Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Storytellers II

 

The Glory of Love

Give a little, take a little
And let your little heart just cry a little
That's the story of
That's the glory of love

And those who tell stories are spreading that love.

Fatou Wurie told a story from her life on the March 8th podcast of the Moth.  Her Aunt was correct. She was not Bondo.  She does not have the cutting, Female Genetic Mutilation (FGM), that is the mark of Bondo and thus could not participate in her Grandmother’s Bondo funeral preparations.  But her Grandmother, who would not let her be marked as Bondo, was more correct.  She is a member of a bigger society, the world, and the mark of Bondo should not define her.  Any permanent marking, whether it is a gang tattoo, or FGM, does not give the individual the ability to leave that society.  The fact that Bondo FGM  is  done on young girls who did not, could not, make a lifetime choice, is so sad.

A person’s membership in a society is not, can not, be permanent. Life is change.  Saul famously became St. Paul on the road to Damascus.  A person should be judged by the content of their character, not by a permanent marking such as the color of their skin, which is a permanent marking that is inborn,  or a gang tattoo, or FGM, which is a permanent marking that is chosen by, or for, them.

Griots, storytellers, need listeners.  Thanks to Ms. Wurie for being a Griot.  I know that she has listeners in the Moth community, but she has definitely impressed this listener.

Monday, March 7, 2022

Jan 6th Committee Report

 One Day More

At the barricades of freedom
Shall I join my brothers there?
When our ranks begin to form
Do I stay or do I dare?
Will you take your place with me?

Who can handle the truth?

The humorist Carl Sandburg once remarked that “If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell”.  There seems to be a lot of yelling at the moment from some in the Republican Party.  The Jan 6th Select Committee is about to file its report which may include referring facts to Attorney General Merrick Garland for prosecution. The purpose of the Select Committee is to examine the truth concerning Jan 6th .  If new laws are needed they may be proposed.  If existing laws were violated, then those facts will be referred to the Justice Department for possible prosecution.

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said any criminal referral from the House “would probably have as much political taint on it as you can get.”  “To me it’s clearly politically driven,” he said.   Braun said Democrats are scrambling to change up the political narrative in response to Biden’s moribund job approval ratings and predicted launching a federal prosecution of Trump would be viewed along partisan lines.  ( The Hill, by Alexander Bolton 3

Sunday, March 6, 2022

The Future

 

Que sera, sera

Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be.
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera.

Is the future random? 

Remember Aesop’s fable of the Ant and the Grasshopper? The Ant works and stores food for the winter.  The Grasshopper plays, does not store food for the winter, and then as winter approaches has to beg the Ant for food. The Ant knows that winter comes every year.  He can’t do anything to prevent winter, but he knows that  it happens and prepares for it.  The Grasshopper acts as if the summer will continue forever.

The fable has been used to promote such divergent views as Industrialist versus Artist;  Greed versus Charity; etc.  The fable is ambivalent.  It can be summed up as “s*** happens, deal with it.” The Ant knew that winter was coming, because he saw the pattern that winter comes every year and he prepared to deal with it.  He was not a prepper or cultist who was preparing for some doomsday that might not happen. 

Hurricanes happen and while the exact landfall is not known, science can and does outline a probable path for the storm.  And that path of probability is important.  While you can not alter that path of probability with a Sharpie, it does provide warnings to residents in that cone of probability.  While the hurricane’s path is random, it does follow known laws, and while we cannot say where the hurricane will land, we can say where it will NOT land.

Science can not predict the future with certainty.  But science can assign probabilities to a future given certain starting points and actions along the way. The gold standard of science, 5 Sigma, Standard Deviations, is still only 99.99994% certain.  The idiots who won’t accept anything but 100% certainty attack the Theory of Evolution or the Theory of Relativity because they are “only a Theory”, i.e. are less than 100% certain.   Newton's “Law” of Gravity was corrected by Einstein’s Theory of Relativity.  Science has evolved such that Laws and certainty are understood to be unattainable mirages.

