Monday, May 3, 2021

Apportionment II

 I'm A Loser

I'm a loser
And I lost someone who's near to me.
I'm A loser
And I'm not what I appear to be

There is a way to apportion congressional seats such that no state is a loser.

The Founding Fathers carefully drafted the US Constitution to prevent a Tyranny of Majority.  They did not want a majority to control the government such that the values of that majority could be imposed on a minority.  To this end they carefully split powers among three branches of government and required certain actions to only be possible by a super majority of the voters: 3/4 of the states to amend the constitution, 2/3 vote of Congress to override an executive veto, 2/3 vote of the Senate to enter into a treaty, etc.  The Bill of Rights were amendments to the Constitution to ensure that the majority could never remove those rights.  The Framers of the Constitution would be disappointed if an apportionment resulted in a Tyranny of a Minority.

The number of seats in the House of Representatives was not capped at 435 in the Constitution.  The only requirement in the Constitution is that each state have at least one seat in the House of Representatives.  The capping of the number of seats at 435,  the method of apportionment, and the making it automatic, are due to acts of Congress.  Congress set the current cap at 435 in 1911 (in anticipation of the admission of New Mexico and Arizona as states) and there was a temporary increase to 437 when Alaska and Hawaii became states prior to the 1960 Census.  Congress made the process automatic in 1941.  It is the cap of 435, the requirement that each state have at least one seat, and an integer number of seats per state that results in the current situation of winners and losers.  If the cap did not exist, a simple way to apportion seats to meet the at least one representative per state constitutional mandate would be to allocate seats according to the “Wyoming” rule, so named because the seats would be allocated based on the  population of each state divided by the population of the least populous state, currently Wyoming.  On this basis California would have 68.54 representatives to Wyoming’s one representative, because the population of California in 2020 was 68.54 times the population of Wyoming.  This does require fractional seats and a total of 573.39 seats for the United States.  If the fractional seats were converted to integers, using conventional rounding rules, this would mean that California would receive 69 seats and the total would be 573.  This number does exceed the 435-seat cap on the number of seats.  However the vote per seat does not have to be equal to one.  There is a precedent in the Constitution for fractional amounts. Each of the previously enslaved population was counted as 3/5 of a person for purposes of apportionment.  It the number of seats is reduced from 573.39 to 435 and each seat was given 1.32 votes, four states, North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming, would have less than one seat.

It is therefore proposed that the current number of representatives, which totals 435, be retained but that the voting power of each representative be the seats allocated by the Wyoming rule divided by the current allocation of seats.  In this case it retains the constitutional mandate of one representative per state, a cap of 435, and there is a whole number of representatives per state.  However the voting power of those representatives would change such that each of California’s current 53 representatives would have a vote of 1.29, which is 68.54 divided by 53, while Wyoming’s one representative would have 1 vote.  This would recognize that the most populous state should have the voting power that is a multiple of its population to the least populous state. No state would ever lose a seat, but states would gain voting power as their population increased. It is suggested that the size of the electoral college should also be adjusted, by law or amendment, to recognize this change.  There would be no losers, but the current voting power of the least populous states would be adjusted proportionally.  Then the apportionment of seats would not be biased toward the least populous states, which can be considered to be a Tyranny of the Minority of those least populous states.

