Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Most Valuable Player

 

A Team

And they say
She's in the Class A Team
Stuck in her daydream
Been this way since eighteen

There is no I in Team.

I have argued that one of the defining characteristics of Mankind is Individual versus Team (the others being Nature versus Nurture; and  Fact versus Fiction). On that basis, both followers of baseball or football as team sports should be on the ranked highly as Team.

However football is, IMHO, an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. The National Football League, NFL, Most Valuable Player, MVP, has been awarded 67 times since 1957. (In 1997 the MVP was awarded to both Brett Favre and Barry Saunders, and in 2003 the Award was awarded to both  Peyton Manning and Steve McNair).  During that time quarterbacks have won 69% of all MVP awards, including 9 of the last 10 MVPs. Running Backs have won 27% of the time, most recently Adrian Peterson in 2012. Only three players have  won the award at any other position (Defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971, Placekicker Mark Mosley in 1982 and Linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986)

By contrast, no position been dominant in the MVP voting of baseball. The MVP has been awarded 199 times in Major League Baseball, MLB, since 1911. MVPs have been selected in both the National League and the American League in most of those years.  No position has dominated the sport. The highest ranked position is First Base with 18% of the MVPs. All other positions except one have more than 2% of the MVPs, with the lowest ranking being Relief Pitchers who have received the MVP 4 times. No Designated Hitter has won the MVP, although Shohei Ohtani, who was selected as the American League MVP in 2021, was both a Starting Pitcher ( a Position that won 11% of the MVPs) as well as a Designated Hitter. Four players have won at multiple positions.

Thus it appears that Football is an individual sport of a backs (Quarter and running) masquerading as a team sport, while baseball is a true team sport. Fans of Amercian football should not automatically be considered to be Team followers instead of Individuals followers. ( I admit to my own guilt. When  Tom Brady moved to the Buccaneers, I became a Bucs follower. Otherwise, even if I weren't a baseball fan, I would like to think that think I am ranked highly on the Team index.)

Clarence Thomas

One Toke Over the Line

I sail away a country mile
And now I'm returning and showing off my smile
I met all the girls and I loved myself a few
And to my surprise
Like everything else I've been through
It opened up my eyes
And now I'm one toke over the line, sweet Jesus 

Be careful of those who cry wolf. They probably are one toke over the line.

Clarence Thomas is a Justice of the Supreme Court. On Friday March 11, 2022, he stated at a hotel in Salt Lake City that the Supreme court was in danger of being politically compromised. It seems that Justice Thomas should know because he was the one who was doing the compromising.

  • In January of 2022, Justice Thomas was the lone dissenter on the Supreme Court on an opinion that Former President Trump should turn over confidential documents to the Congress Committee investigating the January 6th, 2021, Capital Riots.

  • In March of 2022, it was disclosed that Justice Thomas’s wife, Ginni, had texted with the White House Chief of Staff seeking to overturn the presidential election and had attended the rally preceding the Capitol Riots. Justice Thomas’s wife  was among those who would have benefited if had his dissent had been  the majority decision.

  • In April of 2022, Justice Thomas became the first sitting Supreme Court Justice who was photographed with, and appeared to endorse, a candidate for the Republican candidate for the Senate in Georgia, Herschel "The Turkey” Walker.

Senator Cruz said that Justice Thomas is a fine justice and should not have to recuse himself from any cases involving the election of 2020, including the investigation of election tampering by then President Donald Trump in among others, his infamous calls with Georgia's Governor Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger. Senator Cruz did suggest that Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson recuse herself from any cases involving Harvard University.

Senate Minority Leader "Yertle the Turtle" McConnell and House Minority Leader McCarthy both  defended Justice Thomas as did many other prominent Republicans.

The Supreme Court is in danger of becoming politicized. However the danger is coming from precisely those who are crying the loudest about the danger.  The call is coming from inside the house!!!


Sunday, April 10, 2022

Reverse Robin Hood

 

 Adventures of Robin Hood Theme

He called the greatest archers
To a tavern on the green,
They vowed to help the people of the king,
They handled all the trouble
On the English country scene,
And still found plenty of time to sing.

There has been a reverse Robin Hood at work in the US.

Using official US Census reports on income, the average household has a demonstrably smaller share of income, and the upper income households are receiving an increasing larger share of income. The effects may have been hidden by inflation, but these effects are evident.

Income by group is reported in current dollars and in 2019 dollars where the effects of inflation are considered ( e.g. 1979 dollars are restated as 2019 dollars).  If inflation is not considered, it appears that all income groups have increasing incomes.

However if inflation is considered the distribution of incomes is markedly different.

Mean incomes in 2019 USD in the lowest (0%-20%) through fourth (60%-80%) fifth have remained virtually constant, while the mean incomes in the top 5% have increased, particularly from 1981, the beginning of the Reagan, supply-side, tax cuts.

