Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Strategy

 

Poker Face

Can't read my, can't read my No, he can't read my poker face (She's got me like nobody) Can't read my, can't read my No, he can't read my poker face (She's got me like nobody)

You shouldn’t need a poker face.

The idea behind a poker face is that you are trying to hide from the other bettors. That is whether you have a good hand or a bad hand.  That way you can more convincing bluff (lie) when betting.  So you only need a poker face if you are going to successfully lie.

If you don’t plan on lying, then you don’t need a poker face. In a two-person game, the optimal strategy is to do anything to win, including lying.  In a three-or-more person game, the optimal strategy is to make your move on each round based on your opponent’s move in the prior round.  Kind of "Do unto others as they did unto you."  Notice this is not vengeance, retribution, the start of a feud.  If your opponent starts being nice, then you start being nice on the next round.  If someone is trying to separate you from your group so that you and they are in a bilateral contest, then expect them to lie.  If people are trying to get you to join their group for a contest, then expect them not to lie.

But wait a minute, aren’t there usually more than two people in a poker game.  Yes but every hand is the luck of the draw, a good hand or a bad hand.  You are playing against the deck, and merely betting against others.  If you drew a Royal Flush on every hand, then you would not need a poker face.

MAGA? III

 

Tomorrow

The sun'll come out tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun
Just thinking about tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow, 'til there's none
When I'm stuck with a day that's gray and lonely
I stick out my chin and grin and say
The sun'll come out tomorrow
So you gotta hang on 'til tomorrow, come what may
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love you, tomorrow
You're always a day away

Live for today, but plan for a better tomorrow.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics says that everything seeks a state of lower energy and in doing so, loses some its  own energy to Entropy.  Kind of depressing isn’t it. 

But since the human life span (not life expectancy, don’t confuse the two) on average is less than 100 years, there are no tomorrows for any of us alive today in 2123.  For the individual there is no tomorrow in 2123, but for the world (neglecting the quality of that world, which is our subjective opinion) there will be a tomorrow in 2123. 

If tomorrow is better than today, then yesterday had to be worse than today, because today is yesterday’s tomorrow.  If you believe that the past, MAGA, is better than today, then you also have to believe that tomorrow will be worse than today.  And you thought that increasing entropy was depressing!

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Winning V

 

The Winner Takes It All

The winner takes it all The loser's standing small Beside the victory That's her destiny

Winning isn’t everything!

In any choice,   there is a 50% chance that you made one choice then there is a 50% chance that you made the other choice.  The problem is when you think that only your choice is right, i.e. 100%.  Actually it doesn’t work that way.  If you have humility, or tolerance, you are willing to concede that the choice that you did not make might be right.  In that case following the 50 million Frenchmen can’t be wrong, the wisdom of crowds, etc,  then you should want to know the variance of all choices.  You can be sure that 68% of all choices are within the mean choice, the odds, plus the square root of that variance.  This is the 68/95/99 rule of normal distributions.  It is also why the scientific standard is 3 Sigma which means that 99.97% of the observations are within three times the square root of the variance.

This sounds like complex math but it is not.  95% of the travel times have an on-time arrival which means that the mean time plus 2 times one square root of the variance is 95% of the means travel time, which means that there si an on time arrival 95% of the time.  (The idea of Joe Six Pack doing Square Roots in his head without thinking is mind boggling!)  If a verdict is Guilty or Not Guilty, a unanimous jury has only a 0.02% of occurring by accident.  IOW, a unanimous jury has a 99.98% chance of being correct, assuming that it was not lied during the presentation of evidence or that it was not biased to select a Not Guilty or Guilty verdict. IOW a unanimous jury is 3 sigma.

If the jury system follows statistical rules, and travelers follow statistical rules, then shouldn’t important decisions should just be better than the odds,  a simple majority.  The winner might take it all, but the winner does NOT speak for the group, only for himself.  Or, to use a quote from my favorite movie, Casablanca, when resolving the triangle of Rick-Ilsa-Victor, “If that plane leaves the ground and you're not with him, you'll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life.” The winner in a contest of two, only takes the loser’s share, but unless the rest of the group already gave its share to the loser, that was NOT all.  We’ll always have Paris, and you can't take that away from me!

