Election 2024 II

 

Its All In The Game

Many a tear has to fall but it's all in the game
All in the wonderful game that we know as love
You have words with him and your future's looking dim
But these things your hearts can rise above

An election is an important game, but it is still only a game.

What can Game Theory tell us about the results of an election? The outcome of any game between two equally matched contestants is win, loss AND tie. It is customary in most contests to employ some tiebreaker so that if the game ends in a tie, then it will still ultimately result  in a win or a loss. If there are two equally matched opponents it is probable that they will still have different policies and characters.

If Candidate 1 has policies that are preferred by 60% of the voters but has a character that is preferred by only 20% of the voters, then Candidate 2 must have the opposite. If wins and losses are determined by policies alone, then  Candidate 1 will win. However that is only 2/3 of the electorate. The remaining electorate, 1/3, will have to employ a tie breaker. If that tie breaker is character, then Candidate 1 will have a vote total of 47%, 60% of 2/3 plus 20% of 1/3,  while Candidate 2 will have a vote total of 53%, 40% of 2/3 plus 80% of 1/3. Candidate 2 will win. Candidate 1 may complain that only policies should have been the tie breaker or that ties should not count, but that is the math if character is the tie breaker.

That is the popular vote. The electoral vote depends on the outcome in each state weighed by its share of electoral votes. If the preference of each candidate’s policies and character differs among the electorate in each state, then the outcome in each state will be different.

The state share of electoral votes being “winner take all” is a custom only, not a constitutional requirement. If the House share of a state’s electoral votes are awarded by the vote in each House congressional district, as is the case in Nebraska, then the electoral vote will be more in keeping with the intent of the founding fathers. IOW all states should award electoral votes like Nebraska, not Nebraska should award votes by “winner takes all” like other states. Then the winning Candidate will have a majority of the voters AND broad representation among the United states.

In any event Candidate 2 should focus on character NOT policies, if character is the tie breaker. Focusing on policies alone plays to Candidate 1’s strength. Play the game correctly.