The distribution of income appears to be skewed to higher incomes, where that distribution should not include incomes less than zero. The Census reports the mean and median incomes. The ratio of the mean to the median has been steadily increasing over the reporting period. If the mean is not equal to the median, a third statistic, the mode or most common value, has been estimated by an empirical formula that can be used if the distribution is skewed moderately or less. If the mean, mode, and median are all equal, a distribution is said to be normal. If the distribution has a positive skew, i.e. towards higher incomes, the mean will be greater than the median which will be greater than the mode.


Without considering inflation, the estimated mode was continuously increasing until 1990, at which point it began an erratic decrease. However when inflation is considered, and a moving 5 year average is used to dampen year to year fluctuations, the mode of income has been  continually decreasing during the entire period.

The skewing of income toward higher incomes and the stagnation or decline of the most common, mode, income, has been masked by inflation, but when inflation is considered, the decline is evident.  Where is Robin Hood when you need him?


Friday, April 8, 2022

Geography

 

Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?

Well she sneaks around the world from Kiev to Carolina
She's a sticky-fingered filcher from Berlin down to Belize
She'll take you for a ride on a slow boat to China
Tell me where in the world is Carmen Sandiego?

Geography is destiny.

The capital of the United States is Washington, D.C. The financial capital of the United States is New York City.  The entertainment capital of the United States is Los Angeles. The capital of Country Music is Nashville, etc.

The capital of the Russian Federation is Moscow.  The financial capital of the Russian Federation is Moscow.  The entertainment capital of the Russian Federation is Moscow.

The United States has a polycentric geography.  There is not one major city or metropolitan region.  There are several.  The Russian Federation has a monocentric geography.  There are really only two major metropolises in the Russian Federation: Moscow and St. Petersburg/ Leningrad/ Petrograd.  That second city by its original name was the capital city of the Russian Empire when Tsar Peter the Great desired to create a European Capital.  It is probably convenient to consider Moscow and Petrograd as one region

If there is a single center, it becomes possible for one faction, or man, to dominate and control that center.  If that faction, or man, acts crazy, then the whole country may act crazy.  In the United States, if one man or faction controls one city, there are still centers that can be control by the opposition, which can then act as a check to that craziness.

There was more than one center in the Soviet Union, but these centers were in fact the major cities of conquered countries that were once part of the Russian Empire: Kviv/Kiev, Baku,  Kharkov, and Odessa in Ukraine; Minsk in Belarus; Baku in Azerbaijan; Tashkent in Uzbekistan; etc. Thus when they were no longer a part of Russia, there was no check on Moscow.

If there is a flash point that should concern us all, it is the isolated Russian Federation enclave on the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad.  This was once the East Prussian city of Königsberg that was captured  by the Soviet Union during WWII and became a major naval base.  If the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine because it feared it might join NATO, what must it think about this mostly military base that is surrounded by NATO countries.

Thursday, April 7, 2022

Stimulus

 

After Midnight

After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down
After midnight, we're gonna chug-a-lug and shout
We're gonna stimulate some action
We're gonna get some satisfaction
We're gonna find out what it is all about
After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down (after midnight, after midnight)

What kind of action does a supply-side stimulus get?

Supply side economics assumes that increasing the supply of goods can stimulate the economy.  This is the opposite from demand side economics, also known as a Keynesian stimulus, which seeks to increase the demand for goods, by increasing the purchasing ability of buyers. Actions during COVID such as increases in unemployment benefits, checks to everyone, or student debt relief have been demand side stimuluses, not supply side stimuluses.

To properly execute a supply-side policy, it is necessary to properly define the production equation of suppliers.  The production  equation is traditionally thought to be a function of only capital and labor. However capital is needed not only for investment but also for supplying the raw materials, goods, that are needed to produce a product.  Economists do not classify goods as simply as free and priced.  Economists use an additional attribute besides price, Exclusivity.  A good is Exclusive if it can not be used by more than one person at a time. For example my eating a piece of bread means that you can not also eat that piece of bread, i.e. it is Exclusive.  By contrast, my watching a movie does not prevent you from also watching that movie, i.e. it is Non-exclusive.

This leads to not just two classes of goods, Private and Public, but four classes of goods. These include Priced and Exclusive, which are Private goods, and Non-priced and Non‑exclusive, which are Public goods. But it also includes Natural Monopolies: Priced and Non-exclusive; and Common Resources: Non-priced and Exclusive. Suppliers acknowledge natural monopolies, e.g. a cable TV company.  My watching cable TV does not prevent my neighbor from also watching cable TV, but both of us separately pay the cable TV provider.  ( if you have cut the cord like I have, substitute Disney+ or any streaming provider in this example.) The initial cost of natural monopolies  is often high, thus society offers protections, e.g. an exclusive franchise to offer cable, to industries to encourage then to make that initial investment.  Industry seems less inclined to acknowledge  Common Resources.  Fishing stocks are a common resource.  It is exclusive. If I eat a fish, then you can not eat that same fish. That fish might be free and the stock may seem vast but it IS limited.  Just as it is in society’s interest to encourage industries to invest in natural monopolies, society may spend to increase, or regulate to protect, that common resource.  Fishing stocks are regulated to prevent overfishing.  An educated workforce may be necessary for suppliers, but education is a common resource and society invests in education to provide this work force.  Just because a good does not have a price does not mean that society can’t regulate, or spend, to ensure that this common resource will continue to exist.

