Republicans VII

 

Battle Hymn of the Republic

He has sounded forth the trumpet that shall never call retreat
He is sifting out the hearts of men before His judgment-seat
Oh, be swift, my soul, to answer Him! Be jubilant, my feet!
Our God is marching on!

Glory, glory, hallelujah!
Glory, glory, hallelujah!
Glory, glory, hallelujah!
Our God is marching on! 

It would be very hard to argue that Abraham Lincoln was a RINO.

When the US Constitution was adopted, a citizen supposedly asked Benjamin Franklin what kind of government he had given us . He is supposed to have replied, "A republic, if you can keep it." That is a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, …where the people elect representatives to serve them. Abraham Lincoln was the first Republican president, but he was also the 16th republican president. He was assassinated  serving that republic.

When the Republican party was founded, it welcomed the self-serving Whigs and bigoted Know-Nothings into their party as long as they opposed the expansion of slavery into federal territory. Unfortunately, the selfish descendants of Whigs and the bigoted descendants of Know-Nothings are ascendant at the moment in the Republican Party to the detriment of the republic. This is not the first time that this has happened. It happened during the impeachment of Andrew Johnson partly because the Republican Congress could not abide a Democrat serving as President. It happened during the Electoral Crisis of 1876 when the Republican Congress agreed to end Reconstruction to preserve their federal power. It happened when the Republican Mugwumps opposed the corruption of Republican James Blaine and resulted in the election of Democrat Grover Cleveland as president. Each time the Republican party eventually came to its senses, backed away from the cliff, and did not destroy itself and/or the republic. Let us pray to God that this another of those times.

Hush Money Verdict

 

 

Shake it Off 

'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off (hoo-hoo-hoo)
Heartbreakers gonna break, break, break, break, break
And the fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off (hoo-hoo-hoo) 

And I guess pundits gonna tout, tout, tout, tout, tout 

I admit to being a tout myself but unlike pundits, I know that a single event like a jury verdict is random and can not be determined. Still I can't resist the opportunity to make a prediction, to tout, the verdict of that little trial in NYC.   

Did Trump have an affair with Stormy Daniels, nee Stephanie Clifford?   I admit to benefiting from the testimony of Ms. Daniels.  I could not understand the context of the transaction before, but I did after that testimony.  It is no more an "affair" than E. Jean Carroll had a "affair" with Donald Trump.  It was a sexual encounter, not an affair. 

Did DJT benefit from Stormy Daniels not disclosing this before the election?  Almost certainly, and the testimony of Hope Hicks was that this was the reason for the payment. 

Was a transaction with Stormy Daniels even too sleazy for the National Enquirer, and if so how sleazy must that be 😆  and was any transaction to "catch and kill" a campaign contribution? That was David Pecker's testimony. 

Was Stormy Daniels paid for her silence and did this happen before the election?  Yes. That is the testimony of Michael Cohen and confirmed by corroborating evidence. 

Did DJT falsify business records to hide this transaction?  Yes, but after the election. 

Is this falsification of business records a misdemeanor under NY law and not the felony as charged?  Unfortunately, IMHO, yes.  The falsification happened after the election, and the statue of limtaions on any misdemeanor has passed, so it was technically not a campaign contribution and thus I expect the jury to find DJT "Not Guilty" as charged. 

Will DJT lie, er...present the "alternate fact",  that a finding of "Not Guilty" (or a hung jury) is a finding of "Innocence"? DJT did after his two impeachments.  He did after his E. Jean Carroll criminal rape trial.  He claimed after the Supreme Court's Colorado opinion that he was found innocent of insurrection.  But just as speed is not acceleration, "Not Guilty" is NOT "Innocence". A "Not Guilty" verdict only means that the law as charged was not violated and as Dickens said long ago, "The law is an idiot.  An ass" 

This means that DJT might win in this Court of Law, but hopefully the testimony has meant that he lost in the Court of Public Opinion, and his strategy of delay, running out the clock, only works if he also wins in the Court of Public Opinion.  