Social Media

 

Rubberneckin'

Stop, look, and listen baby that's my philosophy
If your rubberneckin' baby well that's all right with me
Stop, look, and listen baby that's my philosophy
It's called rubberneckin' baby but that's all right with me

Freedom of speech has to be balanced by a  freedom to NOT listen

WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court, exploring free speech rights in the social media era, on Monday agreed to consider whether the Constitution’s First Amendment bars government officials from blocking their critics on platforms like Facebook and Twitter. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-decide-if-public-officials-can-block-critics-social-media-2023-04-24/

What those bringing suit seem to be missing is that freedom of speech means that I tolerate your speech, not that I agree with the point that you are making in that speech. Tolerance is NOT acceptance, it is uh,…tolerance.

Continuing to speak after your point has been heard is NOT speech, it is harassment. The question should not be "Should social media platforms allow public figures to block figures?", it should be "Should social media platforms allow individuals to harass public figures?"

It gets confusing because social media seems like a public forum to those doing the posting, but to those who operate, and advertise on, that social media platform is a private forum. If those operating the social media platforms do NOT allow public figures to block postings, then they are legally, as a private party, participating in that harassment. You can speak, including postings on social media, but public figures, like all figures, have to be free not to listen. If those are elected public figures, then that blocking, not listening, can and should be, an election issue. But if the voters in that election decide that the speech was harassment, e.g. elect the candidate any way, then that should be the end of it.

On Beyond Einstein

 

They All Laughed

They all laughed at Christopher Columbus When he said the world was round They all laughed when Edison recorded sound They all laughed at Wilbur and his brother When they said that man could fly They told Marconi Wireless was a phony

I have sent this to physicists, but just so it is publicly dated.

I have since corrected the relativistic mass formula on a hyperbolic surface

The formulae for momentum, force, and energy are those established by Isaac Newton.

Momentum is mass times velocity, m *∂x/∂t.=mv.

Force is the change in, differential of, momentum, m*∂2x/∂t2 =m ∂v/∂t =ma.

Energy is the integral of the change in momentum, ∫ m ∂2x/∂t2 ∂t.= ∫ m*v*∂v.

If m is a function of v, then this can be solved by integration by parts, and it is, ½*m*v2- ∫ m*∂v.

Classical, Newtonian, physics assumes that mass is a constant at every velocity including zero, m0, such that:

Momentum = m0 ∂x/∂t=mv

Force= m0 *∂2x/∂t2 =m0 * a

Energy = m0 ∫v ∂v = ½ * mv2

Newton’s Law of Gravity is because if a system of two masses experience a change in momentum, then that change is assumed to be due to a force ( gravity).

F=G* (m01 * m02)/d122 , G=6.67×10-11

where d12 is the distance between mass 1 and mass 2, and m0x is the rest mass for mass x. 

Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity assumes that mass is NOT a constant but is instead a function of velocity, and that the frame of reference is important. If the frame of reference is flat Euclidean space, then the Lorentz Transform applies, and this becomes:

Momentum = m0 *(1/√(1-(v/c)2))*v

Force= m0 *(1/√(1-(v/c)2)*v dv = m0 *(1/√(1-(v/c)2))*a

Energy = ∫m0 *(1/√(1-(v/c)2)v dv = m0 *(1/√(1-(v/c)2)) c2

If this is solved by integration by parts, then you get Einstein’s triangle of energy,  mc2½mv2+m0c2

A problem with this interpretation is that it allows v>c where the mass becomes imaginary, and has a paradox at v=c, where the energy has to,  simultaneously, be both infinite and zero.

In a flat space, there is no reason for a system of two or more masses to seek a lower energy system and any change in momentum of these objects would still appear to be accompanied by a force (gravity).

F=G*(m01 (1/√(1-(v1/c)2)))*m02 (1/√(1-(v2/c)2))))/d122 ,G=6.67×10-11

where d12 is the distance between mass 1 and mass 2, and m0x is the rest mass of mass x.