While we can’t predict a definite future, we can say what futures are not possible. The future may not yet be written, but believing that there is a future is why old men plant trees that will not mature until after they die, and why medieval  Cathedrals took hundreds of years to build.  Unless the first stone is laid in that Cathedral, it will never get built.  And the stones are not placed haphazardly. There is a plan to where the first, second, etc. stones should be placed.  We may not know what the future is, but we know what the future will not be, and maybe that will have to be good enough. 

We can’t change the impossible.  But many things are only improbable.  We can change the improbable. We may not be able to see the future.  But we can see what the future will NOT be, and hopefully that knowledge can be useful.

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Lauren Boebert

 

Be a Clown

Be A Poor Silly Ass
And You'll Always Travel First-Class,
Give 'Em Quips, Give 'Em Fun,
And They'll Pay To Say You're A-1.
If You Become A Farmer, You've The Weather To Buck,
If You Become A Gambler, You'll Be Stuck With Your Luck,
But Jack You'll Never Lack If You Can Quack Like A Duck
(Quack, Quack, Quack, Quack)
Be A Clown, Be A Clown, Be A Clown.

I wonder if Lauren Boebert knows that she is a Clown?

Thank the people of voters in Colorado’s Third Congressional District for entertaining the rest of the county by electing Representative Boebert to be a clown for the rest of us, instead of electing a real representative.  She gave up her career as the owner of Shooter’s Grille.  She has shown high school dropouts everywhere that you can get on a big stage.  She sent out Christmas cards posing with assault rifles giving new meaning to Peace on Earth (or else?).  She railed against liberals who posed with  Jeffrey Epstein, forgetting that Donald Trump posed with him frequently.  She married a convicted sex offender and now if she would just pretend his male member is a rifle sticking in her WAP, maybe she could get off, as well as him.  Then maybe he wouldn’t have to expose his male member to teenage girls in bowling alleys.  She heckled the President at the State of the Union and was booed by her colleagues.  She has left Twitter for Donald Trump’s Truth App but since that platform will not have the same exposure as Twitter, I hope she has taken steps to ensure that her antics can still amuse rest of us. If I want to know what is the correct side of any issue I just have to see what she is opposing and then support the opposite.  

No one tell her that the clowns who are admired, are someone you laugh with, not laugh at. Representative Boebert and the people of Colorado’s Third Congressional District, if we can’t have someone to laugh with, thank you for giving us someone we can laugh at.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Holding Out For A hero

Where have all the good men gone
And where are all the gods?
Where's the streetwise Hercules
To fight the rising odds?

Isn't there a white knight upon a fiery steed
Late at night, I toss and I turn
And I dream of what I need

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'til the end of the night
He's gotta be strong, and he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

I think I have found a hero and his name is Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

President Zelenskyy was the voice of Paddington Bear in the Ukrainian dubbings of the movies.  He was the winner of the Ukrainian edition of "Dancing With the Stars". He was the star of the Ukrainian sitcom “Servant of the People” in which he played the President of his country.  He won election as the real President in 2019 with over 73% of the popular vote. Since the invasion by Russia he has appeared unshaven, clad in a simple t-shirt,  and said that he is frightened.  But when given the opportunity to leave his country he said “I need ammunition, not need a ride.” No matter what happens in the days to come, he has proven himself to be hero. 

A hero is not someone who cheats at hockey, skiing, or judo to “win”.  A hero is not someone who appears shirtless on a horse, or poses with a rifle, over a  dead animal or not.  A hero is not someone who lies to his followers, but tells the truth without any concern for himself.  A bully inspires fear.  A hero inspires us to be courageous. He doesn’t have to be strong or fast.  Everyone knows the name Spartacus.  Anyone remember the name of the Roman General who killed Spartacus? May we all be heroes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2JR3FmvVAw

Friday, March 4, 2022

Peace

 

Let There be Peace on Earth 

With ev'ry step I take
Let this be my solemn vow
To take each moment and live
Each moment in peace eternally
Let there be peace on earth
And let it begin with me
 

Amen. 