IOW, DJT may have won the battle, but he lost the war. Get ready for bad things in November.  But DJT's behavior in the NYC tabloids years ago was Bob Gale's inspiration for Biff Tannen in Back to the Future.  And remember that had a happy ending. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvacBzZtYag

Commandments

 

At Your Command

I had you, I held you, you gave me your all
Your love dreams I shattered beyond recall
Now that I've lost you, please understand
I'm here forever at your command 

Not commandments, warnings 

As a parent, I remember warning my then toddlers not to touch a hot stove.  It might have sounded like a commandment to a toddler, but it was only meant as a warning that the toddler would not like the consequences of touching a hot stove. 

By the same token, the Ten Commandments might be warnings from God that not following these would bring bad consequences.  And what if “Do not eat of the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil” to Adam in the Garden of Eden was a warning, not a commandment.  We need warnings as toddlers just as much as we need handrails in bathtubs as we get older.  They are there for our safety, protection, not to restrict us.  Commandments are ONLY there to restrict us. "Danger, Will Robinson' is a warning, not a commandment. 

Variance

 

It Ain’t The Meat It’s The Motion

It ain't the meat, it's the motion
Makes your daddy wanna rock
It ain't the meat, it's the motion
It's the movement that gives it the sock

And it ain’t the average, it’s the variance.

“The Possible Collapse of the U.S. Home Insurance System
The Daily ( a NY Times Podcast)

Across the United States, more frequent extreme weather is starting to cause the home insurance market to buckle, even for those who have paid their premiums dutifully year after year. Christopher Flavelle, a climate reporter, discusses a Times investigation into one of the most consequential effects of the changes.

Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000655653194”

In the climate change crisis, much attention has been given to the increase in AVERAGE global temperatures. That will certainly impact the most vulnerable areas. But since weather is a random event, it depends on two parameters: the location, which corresponds to the average; and the VARIANCE, the range of those random events. It is the variance that is at the heart of the insurance industry. Insurance is a means to deal with the unlucky by using insurance payments from many to pay the claims of the very unlucky. But as the variance increases, the proportion of wealth of the very unlucky increases and this affects everyone, not just the very unlucky. If the variance becomes too extreme, and it has, the insurance system may collapse, which is the subject of the podcast above. While the effects of Climate Change, and the effects of sea rise from average temperature rise, may impact only those in coastal areas,  if the variance also increases, then it impacts everyone, including those NOT in coastal areas.

The increase in variance is also why reducing government expenditures as close to zero as possible may NOT be wise in a growing economy. By fixing the average starting wealth as close to zero as possible, if there is any growth, then the variance must increase to capture this growth. But variance increases for the unlucky too, not just for the lucky.  A foolish fixation on NOT keeping the variance the same when the economy grows and instead increasing the Universal Basic Expenditure for all, requires that more of the growth be distributed to the lucky. But increasing the variance in this manner, also increases the number of the unlucky. By pretending that is a zero-sum game in an increasing economy, a decrease in the share of income of losers will be balanced by the share of income going to the winners. This was discussed in a previous post. https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2023/09/distribution-of-income-ii.html

There is a joke among statisticians that is intended to illustrate variance. A good variance is one where your head is the same temperature as your feet, in which case your body has the same average temperature. You might have the same average temperature if your head is in an oven and your feet are in a freezer. In the latter case the variance is much, much greater, even if the average is the same and your situation is much worse.  IOW, it ain't the average, it's the variance.

Running Out The Clock

 

Wrecking Ball

When the game has been decided
And we're burnin' down the clock
And all our little victories and glories
Have turned into parking lots
When your best hopes and desires
Are scattered to the wind
And hard times come and hard times go and
Hard times come and hard times go and
Hard times come and hard times go and
Hard times come and hard times go and
Hard times come and hard times go
Yeah, just to come again

Bring on your wrecking ball
Bring on your wrecking ball
C'mon and take your best shot
Let me see what you got
Bring on your wrecking ball

WHAT the Boss said!

Bruce Springsteen had the misfortune of releasing his Wrecking Ball at virtually the same time as Miley Cyrus’s more popular and different Wrecking Ball.  That is unfortunate because I heard the Boss sing it in person ( and Donald Trump,  I have been in several  Springsteen crowds.You may dream of having more people than the Boss as you did at your Wildwood, NJ rally on May 11, 2024, BUT YOU SIR ARE NO BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN).

