Peace

 

Let There be Peace on Earth 

With ev'ry step I take
Let this be my solemn vow
To take each moment and live
Each moment in peace eternally
Let there be peace on earth
And let it begin with me 

Amen. 

I have blogged before about the Prisoner’s Dilemma excerpt from Golem in The Gears. https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2021/05/tough-but-fair-beats-always-being-nasty.html  

Imagine Sea Hag One as say Putin and Sea Hag Two as say Putie's BFF, Don "The Con", which currently is short for Confidence Man but someday, hopefully very soon, will also mean Convict. 

Let Golem One be my nominee for Man of the Decade, the greatest leader since Winston Churchill , whose phrase "I need ammunition, not a ride" will outlive us all, Volodymyr Zelensky.  Let Golem Two be say President Joe Biden. 

Those playing "Nasty" will always win games against those playing "Nice", but ONLY when they are in a two player game.  Those poor fools did not learn that if they want others to play with them, they have to play "Nice". sometimes.  Playing "Nice" is never a winning tactic, and is not a winning strategy in a two player game, but playing "Nice" sometimes, Tough But Fair, is a winning strategy in the long run when there are more than two players.  Believing that others have to play with you, or trade with you, or let you fly in their airspace, etc., is a bully's big mistake.  Screenwriter Bob Gale modeled "Back to the Future"'s bully Biff Tannen after Donald Trump's behavior in the NY tabloids back in the 1980s. If Number 45 doesn't see he that he is the joke, hopefully the rest of us will. 

Longfellow’ poem The Bells which was written during the height of the US Civil War, which Bing Crosby made into a Christmas Carol.   

Then rang the bells more loud and deep
God is not dead, nor doth He sleep
(Peace on Earth)
(Peace on Earth)
The wrong shall fail, the right prevail
With peace on Earth, good will to men 

“The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” 

Let’s do more than pray for peace.  Let us live for peace.

Wealth

 

Too Close for Comfort

Be wise, be fair, be sure, be there, behave, beware
Be wise, be smart, behave my heart
Don't upset your cart when she's so close.

Can society increase wealth in a manner that is FAIR?

If the mean and median are the same, the distribution is “normal”.  It is suggested that this is the distribution which most humans would also classify as “fair”.  If the mean wealth is $0 and the median wealth is $0 this merely means that some of the people have negative wealth (i.e. debt) while others have positive wealth.  This does not mean that there is no wealth, just that the Standard Deviation of wealth is not also $0. The variance is the square root of the Standard Deviation.  If the distribution was normal, the wealthiest 0.3% are those that have a wealth which is the Standard Deviation multiplied by three.  In other words, if the wealthiest 0.3% have a wealth of $1 million, then if the median wealth is zero and the average wealth is zero, then the Standard Deviation is $333,333 and the variance is 577.

During the COVID pandemic the phrase flatten the curve became well known. A naturally occurring statistical phenomena, such as hospital bed admittances with COVID when there are no safety precautions, would be a uniform normal distribution with a variance of 1.  Flattening the curve means increasing its variance.  A variance of 577, would be a very flat curve.  In order for it to also be a normal distribution,  it would mean that the poorest 0.3% must also have a debt of  $1 million.  Since this amount of debt is not likely, the distribution of wealth is most probably skewed to the wealthy, the median is less than the mean, and the distribution is NOT normal.

Society, all of the individuals with wealth, have an interest in increasing the median.  If the existing distribution is maintained, then an increase in wealth of the median will also increase the amount held by the wealthy.  However society can not increase the wealth unless, as they say in the US Constitution "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries", otherwise there is no incentive for inventors to invent or for artists to create new works of art.  Additionally, society may take other measures to increase its wealth, say by funding the programs of the New Deal or the Great Society.  In order to have the funds for these programs, society must raise funds in taxes, and therein lies the rub.  Those with existing wealth are loathe to part with that wealth in the form of taxes, which are the merely the way that society must raise its revenue.

Tax codes should raise revenue by preserving a fair distribution of wealth, or at the very least the existing distribution of wealth.  The problem is that beginning with the Reagan Tax Cuts, the tax code promoted a shift of wealth from the median to the wealthiest.  Additionally, and not surprisingly, this was also accompanied by a slowing of economic growth for all groups.

If society is to increase wealth, and not merely transfer wealth from the poor to the rich, the tax code should be revised to be fair.

Tucker Carlson

Traitor

And ain't it funny
How you said you were friends?

Now it sure as hell don't look like it

You betrayed me

And I know that you'll never feel sorry

For the way I hurt, yeah

Is Tucker Carlson a Traitor?

How well does Tucker Carlson live up to the standards of "Truth, Justice, and the American Way".This is of course from the lines repeated at the beginning of every episode of the daily Adventures of Superman TV show when I was a child.

