Friday, January 1, 2021
Tyranny of the Minority
Wednesday, December 2, 2020
Caste Part III : Nature versus Nurture
I Believe
If you dream that you can change your nature, is that possible?
Albert Einstein was a Jewish refugee. Marie Curie was a woman. Stephen Hawking was paralyzed by ALS, confined to a wheelchair and spoke with mechanical aids. Alan Turing was a homosexual. John Coltrane was Black. Toni Morrison was both Black and a woman. Benjamin Franklin was 70 years old when he helped in drafting the Declaration of Independence. According to nativists, we are defined by our nature and that nature defines what we can achieve. Thus, none of these people should have achieved their dreams and made the contributions that they did, but society is fortunate that they made those achievements.
Faith, nationality, immigration status, gender, disability, sexual orientation, race, age, and other measures of caste, should not define one's contributions and value to society. While, nature alone might be proper for animal husbandry it may not be the best way to define people. However nurture alone is not an alternative. Despite my dreams, I will never run a 100 meters in 10 seconds. What is necessary that people be nurtured to support their dreams consistent with their nature.
Sunday, November 1, 2020
Caste: Part II
You've Got To Be Carefully Taught
You've got to be taught to be afraid
Of people whose eyes are oddly made
And people whose skin is a different shade
You've got to be carefully taught.
Caste is NOT the way things must be. We can choose not to teach caste.
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Role of a Judge
It's Alright With Me
It might be alright with Senator Mitch McConnell, but not with everyone.
During the Senate Judiciary Committee's hearings on Judge Amy Coney Barrett, one argument that Republican Senators seem to be presenting is that the role of a judge is not the role of a legislator. This is true but irrelevant. If judges only interpreted the law, then there would only be 9-0 decisions of the Supreme Court. Since there are dissenting opinions, the opinion of a judge, and what might be the basis for their dissent, matters.
Another argument that Republican Senators seem to be advancing is that the Democratic opposition to Judge Barrett is because of her Catholic religion. If this were true then why is the Democratic candidate for President a practicing Catholic? Clearly not all Catholics have the same opinion or else a future Catholic President Biden would also be expected to nominate Catholic Judge Barrett.
Clearly opinion matters, and the consent of the Senate should be based on those opinions.
The Mafia's definition of a Honest Man is one that stays bought. Since the confirmation of Justice Barrett by Republican Senators appears to be a forgone conclusion, we can only hope that she has a different definition of honesty than the Mafia's definition, and that she understands the role of a judge is to interpret the law on behalf of all Americans, regardless of party.
Friday, September 25, 2020
Valuing Risk: Part 4
Just because the consequences aren't what you want, it ain't necessarily the risk.
While often the likelihood has been confused with the risk, it is also possible to mistake the consequences of an event for its risk. Risk is always the product of likelihood AND consequences. For example voter fraud. If the consequences for your candidate is that voter fraud will cause them to loose the election, then consequences would be very bad (even if the backers of the opponent might view those consequences differently!) That does not mean that the risk of voter fraud is also high.
The Brennan Center’s seminal report , The Truth About Voter Fraud, found that most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices. The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. That means that the risk of voter fraud for that hypothetical candidate is 100% * 0.0003 %. Even if the likelihood was 100 times as greater, the risk of voter fraud is then only 100% *0.003%= 0.003%.
Confusing the consequences of voter fraud with the risk of voter fraud is even harder to understand than confusing the likelihood with the risk.
Sunday, September 13, 2020
Free Will
Free Bird
Lord knows, I can't change
If you really want to be free, you have to be able to chose
to change.
System Optimal versus User Optimal solutions might sound
like only a mathematical argument, but that is only because of the
words that are used. If User Optimal instead
is called free will and System Optimal solutions are called good works, the argument
become recast in terms that are more familiar and relevant. Free will says that we are free to choose the
solution that we believe is best for us (i.e. can chose a User Optimal solution).
Good works says that there is a solution that is best for society (i.e. the
System Optimal solution). The conflict
between these two is the subject of religion,
sociology, evolution, etc.
Religion deals with the conflict between free will and good works. Most major religions have some from of the
golden rule “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”, even though
the often rule is cynically described as “Whoever has the gold, makes the rules”
that acknowledges that the golden rule is not always chosen by individuals.
Sociology deals with the changes in the choices of society in groups. The taking of goods by force was once acceptable
(e.g. the Roman Empire, Spanish Empire, etc.) but is not accepted by society today. Assassination was once socially acceptable (e.g.
the Medicis, the Thuggees, etc.) but is not acceptable today. Extreme revenge against your enemies was once
acceptable (e.g. Roman salting of Carthage, Vlad the Impaler, also known as Dracula,
etc.) but is not acceptable today.
Evolution is often misunderstood that it is a User Optimal
solution (e.g.. survival of the fittest), when in fact it seeks a System Optimal solution,
The title of the evolution's most famous work is “On The Origin Of Species", not, "On The Origin Of A Specimen.
It is hoped that we chose System Optimal solutions, but
free will means that we can chose User Optimal solutions. We look forward to a day when the User Optimal
solutions are also System Optimal solutions.
Saturday, September 5, 2020
Words Matter
Sticks and Stones
Some words can hurt. Not understanding that marginal tax rates are not the same as the effective tax rates can hurt the decisions that we support.
Taxes are meant to raise revenue for the government. They are fair if the amount raised from each individual is fair. That is why we have a progressive tax system. Jesus observed in the Bible that the “Amen, I
say to you, this poor widow put in more than all the other contributors to the
treasury. For they have all contributed from their surplus wealth, but she,
from her poverty, has contributed all she had, her whole livelihood.”
Taxes then might be considered fair if they are from the surplus
wealth not from our whole livelihood. So
what is surplus wealth? Might that be marginal
income and not the whole income? In the
2020 tax year, the highest US tax bracket is assessed on incomes of more than $622,051
for households filing jointly. The
marginal tax rate for this bracket is 37%.
However that is NOT the tax rate on the income below $622,051 for this
same bracket. Those taxes are $167,307.50
which is less than 27% of the income below $622,051. Referring to the marginal
rate as the name for the tax bracket distorts from the fact that it is not the
actual tax rate ( which i probably called the effective tax rate by an accountant).
Calling the marginal tax rate the effective tax rate, is probably
as intellectually honest as referring to an estate, or an inheritance, tax as a
death tax. Yes, you have to be dead to
have an estate or to bequeath an inheritance, but the tax is on the estate or
the inheritance, not the death.
The lowering of the marginal tax rates began in earnest in the 1980s with the passage of Economic Recovery Tax Act. http://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2020/06/taxman.html . Before he became the vice president, George H.W. Bush referred to supply side economics, which was the basis for lowering the marginal tax rates, as voodoo economics. Since adopting supply side economics as the basis for tax policy, the growth of income in the US has been less than it was before, and the gap between rich and poor has increased. When supply side economics was adopted as state tax policy, by then Kansas Governor Brownback in 2012, it achieved none of its stated goals, and was eventually abandoned. Lowering state taxes was claimed as a way to simulate the economy. Lowering taxes may stimulate the economy, but lowering tax rates is not the same as lowering taxes, unless all tax rates are lowered equally. We understand that there is a difference between acceleration and speed. The fact that both effective and marginal tax rates include the word tax does not mean they are the same. Acting like they are the same is an example of when words can hurt you.