It is unfortunate that it did not become more widely played, because it has IMHO the finest words by which to live.  Your opponent may think they have dominated you,  forced you to burn down the clock, and give up before the game is over.  But play on as hard as you can against that opponent.  “So hold tight to your anger, Hold tight to your anger, Hold tight to your anger, And don't fall to your fears”. “I will stand my ground, I won't back down”.  “Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day. Rage, rage against the dying of the light”.   BRING ON THAT WRECKING BALL.

Jolly Good Show

 

My Country ‘Tis of Thee.

My country, 'tis of thee,
sweet land of liberty,
of thee I sing:
land where my fathers died,
land of the pilgrims' pride,
from every mountainside
let freedom ring!

Or “God Save the King” as the British might sing.

The United States and the United Kingdom/Great Britain/England are different countries on opposite sides of the pond, the Atlantic Ocean. They are two great countries separated by a common language. (Cue appropriate spit take by an American hearing a Brit say he is going to “knock up”, by which he only means “call on”, an old girlfriend). They are also two countries with very different forms of government. In the United States, the executive and legislative functions are completely separate. Under the British parliamentary system, the executive and legislative functions are combined. In the United States, this would be as if MAGA Mike Johnson was also the head of the executive branch.

The Conservatives/Tories have had a  recent run of 13 years in office that is likely to change in the election later this year. According to some polls,  the opposition to the Tories, the Labor party, have a better than 20% advantage among likely voters. It is so bad that while the ruling and minority parties are supposed to sit on opposite sides in the House of Parliament, this may not be possible if there are too many members of the ruling party. The minority party is supposed to also form a shadow executive branch, but it may not have enough members to form this branch. If Brexit and its aftermath have been a lot of fun, just wait, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Meanwhile, as bad as things are in the USA, they could be worse. MAGA Mike has a hard enough time serving as Speaker of the House. Imagine if he was President as well!

Technically I am aware that the United Kingdom describes Great Britain AND Northen Ireland, and England is only one country in  Great Britain, along with Scotland and Wales, but the United Kingdom parliament, is the British or English, parliament as far as Americans are concerned. Our bad. And I realize that Brexit has created difficulties between the Irish Republic which is an EU member and Northern Ireland which is no longer an EU member, but who share a land border. The fact that this land border has attracted so much consternation, must amuse the Swiss, who seem to have managed an EU/non-EU land border with no difficulty for many years. No one tell the Swiss that this is an insurmountable problem, okay?

Imagination Matters

 

It Don’t Matter to Me

It don’t matter to me
If you really feel that
You need sometime to be free
Time to go out searching for yourself
Hoping to find
Time to go to find.

But some things do matter

Imagination matters. If the answer is a complex number, and the coefficient of the imaginary portion of that complex number is zero, it does NOT mean that it is no longer a complex number, and the imaginary axis can be dropped. It only means that the coefficient of the imaginary axis is zero.

A case in point is the formula for the variance of a logistics, sech squared, distribution. As in most random distributions, it is defined by two parameters, a location, µ, and a range, a function of the variance, s. Its Probability Density function, PDF, for a given value of x is  

1/(4*s)*sech²((x-µ)/(2*s))

Its Cumulative Distribution Function, CDF, the integral of the PDF, is a scaled version of the hyperbolic tangent

½ + ½*tanh(x-µ)/(2*s))

In this function the mean/median is also µ and the variance, σ², whose  square root is  the Standard Deviation is

σ²=s²*π²/3.

When the parameters are real numbers, then they can also be expressed as complex numbers as µ_c=µ_r+0*i and σ_c²=s_r²*π²/3+0²*i. While on all surfaces it is perfectly acceptable to treat µ_c as equal to µ_r which effectively seems to ignore the imaginary coefficient. However, the variance expressed as a complex number is also the formula for a triangle, and the surface on which the triangle resides matters. If that surface is flat or a very large sphere, then it is true that there is a single solution and that solution is σ=s*π/√3. But on a hyperbolic surface, there are two solutions (one for each sheet of a two sheeted hyperboloid formed by rotating that surface around an imaginary axis),  σ=ln(0 ± 2*cosh(s*π/√3)).  This is true for any non-zero value of s. For example for s =1/2, where s could be interpreted as the mean of the number of absolutes,  the Standard Deviation, σ, square root of the variance, σ², on a flat surface,  also know as Euclidean surface, is σ=0.9069.  But on a hyperbolic surface σ=1.0579. In this case by considering imagination, the Standard Deviation has increased by 16%.