“Supply side” economics, as it is currently practiced, stimulates the economy by encouraging INVESTMENT.  If the production equation did not require any common resources, including public education and public highways, as raw materials, then neglecting measures to stimulate labor, encouraging investment should increase supply in the long run.  However if the production equation relies on common resources, eliminating regulations on, and decreasing expenditures for, common resources will in the long run DECREASE supply.  Thus the so-called “Supply side” policies have seemed to serve only to reward investment. It provides no reward for labor, and reduces common resources.  Truly supply-side economics would also ensure that common goods, as regulated and/or provided by society, are available. Supply side stimulus might be an alternative to demand side stimulus, but what had been practiced has NOT been supply-side economics, even if it is called supply-side economics.  It is more properly “INVESTMENT”  economics at the  expense of Labor and Common Resources.

Critical Race Theory III

 

Children Will Listen

Careful the wish you make,
Wishes are children
Careful the path you take,
Wishes come true.

Careful the spell you cast,
Not just on children
Sometimes the spell may last
Past what you can see,
And turn against you.
Careful the tale you tell
That is the spell,
Children will listen...

Can children handle the Truth?

On May 17th, 2022,  the Mansfield, Massachusetts Town Meeting will vote on Article 20 “To see if the Town will vote to prohibit public K-12 schools in the Town of Mansfield from teaching, instructing or training students to adopt or believe, or causing anyone else to teach, instruct or train any students to adopt or believe, certain DIVISIVE CONCEPTS, regarding race or sex.”   Is it necessary to explain what these DIVISIVE CONCEPTS are?

The problem appears to be that certain truths are “inconvenient" and make people uncomfortable.  But that is no reason to shield children from the Truth.  Children will understand as much of the Truth as they are ready to understand. 

Which reminds me of a joke.  A second grader comes into a room and asks his father “What is sex?”.  His father is surprised to face this question so early and proceeds to deliver the “Talk”.  His son’s eyes glaze over and after the talk is over he asks,  “But I don’t understand.  Do I check the “M” box or the “F” box when the form asks the Sex question?”.

I am old enough to know the Truth about Santa Claus.  But if you drive past my home in December you will see a lighted display where Santa’s Sleigh is flying through the air. Because I know that children will also want the Truth about Santa.  And like the response to Virginia long ago, I believe that the Truth about Santa is “He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! how dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus. 

I have lived in Mansfield for more than 40 years, but it was not until last year that I found that the Town was named in honor of  William Murray, the First Earl of Mansfield.  He was Chief Justice of England before the Revolutionary War.  During his illustrious career, one of his most famous decisions was the Somerset  decision.  James Somerset was a slave who escaped in England and was recaptured by his “owner”, a Boston Customs official.  Somerset was to be transported by his "owner" to Jamaica and sold.  The question Lord Mansfield was asked to resolve was whether he should be allowed to be transported from England. He ruled that slavery was not legal under English Law and that "no master ever was allowed here (England) to take a slave by force to be sold abroad".

I believe that this is not taught in Mansfield School today.  My sons were never taught this.  To protect school children from ever hearing such a DIVISIVE CONCEPT, I would propose that if the voters approve Article 20, that they also change the name of the Town from Mansfield.

Children will listen.  Our children will learn from this proposed Article that you should hide from the Truth. Is this the lesson that we want to be teaching?

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Tribes

 

We Are Family

All of the people around us they say
Can they be that close
Just let me state for the record
We're giving love in a family dose

Join in with me!

Man is genetically wired to join groups. Man's smallest group is a family. Families may join together to form Clans. Clans may join together to form Tribes. Tribes may join together to form Nations. You can be a member of more than one group. I am a member of Red Sox Nation. I am also an American .  There are those who live in the Canadian Maritimes Provinces who are also members of Red Sox Nation. ( They probably are not also Bruin hockey fans, but that is another sport and subject). It is thus possible to be an American or a Canadian National and to still belong to Red Sox Nation.

Man is also genetically wired to be fearful of, and not trust, those in other groups. And that creates a conflict when a person is in more than one group. For example, Americans are guaranteed freedom of religion. Thus it is possible, for example, to be an American and a Catholic, or an American and a Southern Baptist  ( As someone who was born in Rhode Island, which was founded by the Baptist Roger Williams, who was exiled from the Massachusetts Bay Colony for his religion, I think Roger Williams would be appalled that there were Southern Baptists). When John F. Kennedy ran for President, he had to convince a  Southern Baptist conference that he was running as an American, and owed no allegiance to a foreign Pope.

Most religions and cultures recognize this problem and have admonitions for the protection and honoring of strangers. They recognize that the energy spent in excluding others does not serve to advance the purpose of the group. John Donne famously said that “No man is an island”. When you try to exclude others by building a moat around your group, you are trying to act as if you are an island.  This is not a game of Survivor. Let’s not vote people off the island. Instead let’s welcome them if they wish to move to the island. What was true in 1776, is true today.  "If we don’t hang together, we will all hang separately.”