State

2020 Population

Seats by Wyoming Rule

Integer seats by Wyoming Rule

Current seats

Proposed votes per current seat

California

39,538,223

68.541483

69

53

1.2932

Texas

29,145,505

50.525188

51

36

1.4035

Florida

21,538,187

37.337522

37

27

1.3829

New York

20,201,249

35.019873

35

27

1.2970

Pennsylvania

13,002,700

22.540829

23

18

1.2523

Illinois

12,812,508

22.211122

22

18

1.2340

Ohio

11,799,448

20.454932

20

16

1.2784

Georgia

10,711,908

18.569627

19

14

1.3264

North Carolina

10,439,388

18.097200

18

13

1.3921

Michigan

10,077,331

17.469556

17

14

1.2478

New Jersey

9,288,994

16.102935

16

12

1.3419

Virginia

8,631,393

14.962951

15

11

1.3603

Washington

7,705,281

13.357489

13

10

1.3357

Arizona

7,151,502

12.397486

12

9

1.3775

Massachusetts

7,029,917

12.186712

12

9

1.3541

Tennessee

6,910,840

11.980286

12

9

1.3311

Indiana

6,785,528

11.763051

12

9

1.3070

Maryland

6,177,224

10.708526

11

8

1.3386

Missouri

6,154,913

10.669849

11

8

1.3337

Wisconsin

5,893,718

10.217054

10

8

1.2771

Colorado

5,773,714

10.009021

10

7

1.4299

Minnesota

5,706,494

9.8924922

10

8

1.2366

South Carolina

5,118,425

8.8730452

9

7

1.2676

Alabama

5,024,279

8.7098384

9

7

1.2443

Louisiana

4,657,757

8.0744542

8

6

1.3457

Kentucky

4,505,836

7.8110916

8

6

1.3018

Oregon

4,237,256

7.3454948

7

5

1.4691

Oklahoma

3,959,353

6.8637360

7

5

1.3727

Connecticut

3,605,944

6.2510839

6

5

1.2502

Utah

3,271,616

5.6715096

6

4

1.4179

Iowa

3,190,369

5.5306639

6

4

1.3827

Nevada

3,104,614

5.3820033

5

4

1.3455

Arkansas

3,011,524

5.2206272

5

4

1.3052

Mississippi

2,961,279

5.1335249

5

4

1.2834

Kansas

2,937,880

5.0929616

5

4

1.2732

New Mexico

2,117,522

3.6708301

4

3

1.2236

Nebraska

1,961,504

3.4003651

3

3

1.1335

Idaho

1,839,106

3.1881820

3

2

1.5941

West Virginia

1,793,716

3.1094962

3

3

1.0365

Hawaii

1,455,271

2.5227849

3

2

1.2614

New Hampshire

1,377,529

2.3880153

2

2

1.1940

Maine

1,362,359

2.3617173

2

2

1.1809

Rhode Island

1,097,379

1.9023613

2

2

0.9512

Montana

1,084,225

1.8795582

2

1

1.8796

Delaware

989,948

1.7161243

2

1

1.7161

South Dakota

886,667

1.5370815

2

1

1.5371

North Dakota

779,094

1.3505983

1

1

1.3506

Alaska

733,391

1.2713699

1

1

1.2714

Vermont

643,077

1.1148061

1

1

1.1148

Wyoming

576,851

1.0000000

1

1

1.0000

Total/Avg

330,759,736

573.3885093

573

435

1.3181



Thursday, April 29, 2021

Second Amendment

 

Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down)

Bang bang, I shot you down
Bang bang, you hit the ground
Bang bang, that awful sound
Bang bang, I used to shoot you down.

What can Congress do to control gun violence?

The Second Amendment  in its entirety reads : “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”   The state in question here is the United States.  A well regulated militia is NOT any group of individuals calling themselves a militia.  The Militia is discussed in Constitution  Article 1, Section 8, Clauses 15 and 16, which read:

Clause 15. The Congress shall have Power * * * To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions.

Clause 16. The Congress shall have Power * * * To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress.

The states have the power over the militia, but its training can be prescribed by Congress.  That militia currently goes by the name of the National Guard of each state.  In this context, the ability of the states to arm their National Guard may not be infringed.  It does not seem to say that states can not use other means of providing arms to its National Guards, such as having arms stored in a National Guard Armory. An individual citizen acting on his own, is not a militia, and thus does not appear to be covered by the Second Amendment. 

At the time the Constitution was written, members of a state National Guard, i.e. Militia, were expected to supply their own arms.  This is no longer the case.  No one expects an individual to have a Blackhawk helicopter in their possession that will be brought to arm the National Guard.  Why then is the expectation that guns owned by individuals are of any use, or interest, to the well regulated Militia, i.e. the National Guard. If those guns are not of interest to the National Guard, then they do not seem to be protected by the Second Amendment

If Congress requires that in the state training of Militias, arms are properly controlled and supervised, and no member of this well regulated militia should not have arms in his possession without such training, this does seem to be within the power of Congress. And then maybe my baby would not be able to shoot me down.

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Voter Fraud

 

Flim Flam Man

He's the one in the Trojan horse
Making out like he's Santa Claus.
Oh lord, the man's a fraud,
He's a flim flam man

Should measures to prevent voter fraud be enacted?

Voter fraud laws are being proposed to ensure that there is ZERO fraud.  However as a former engineering professor of mine used to say, “You don’t build a church for Christmas Eve services”.  Perfection is the enemy of the good.  The benefit of eliminating voter fraud must be balanced against the cost of voter suppression. Just including the benefit of preventing voter fraud without also considering the cost of voter suppression is like building a church for Christmas Eve services, i.e. incurring the cost of an outlier, not an average, event.

The likelihood of voter fraud is small according to most studies.  It is not however zero.  But likelihood is not the risk.  Risk is the product of likelihood AND consequence.  The risk of voter fraud which must also be estimated. If the risk, likelihood times consequences, is large then perhaps the measure should be adopted.  But if the goal is zero fraud, then no measure can be considered to be worth the cost.

Australia requires everyone to vote.  There is a fine for not voting.  Fraud is expected to occur if everyone must vote and there are fines for fraud. This system does not require voters to prove their identity.  https://www.voteaustralia.org.au/faq_voter_fraud.

