Sunday, August 1, 2021

Vaccines

 

I Can’t Make You Love Me

'Cuz I can't make you love me
If you don't.
You can't make your heart feel
Something it won't.

Can I make you do something you won’t?

The reluctance to get the COVID-19 vaccine is a classic case of a User Optimal versus a System Optimal solution.  The System Optimal solution is for enough of the population, around 70%,  to get the vaccine in order to achieve herd immunity.  Since in the United States, the vaccine has not been approved for those under 12 years old, it requires that those over 12 years of age have more than a 70% vaccination rate.   The vaccination  rate is currently 64% and  moving slowly.  Those who accept the System Optimal solution have probably already gotten the vaccine.  But the User Optimal solution is to NOT get the vaccine.  If you place no value on others, not yourself, getting COVID, and there is a real probability of a reaction to the vaccine and a long term possibility of side effects of the vaccine, then not getting the vaccine is a valid User Optimal solution. 

Arguing that those not getting the vaccine are being selfish will not change that User Optimal solution.  Paying to get the vaccine might work, but only if that payment is more than the cost perceived for the immediate reaction and the long-term side effects.  Additionally the necessary payment will vary for each individual.   Finding a value that achieves the desired herd immunity is difficult.  Since this is a System Optimal solution, prohibiting Users from participating in desirable system events, say concerts, sporting events, travel, etc. may be the only way to change the User Optimal solution.  Will those who have opposed getting a vaccine complain loudly?  You bet.  But  they may not otherwise choose the System Optimal solution, and the shadow payment of getting them to adopt that System Optimal solution is not known. Making those Users pay a price for not getting the vaccine may be the only way to get them to choose the System Optimal solution.  Society, i.e. the System, just has to ignore the complaints coming from those who are reluctant to getting vaccinated. After all murder, theft, lies, etc. are all User Optimal solutions.  But no murder, no theft, no lies are System Optimal solutions.  If a cost is imposed to make Users choose what society has determined to be a System Optimal solution, then it seems like a small price to pay.  If society is  willing to impose a death penalty to prevent murder, then imposing a vaccine requirement to prevent further COVID outbreaks seems like a small imposition.

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