Quadrant II are false wins, Quadrant III are false losses and Quadrant IV are true losses. the outcome matrix is certain if all four cells sum to 100% and the outcome matrix is an absolute when any one of the four cells is 100%. If the absolute is a true win,  then Quadrant 2 must also be a False Win and an absolute zero; Quadrant III must be a False Loss and a relative zero, and Quadrant I must be a True Loss and a repeating zero. An absolute win is identical with an absolute loss. However an absolute win does not also have to be true. It is only true if the members of the group are also true. If there are N members of a group then if a group is going to function as an absolute, then N must be equal to three ( if N→∞ is 1, 100%, then Quadrant II is N/3 according to L’Hôpital’s Rule.)

If the outcome matrix is to be certain AND true, then the Quadrant I must be N/3, and the sum of Quadrant I and Quadrant III must also be true. This  makes the zero in Quadrant III an absolute zero. The zero in Quadrant IV, a False Win, must be a relative zero since it is offset from an absolute zero. This means that the zero in Quadrant II, a False Loss, must be a repeating zero. Thus there are four outcomes if an absolute is certain: Absolutely true; absolutely false; absolutely a win, and absolutely a loss.. If the absolute must be certain and true , then there is only one matrix that satisfies this and as stated previously, Quadrant I must be N/3. If all cells of the outcome matrix must also be between zero and one, then non-negative values can be found for Quadrants II, III and IV that can satisfy the certainty of the outcome matrix if the members of the group are greater than 3. If the number in the group is 3, it IS consistent with the absolute. If N, the members of the group, is only 1 there are NO non-negative values of Quadrants I, II, and IV that can e found that are also true. If the number of members of a Group are 2 and Quadrant II is zero, then the group can be true OR false depending on the values for False Wins and False Losses. If the value of False Losses is between zero and 1/6 and the value of False Wins is also between zero and 1/6,  and the value of False Losses plus False Wins is equal to 1/3 then the group is true. To satisfy both conditions, if N=2, only Quadrant II=Quadrant IV=1/6 is possible. This means that the sum of values in Quadrant II and IV, which remember is only the stand-in for ties, is a normal distribution. Otherwise the win is ABnormal. If the percentage of True wins is 2/3, 66 2/3%, and the sum of False Wins plus False Losses, i.e. ties,  follow a normal distribution.   The maximum positive normal skew is 96%, the False Wins are 2% and the False Losses are also 2%. The minimum normal skew would be 46.53% and the False Wins and False Losses would be each 26.785%. However any value for False Wins less than 25%  is also certainly false. This means that 91% of the normally distributed values with a Quadrant II of 2/3 are true and 9% are false.

An absolute appears consistent with groups with three Members, a trinity. A group with more than three members can always be true, a group with only 1 Member will always be false. Groups with two Members can be either true OR false. Groups with two Members (for example a two  party systems according to Duverger’s Law), which are normally distributed with a location parameter of 2/3 and a range parameter equal to ½ are true 91% of the time, including all those that are positively skewed, but are false 9% of the time, including the maximum negative normal skew.

A normal win in a real election with two group (e.g. parties) indicates that the win is true 91% of the time. If the distribution of False Wins and False Losses (whose sum is ties) are normally distributed, it  will be false 9% of the time including some negatively skewed normal distributions. The maximum positive skewed normal distribution for a group of two has a win certainty of 98%, and a truth certainty of 96%, That is almost identical to the absolute value of 100%.

Things that are assumed in making wins true.

1 The members of the group should approach the absolute, i.e., N→∞. All measures that decrease N, such as voter suppression, reduce the chances of the win being true.

2.  Ties have to be allowed. Zero-sum games assume than a contest will always result in a win and that all other outcomes are a loss. Thus contests that include a fixed sum, such as fixing the size of the House at 435 seats, the number of Supreme Court justices at 9, or fixing the currency to a commodity standard, should not be allowed. It is noted that if rather than the current method of allocating Congressional House seats, a method which apportions of one seat to the smallest state by population and all other seats based on the ratio to that state, currently Wyoming. This is why the popular name for this rule is the “Wyoming” rule.