Superman was created by Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster, children of Jewish immigrants, as a retelling for modern times of the Moses story.  A baby was placed by his parents in a basket (rocket) and sent off for his safety.  His birth name for goodness sake is Kal- El.

I won't get into Tucker Carlson's shameful attitudes about Truth and Justice.  But if he is against the American Way, then he is by definition a Traitor to America.

The fact is that the American Way is to stand with the Jewish President of a country who is opposing an unJust invasion of his Country because of unTruths.  ( Ukrainians like Zelensky are Nazis?  Really? Really?)

If Tucker Carlson is against the American Way, then he is a traitor in my, and many, eyes.

I have written to YouTube TV, my streaming service, because while I can boycott the products of companies who advertise on Tucker Carlson's show, I know that my YouTube TV subscription dollars go to keeping this filth on the air.  While I am delighted that YouTube TV carries ESPN, Nickelodeon, and TMC, I regret that my subscription is supporting Tucker Carlson on Fox News.

Tucker Carlson is against the American Way, which makes him a traitor to Americans like me.

Sanctions

Dazed and Confused

You hurt and abuse,
Tellin' all of your lies
Run 'round, sweet baby, lord, how they hypnotize
Sweet little baby, I don't know where you been
Gonna love you, baby, here I come again

So who is confused about strategy and tactics?

Sanctions have been proposed by President Biden as a strategy for dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Some in the GOP have complained that sanctions are weak and ineffective.  Those individuals  are confusing strategy with tactics.  Are sanctions an effective tactic? No, but they were never claimed to be.

Those individuals opposing sanctions as ineffective must also be fans of Pyrrhic victories.  In case you have forgotten, a Pyrrhic victory is one where the victory, and the tactics used to achieve that victory, work against a winning strategy.  E.g. you won the battle, but lost the war.  They might make the tacticians who achieved that victory proud of themselves.  But a mid-season sports victory that came at the cost of injuring the team's star player almost always guarantees a losing season.  A gambler who won $100,000 in a game, but has lost $400,000 over the last year is still a loser.  The winner of an auction who paid more than the asset is worth will probably be bankrupt in the long run.  Or particularly germane to current events… the French Invasion of Russia in 1812 and the taking of Moscow.  It should be particularly fitting to listen to Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture today, and everyday, until the Russian invasion of the Ukraine becomes the latest example of a Pyrrhic victory.  Kind of makes you want to listen again on Election day, and when the Truth Social app crashes and burns as well!  I’d rather be weak than dazed and confused!

Inflation IV

 

Subterranean Homesick Blues

Look out kid, don't matter what you did
Walk on your tiptoes, don’t tie no bows
Better stay away from those that carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose, watch the plainclothes
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

But you do need to know that there IS a difference between
short term weather
and
long term climate.

If there is a fixed amount of money, and money is the medium of exchange in trade, then all trading must stop if one group of players has all of the money.  On the other hand, if society wishes trade to continue, then it must increase the supply of money to allow trade. 

The first situation describes when the supply of money is based on a fixed asset, e.g. gold or crypto currency ( e.g. Bitcoins will be eventually limited to 21 million).  When money is based on a fixed asset, it is said to be a commodity currency, such as the gold standard.  The second situation describes a fiat currency, where society creates money to accommodate trade. The first is the Chicago School, the second is  Keynesian. 

The United States Dollar was on the gold standard until 1933, when private ownership of gold was made illegal.  However gold still was the international trading currency.  After Bretton Woods, the United States Dollar became the international trading currency backed by gold.  Predictably, international players accumulated more and more dollars, and potentially gold, until the Nixon Shock of 1971.  This was followed by an economic readjustment, as the supply and demand curves had to readjust to this new reality.  Since that time, while long term inflation has been persistent, short term corrections between the supply and demand curves have been minimal.

Calls to go to a commodity currency, where that is backed by gold, or by crypto currency, appears to risk subjecting the economy to major corrections in the supply and demand curves.  Overall, the markets have been generally stable after they recovered from the Nixon Shock. But long term inflation has increased because the  international trading currency was a domestic fiat currency which was not growing to account for international trade ( the Triffin Dilemma) .

The year to year increase in the 2022 CPI was 4.4%.  The December 2020 to December 2021 increase was 7%, but 4.4% is based on the average of monthly CPI weighted by the days in each month.  The 7% increase is only relative to the lower demand in December 2020.  Given that the long term inflation has been suggested to be 4%, this change in short term inflation might not be cause for alarm. The increase in CPI seemed to begin in March of 2020, which is also the start of the COVID shutdown. Making policy decisions based on a comparison of today with COVID conditions would appear to be unwise.  It is like declaring that a drought is over based on a comparison of today’s rainfall with that during of the worst of the  drought.  The short term change is nice to know, but it is the change over the long term that is important.

Fraternities

 

La Marseillaise

Aux armes, citoyens

Formez vos bataillons

Marchons, marchons!

Qu’un sang impur

Abreuve nos sillons!