If space is not flat, but is hyperbolic[1], then the equations might instead be

Momentum = m0 * (1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v/c)2))))*v

Force= m0 * (1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v/c)2))))v ∂v = m1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v/c)2)))0 * ()*a

Energy = ∫m0 *(1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v1/c)2)))*v ∂v = m0(1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v/c)2))))* c2

This solution does not create a paradox at v=c , and it is undefined, not imaginary, when v>c.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics requires that the energy of a system of objects will seek the state of lowest energy and any reduction in the energy of the system will be equal to an increase in the entropy of the system. In curved, hyperbolic, space, two masses will each seek to lower their energy and approach a common center along a geodesic. This change in energy will be accompanied by a change in momentum. But while in curved, hyperbolic, space, this could be viewed in flat space as an apparent force, like centrifugal force, and NOT an intrinsic force. The apparent force of gravity is these masses seeking to lower their energy, maximize their entropy, and this is

G*m01*(1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v1/c)2))))*m02*(1/(ln(2*cosh(√(1-(v2/c)2))))/exp(-d12),G=6.67×10-11

where d12 is the distance between mass 1 and mass 2, and m0x is the rest mass of mass x. 

If velocity is less than 10% of the speed of light, then there is less than a 1% difference between assuming that mass is constant or that the mass varies with velocity. In this case classical, Newtonian, physics is used because it is simpler. It is not until the velocity is greater than 82.2% of the speed of light that there is an appreciable difference between the Euclidean, flat, and the hyperbolic functions of relativistic mass.

As shown by Mabkhout[1], assuming that the universe is hyperbolic can explain many apparent paradoxes between the age and the size of the observable universe. If the universe is hyperbolic, but it is viewed from a flat frame of reference, perspective, it would appear to undergo inflation at its beginning. If the universe is hyperbolic, then there is no need to resort to dark energy or dark matter to explain its continued expansion. If the universe is hyperbolic, then the Planck Energy is consistent with the Planck Length. If the universe is hyperbolic, then the paradox of rotating galaxies can be resolved. If the universe is hyperbolic, then gravity is an apparent force, not an intrinsic force,  and no effort should be taken to include gravity as a force in the standard model. If the universe is hyperbolic, then the apparent discrepancy in the Hubble Constant might be merely be the computing of that constant in a flat frame of reference while measuring it in hyperbolic frame of reference, i.e. it is no different that the seeming paradox that a Great Circle Distance on the Earth is not the hypotenuse of the triangle formed by the two points at each end of that Great Circle.

If hyperbolic geometry is used to compute statistics, then every moment, not merely odd moments, about the mean, are zero. The Standard Deviation is then a measurement of Error, not of Variance. Even a system without mean error, or any individual errors, will still have a Variance.

Just as on the surface of the Earth, Euclidean geometry is used unless the distance between two points is large compared to the radius of the earth, ( i.e. the Earth is flat locally but spherical  globally), so too the universe can be assumed to be Euclidean, flat, unless the distances and speeds involved are enormous (i.e. the universe is flat locally, but hyperbolic globally.)

 



[1] Mabkhout SA. Non dark hyperbolic universe. Phys Astron Int J. 2019;3(1):1-12. DOI: 10.15406/paij.2019.03.00148 accessed  at https://medcraveonline.com/PAIJ/non-dark-hyperbolic-universe.html on April 17, 2023

Friday, April 21, 2023

A.I. II

 

A.I.

Artificial intelligence
Way, you love me
Love the way you love me
It's so clear
You make everything inside me feel
Just automatic hurt
Bring me back tonight'
Cause you're intelligent, so real
So real

Artificial Intelligence? Are you kidding?

While Artificial Intelligence, AI, is getting a lot of press these days, it is not really anything new. Only the terms are new. It used to be called Machine Learning. Before machines, it used to be called the Wisdom of the Crowd. When lower animals do it, it is called Neural Networks or Instinct. “Artificial” is because it is done quickly by computer, the artificial part that does not mind processing many, many observations. The “Intelligence” part should more properly be called “Inference”, because there is nothing intelligent about it. If it were intelligent, it would know what caused those inferences. What results are correlations given a multitude of observations  However, the correlations can themselves have problems.