3.  There must be three choices accommodating the three outcomes of win, loss, and tie. Since Duverger’s Law says that in the current single representative for a district system used in the United States will tend to two parties (groups) , this can be satisfied if each of the two parties nominates two candidates in each election. Otherwise voting might only indicates opposition to a candidate, not voting for a candidate.

4. Rank choice voting, as currently used in Alaska, should be include in all elections where the winner is by plurality rather than majority. In the 2024 Presidential election, at least the state votes in Michigan (Trump 49.7%) and Wisconsin ( Trump 49.6%) were by less than a 50% majority.

5. The electoral college is intended to elect a President based on the people’s choice AND the state’s choice. Thus awarding electoral votes should be done by Congressional District AND by states, as is the case currently only in Nebraska and Maine. It is not commonly reported what the people’s portion of electoral college vote would have been in all other states if they were awarded by Congressional House District. 

Even if all of these measures were in effect, it is noted that a normal election with two major parties is only absolutely true in 91% of all cases, based on statistics and game theory. Knowing the difference in the three zeroes makes it possible to solve for truth even when some of the Quadrants are NOT zero.  And it in reality, where there are both, 2, sides not being normal is not being truthful.

Winning

 

I’m A Loser

What have I done to deserve such a fate?
I realize I have left it too late
And so it's true pride comes before a fall
I'm telling you so that you won't lose all

I'm a loser
And I lost someone who's near to me
I'm a loser
And I'm not what I appear to be 

What does it mean to “lose” an election.

Our constitution is based on the fact that “We the People” are the sovereign, the absolute. The people elect those who will execute sovereignty as the representative of themselves. The winner of an election is certain, but while the absolute can be true, a “win” only demonstrates dominance. It does not, and can not, indicate truth.

Am outcome matrix/table will demonstrate this fact. An outcome matrix has FOUR cells. The certainty is the value of the ENTIRE matrix. But there are THREE outcomes in any game, Win, Loss, AND Tie. In order to fit these three outcomes into a four cell outcome matrix, it is useful to treat the sum of false wins and false losses as a tie. That means that an absolute loss is just as certain as an absolute win. Win and losses, or true and false, are only the row, or the column. marginals of the outcome matrix, table, not the entire table. An outcome matrix with a certainty of 100%, can be certainly true, or certainly false. The outcome matrix would reflect the absolute if the value of ANY of the four cells in that outcome matrix are 100%, but it will always reflect certainty if the TOTAL of all of the cells is 100%.  Winning is only two of three outcomes.  A win will be the sum of  true wins and false wins.  Winning an election is no different.  It might be a win, and that win might be real and certain but not be true. The win would be real if all of the cells of the outcome matrix are greater than zero, but that win might not be true.

Forgiveness

 

Oops I Did It Again

You see my problem is this
I'm dreaming away
Wishing that heroes, they truly exist
I cry, watching the days
Can't you see I'm a fool in so many ways
But to lose all my senses
That is just so typically me
Oh baby, oh

Oops, I did it again
I played with your heart, got lost in the game
Oh baby, baby
Oops, you think I'm in love
That I'm sent from above
I'm not that innocent

To err is human. To forgive is divine.

If this wisdom is true then the opposite is also true: “To NOT err is INHUMAN, to NOT forgive is DEMONIC”.  Sound like anyone we know DJT?

The original saying is a example of exponential behavior.  An absolute will be true AND forgives.  Humans can aspire to approach the absolute, but never attain the absolute. This means we will err in our attempt to attain the truth, but we should also aspire to forgive any mistakes ( “And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us", according to the Lord’s  Prayer.)  We are not that innocent.

Perceptions

 

My Hero, Zero!