It is impossible to eliminate fraud, just as it is impossible to eliminate murder.  However to prevent murder we punish this behavior, we don’t assume that everyone is a murderer.

If someone still insists on preventing voter fraud, ask them if they have heard the phrase  “He that smelt it, dealt it.”

Voter Suppression

 

Nineteenth Amendment

They thought we were a joke
They tried to dash our hopes
With every word they spoke
They tried to revoke
A woman’s right to vote
But we made it

Voter suppression (revoking the right to vote) is still with us, and that also isn’t a joke.

“Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

This is the text of Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution (emphasis added).  Voter suppression laws directly affect the apportionment of seats in Congress.  The suppression of any voter reduces the population that is used in the apportionment of congressional representatives.  Before any apportionment is undertaken, the impact of voter suppression laws must be considered..  An argument will be made that over suppression laws do not DENY the right to vote, they make the right to vote more difficult.  However if any voter suppression law is intended to deny individuals their right to vote, it should be considered in any apportionment.

While the text of the Fourteenth Amendment refers to male citizens, the Nineteenth Amendment must be considered to change this to also include female citizens.

While the Supreme Court may have ruled in Shelby vs. Holder that, under the Voting Rights Act of  1965, Congressional oversight of mapping of the districts in which the congressional representatives are elected  was no longer appropriate, this does not remove Congress’s responsibilities for the apportionment itself that determines the number of those representatives. While Congress may have made the apportionment process automatic following a decennial census, this only determines the total population.  The Census does not report on the voters who have been denied the right to vote.  This still must be considered before any congressional reapportionment can be determined, or the joke is on us, the voters.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Apportionment

 

You're The Man 

If you've got the master plan
I got the vote for you, hey, hey
Got the vote for you, 'cause you're the man.
 

You don’t have a vote in Congress, your representative in Congress is your vote. 

The 4 million persons in the Census of 1790 were used to apportion, by state, the seats in the United States House of Representatives.  In 1790 there were 67 seats.  Even though the population of the United States in 2020 has just been released as 331 million persons, an increase of over 8200%, this does not mean that the number of seats in the House has also increased by 8200% to 5,544.  A  Congressional law fixed number of seats at 435 and an automatic process for apportioning those 435 seats,  but that number is NOT in the Constitution.  The Constitution only requires that each state has at least one representative. 

The apportionment was based not on voters but residents (including women and children who could not vote at that time).  The issue of including enslaved persons was contentious and the subject of much debate.  Should enslaved persons, be counted towards the apportionment, even though they also could not vote.  This was not a trivial issue.  The Constitution contains many provisions that prevented the tyranny of the majority; through checks, balances, super majorities, and compromises.  In 1790, the enslaved population represented 0% of the population in Massachusetts, but 38% of the population in Virginia.  Apportioning House seats based on including, or excluding, the enslaved population would create vastly different apportionments.  A 3/5 rule was a compromise such that “slave” states did not immediately receive the majority of House seats.  Unsurprisingly the apportionment of seats remained a contentious issue before, and after, the Civil War that abolished slavery, but the number of House seats was not capped at 435 until 1913, no apportionment was made after the 1920 census, and the formula used was codified and made automatic in 1941.

The current automatic process is not the only way to apportion House seats.  One proposal, the Wyoming rule, would apportion House seats based on the ratio of a state's population to the least populous state, currently Wyoming.  This would meet the requirement that each state have at least one representative, but this would give California, the most populous state, 69 seats rather than its current 53 seats. This would also increase the current size of the House from 435 seats to 573 seats. While this number might not be practical if all representatives were required to be physically present in the House Chamber, but given today’s remote meeting technology, this may not be a burden.

If the population increased by 8200% from 1790, increasing the number of seats in the House of Representatives by 855% does not sound so radical.  Not all voters can expect to vote in the House, but if the number of seats was increased from 435 to 573, the residents might expect that their vote could be reflected in “the man.”

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Words

 

Words

It's only words, and words are all I have
To take your heart away

You might only have words, but those words are important.

You have to be careful with words.  Cockney rhyming slang or highly technical language can do more than just be the words that are spoken.  The words, and the accent which is used to pronounce them, may reveal more than intended about the society to which the speaker belongs.  That language may be meant to exclude others ( if you are not "in with the in-crowd", you prove that by not understanding the slang of the "in-crowd"), but not being able to use the words of a society or its preferred accent does not mean that you are not trying to be a part of a society. 

My maternal grandmother spoke only Polish, but she still considered herself to be an American.  My paternal Irish ancestors did not learn English because they thought that was the superior culture, but because they were forbidden to speak Gaelic.  I try to remember them and not use words to keep people out, but to use words to include people and to speak the truth.  The important thing is the truth, not the words.