Vive L' Liberté! Vive L'Égalité! Vive L' Fraternité!

Fraternities are a way to have a tribe (i.e. a fraternity) within a tribe (i.e. a university).  The issue is whether the large tribe has a selection standard with which the smaller tribe agrees.  The selection criteria in European Universities was either already class based (e.g. Oxford, Cambridge, Eton, the “right” schools, etc.), or was merit based. ( e.g. the Sorbonne, Bologna, Copenhagen, etc.).  In many cases there are already colleges (schools, houses) within a university, so the need to join a smaller tribe is already provided.  Pembroke College is within Cambridge University.  You apply to Cambridge.  You are assigned to Pembroke.  Harry Potter applied to Hogwarts. Once at Hogwarts, he was sorted into Gryffindor House.

Joining a tribe is a perfectly natural and justifiable instinct ( “there is safety in numbers”).  Excluding members from your tribe on prejudice, is not a good thing.  ( e.g. Jim Crow laws, "No Irish  need apply").  The good purpose of a fraternity is such that when you travel to other places you can identify someone in your tribe ( e.g. same Fraternity, different chapter house). But fraternities are also exclusive (e.g. a potential member, a pledge, can be blackballed.)

In the European country with which the US is most familiar, the United Kingdom, there was already a very definite class system (“Upstairs, Downstairs”).  There was no need to exclude "lower" classes from the “right” schools, since  those schools were only for the “upper” classes anyway. The university was already class‑based, or in other countries where the society has no classes, there was no need to adopt an exclusive class structure within a university. This is not the case in the U.S.  Exclusive schools admit people who are not in your class (e.g. I am an Irish-Polish, Catholic, working-class graduate of an Ivy League university).  The alternative is to form fraternities, i.e. tribes, within those colleges where you can exclude the “wrong” people from your tribe.  Some that are excluded, may seek to form their own fraternities where they, and others like them, can be accepted, while others view this exclusion itself as folly ( “I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.”- Groucho Marx.)

Can fraternities do good? Absolutely.  Is there a benefit of joining with others? Absolutely.  Can fraternities exclude people? Yes, and that is their cost.  Members have to decide for themselves whether the benefits outweigh the costs. Fraternities don’t exist in European Universities because there was no need for Fraternities.

2022 Winter Olympics

 

The Way We Were

Memories
Light the corners of my mind
Misty watercolor memories
Of the way we were

What memories should we have of the 2022 Winter Olympics?

You can say that this is the Winter Olympics of Kamila Valieva, of Mikaela Shiffrin, of Eileen Gu, etc.  I will prefer to think of this as the Olympics of Finland's Iivo Niskanen, the Netherland’s Kai Verbij, and the United States’ Elana Meyers Taylor.

·       Kamila Valieva is the poster child for doping and cheating in sports.  But she is just that, a child.  She may have taken illegal drugs but she was told to take those illegal drugs by the adults who were responsible for her.  Blaming her is blaming the victim.

·       Mikaela Shiffrin might not have won any Gold Medals for the US at this Olympics but she did win Gold Medals in two previous Olympics, is the youngest winner of an Alpine skiing Olympic medal for the US, and is tied for the most Alpine skiing Olympic medals for a US team. In World Championships, she is the most decorated American alpine skier in history, having won the most medals overall, eleven,  a record six of them gold.  She was after all skiing for herself.  As an American, I can take vicarious thrills in her victories, but I can not blame her for not giving me more vicarious thrills.

·       Ailing (Eileen) Gu was raised in the US, will attend Stanford University, and might have closer ties with the US but chose to compete for China.  As Americans, we can no more “strip” China of those medals, unless we are also willing to give  Kaillie Humphries’ Gold Medal in the Women's Monobob to Canada, because Kaillie changed her citizenship from Canadian to the United States because of a dispute with her coach.

Instead can we celebrate-

·       Finland’s IIvo Niskanen who won a Gold Medal, in the Men's Cross-country Skiing 15km and instead of going off to celebrate or recover, he patiently waited 20 minutes for every one of the 94 competitors behind him to complete the race.

·       The Netherland’s Kai Verbij who backed off on the final crossover straight in his Speed Skating run, knowing he didn't have quite enough speed to get in front of Canada's Laurent Dubreuil.  Rather than a risk a collision, Verbij popped out of his racing crouch and slowed so he stayed clear of Dubreuil, who zipped away to capture the silver medal.

·       Elena Taylor who won the Silver Medal in the Women's Monobob and the Bronze Medal in the Two Woman Bobsled and will proudly carry the flag for the US during the closing ceremonies.  Despite the shabby treatment of past minority Olympians, such as Jesse Owens, Jim Thorpe, and Duke Kahanamoku, she clearly does not hold a grudge, for which this American is delighted.  And she recently survived COVID and an emergency C section to boot.

The Olympics should not be about remembering the way we were, but striving for the way we would like to be.