How wonderful you are, why we could never reach a star
Without you, Zero, my hero, how wonderful you are
What's so wonderful about a zero? It's nothing, isn't it?
Sure, it represents nothing alone

But place a zero after one, and you've got yourself a ten
See how important that is?
When you run out of digits, you can start all over again
See how convenient that is?
That's why with only ten digits including zero
You can count as high as you could ever go
Forever, towards infinity
No one ever gets there, but you could try

Zero IS my hero, but what kind of zero.

There are three kinds of zero: 1) absolute zero, 2) relative zero, and 3) repeating zero. Mathematically this can be expressed as

1.      0<x<∞, absolute zero;

2.      -∞<x<∞, relative zero; and

3.      (n-1)*π*∞<x<n*π*∞, repeating zero.

It is confusing because absolute zero is often expressed using a relative scale, but that does NOT make it a relative zero. Absolute zero occurs a temperature of 0º on the Kelvin scale. But temperature is more often reported using the Celsius or Fahrenheit scale, where e.g., 0º Celsius is the  boiling point of water. -4000º on the Celsius scale is undefined because absolute zero occurs at ‑453º Celsius. Nothing exists below absolute zero.

By contrast a relative zero is only a reference point and infinity exists before that reference point as well as after that reference point. For example time is a relative zero where the refence point can be the birth of Chris, the Common Era, the founding of Rome, the start of the Exodus, the Big Bang, etc.

A repeating zero is a recognition that zero may occur an infinite number of times for example as in wave functions. It will pass though zero an infinite number of times, periodically.

Not only are there three kinds of zero, but each also appears to correspond to a dimension. Space is an absolute zero. There is no such thing as negative space. There are three components of space: length, width, and height, but as Minkowski showed, it is useful to combine them into a single dimension of space. Time appears to be a relative zero with the reference event being now. There is an infinite amount time before that event, the past, and an infinite amount of time after that event, the future.

Space and time are often taken together as space-time. This defines reality and light is assumed to travel on a flat, Euclidean surface which defines a light cone. However, it is only an assumption that space-time is flat, Euclidean. The Earth's surface is spherical and is only perceived as flat because the radius of the surface of the Earth is so large. Similarly if the universe were hyperbolic, curved, then light would travel on that hyperbolic surface. and while there is an infinite amount of space-time in which light can travel, the range of that space-time repeats cyclically according to a hyperbolic function. If light travels on that hyperbolic surface, it might be more useful to speak not of inverted light cones, but two sheets of a hyperboloid where the separation between the two sheets is zero.

An absolute might then be represented as an infinite series of overlapping triangular waves.  Each wave would have a sharp transition point at its apex.  However to an observer on a hyperbolic surface that wave, and its discontinuity, would be perceived as almost smooth and would repeat infinitely with each period of that wave, even if the observer could  perceive only the period in which the observer was located. The sharp discontinuity at each half period would be perceived of as a single discontinuity.  If the variance of the wave is perceived as 5/6 of the true variance, then the mean/median/mode/location of that wave might then be assumed to be 6/5 of the true mean/median/mode/mode location of that discontinuity in order to correct for this perception.  Setting only the location, i.e. a User Optimal, or only the variance, i.e. a System Optimal is inferior to setting, and correcting the perceptions, of both the location and the variance, i.e. a Nash Equilibrium. 

Zero is still my hero, but that includes all three kinds of zero!

Merry Christmas

 

Charlie Brown

Charlie Brown, Charlie Brown
He's a clown, that Charlie Brown
He's gonna get caught, just you wait and see
(Why's everybody always pickin' on me?)

You’re a good man, Charlie Brown.

https://youtu.be/eff0cqYefYY?si=66oMxhWo_UeYtH7f

Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah.  Blessed Diwali.  Happy Kwanzaa.  Happy Saturnalia.  Etc.  The meaning of all of these holidays is a belief in "Peace on earth, good will to ALL men", NOT just those men who are celebrating with you.