1.      Spurious Correlations            

      Just because there is a strong correlation between an event and something else that is observed at the same time, it does not mean that this correlation has any meaning. There is a book about spurious correlations.  (Virgen, Tyler; Spurious Correlations; Hachette Books; New York; 2015)  My favorite is that there is a strong correlation between drowning deaths in pools and the number of Nicholas Cage film appearances in a given year. No mater how bad people think Nicholas Cage is, I don’t think that is the reason people drown in pools. 

2.     Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.          

      A correlation can only be made of observations that were made. If the sample excludes certain observations, any correlations would be suspect. Famously, the Literary Digest predicted that FDR would lose the 1936 election to Alf Landon because its readers said in a poll that they were overwhelming voting for Mr. Landon. However the  public included many, many voters who were NOT subscribers to Literary Digest. In November, Roosevelt won the election in an unprecedented landslide, winning every state except Maine and Vermont while also winning the popular vote by 24%. If you don’t make an observation, then the correlation to that observation will of course be zero. And therefore your sample will be biased.

    3.      Correlation is not causation        

      Just because there is a correlation it does not mean that the observation was caused by the event. It takes intelligence to make sense of how and why a correlation exists. There were thousands of years of observations of the planets. The popular wisdom was that the planets revolved about the Earth, and that observations of planets were explained by retrograde motion of some planets. In fact it took Copernicus to intelligently propose that all of the solar system planets, including the earth, really revolved about the sun. 

If someone tells you that AI told them so,  remember this. Then you won’t have to be like Galileo when the inference was that all objects in space move around the Earth, and be forced to recant, as he did, of his observations of the moons of Jupiter. But still they move.

Thursday, April 20, 2023

Luicifer

 

It Ain't Necessarily So

Things that you're liable To read in that Bible It ain't necessarily so

Did Lucifer get cast out of heaven?

The Old Testament of the Bible does not include any tale of Lucifer being cast out of heaven by God. Revelations 12 in the New Testament includes a mention of the story of the War in Heaven, but I would like to suggest that Lucifer cast himself out of heaven because he came to close to an absolute, i.e. God. There appears to be two portions of our universe: an orderly portion, e.g. heaven, and a chaotic portion, e.g. h- e- double hockey sticks. 

Our portion, which is NOT heaven, is governed by Entropy. The Second Law of Thermodynamics says that the Entropy of the Universe is increasing and that any action which reduces energy will be accompanied by an equal increase in entropy. The ultimate fate of our universe is when all energy is in its lowest state and every amount above that minimum has been converted to entropy. A trickle of water begins as orderly. If it exceeds the capacity of the stream bed, then it may become white water rapids, but eventually that stream flows into a large body of water (i.e. a lake) where it becomes still.

The size, variance of the chaotic portion of the universe appears to be 0.52π2/3. It is suggested that this is not an accident. 0.5 is the odds of a binary choice. π is Pi, the mathematical symbol related to a circle, perfection, an absolute. 3 is the minimum size of a stable group,  ( E.g., a trinity). It is also suggested that the size of the chaotic portion of the universe is equal to the size of the orderly portion of the universe.

Order can arise from Chaos, but only as a means of increasing Entropy. That is, two atoms can undergo fusion to become a single atom with lower energy, increasing Entropy, and while this appears to be more orderly, but this is only a temporary waypoint until its eventual further decay, release of energy, and an further increase in entropy.

I would suggest that in casting himself out of heaven, Lucifer, Satan, was trying to become a single member who approached the absolute, exhibited parabolic behavior, not hyperbolic behavior. If there is an example of hyperbolic behavior it is orderly, favors a group, is a System Optimal solution. If there is an example of parabolic behavior, it selfishly favors only the individual, is a User Optimal solution. Observations of hyperbolic behavior in a chaotic domain are examples of orderly behavior. Observations of parabolic behavior in a chaotic domain are exmples of chaotic behavior.

Whether it is “I am the Lord thy God. Thou shall have no God before me” or Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity where objects can not exceed the speed of light, an absolute, you can try to reduce error, but to err is human, to forgive is divine. Don’t try to be something that you are not.  By definition humans will always have error because they are not Divine. Have humility, not hubris, and accept that, or risk also casting  yourself into chaos..