I have blogged before about the Prisoner’s Dilemma excerpt from Golem in The Gears. https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2021/05/tough-but-fair-beats-always-being-nasty.html  

Imagine Sea Hag One as say Putin and Sea Hag Two as say Putie's BFF, Don "The Con", which currently is short for Confidence Man but someday, hopefully very soon, will also mean Convict. 

Let Golem One be my nominee for Man of the Decade, the greatest leader since Winston Churchill , whose phrase "I need ammunition, not a ride" will outlive us all, Volodymyr Zelensky.  Let Golem Two be say President Joe Biden. 

Those playing "Nasty" will always win games against those playing "Nice", but ONLY when they are in a two player game.  Those poor fools did not learn that if they want others to play with them, they have to play "Nice". sometimes.  Playing "Nice" is never a winning tactic, and is not a winning strategy in a two player game, but playing "Nice" sometimes, Tough But Fair, is a winning strategy in the long run when there are more than two players.  Believing that others have to play with you, or trade with you, or let you fly in their airspace, etc., is a bully's big mistake.  Screenwriter Bob Gale modeled "Back to the Future"'s bully Biff Tannen after Donald Trump's behavior in the NY tabloids back in the 1980s. If Number 45 doesn't see he that he is the joke, hopefully the rest of us will. 

Longfellow’ poem The Bells which was written during the height of the US Civil War, which Bing Crosby made into a Christmas Carol.   

Then rang the bells more loud and deep
God is not dead, nor doth He sleep
(Peace on Earth)
(Peace on Earth)
The wrong shall fail, the right prevail
With peace on Earth, good will to men
 

“The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” 

Let’s do more than pray for peace.  Let us live for peace.

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Wealth

 

Too Close for Comfort

Be wise, be fair, be sure, be there, behave, beware
Be wise, be smart, behave my heart
Don't upset your cart when she's so close.

Can society increase wealth in a manner that is FAIR?

If the mean and median are the same, the distribution is “normal”.  It is suggested that this is the distribution which most humans would also classify as “fair”.  If the mean wealth is $0 and the median wealth is $0 this merely means that some of the people have negative wealth (i.e. debt) while others have positive wealth.  This does not mean that there is no wealth, just that the Standard Deviation of wealth is not also $0. The variance is the square root of the Standard Deviation.  If the distribution was normal, the wealthiest 0.3% are those that have a wealth which is the Standard Deviation multiplied by three.  In other words, if the wealthiest 0.3% have a wealth of $1 million, then if the median wealth is zero and the average wealth is zero, then the Standard Deviation is $333,333 and the variance is 577.

During the COVID pandemic the phrase flatten the curve became well known. A naturally occurring statistical phenomena, such as hospital bed admittances with COVID when there are no safety precautions, would be a uniform normal distribution with a variance of 1.  Flattening the curve means increasing its variance.  A variance of 577, would be a very flat curve.  In order for it to also be a normal distribution,  it would mean that the poorest 0.3% must also have a debt of  $1 million.  Since this amount of debt is not likely, the distribution of wealth is most probably skewed to the wealthy, the median is less than the mean, and the distribution is NOT normal.

Society, all of the individuals with wealth, have an interest in increasing the median.  If the existing distribution is maintained, then an increase in wealth of the median will also increase the amount held by the wealthy.  However society can not increase the wealth unless, as they say in the US Constitution "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries", otherwise there is no incentive for inventors to invent or for artists to create new works of art.  Additionally, society may take other measures to increase its wealth, say by funding the programs of the New Deal or the Great Society.  In order to have the funds for these programs, society must raise funds in taxes, and therein lies the rub.  Those with existing wealth are loathe to part with that wealth in the form of taxes, which are the merely the way that society must raise its revenue.

Tax codes should raise revenue by preserving a fair distribution of wealth, or at the very least the existing distribution of wealth.  The problem is that beginning with the Reagan Tax Cuts, the tax code promoted a shift of wealth from the median to the wealthiest.  Additionally, and not surprisingly, this was also accompanied by a slowing of economic growth for all groups.

If society is to increase wealth, and not merely transfer wealth from the poor to the rich, the tax code should be revised to be fair.