Polling II

 

Fugue of Tin Horns

I got the horse right here,
The name is Paul Revere,
And here's a guy that says if the weather's clear,
Can do,
Can do,
This guys says the horse can do,
If he says the horse can do,
Can do,
Can do,
Can do.

Polls are touting.

I am not trying to look down my nose here. At various points in my career, I have been a pollster and have touted. The problem is that I understand how polls work, what they do, and how they should be used. And one way that they should NOT be used is in horseracing to predict the next single outcome. A series of outcomes, the house odds, sure that is good touting. The next outcome? Are you crazy!

The golden age of polling has passed. Every response in a poll has to be properly expanded to represent a universe. Once telephone polling could be certain that the telephone number defined geography, which could be used to expand the poll response, But that land line telephone, which once determined geography, and thus other expansion characteristics, is no more. My parent’s landline phone determined the geography, not only in the area code, the first three digits, but also in the Exchange, the next three digits. My parent’s phone was 401-941-XXXX which meant that it was 401-WIlliams 1-XXXX, such that the area code not only told you the portion of a state, but the Exchange told you the town and portion of town served by that Exchange and suffix. My old land line phone was 508-339-XXXX and my sister, who lives two miles away in the same town is 508-337-XXXX. Thus not only do we have the same exchange, EDgewood or 33, but we have different suffixes within that exchange. And besides people used to answer land line phones!

I said former landline phones because my family cut the cord years ago and no longer has a landline. My cell phone has a Boston area code because I worked in Boston when I bought that cell phone. My son who now lives in California has a south suburban Boston area code because he lived in my home when he got his cell phone. My wife has a Los Angeles area code, because that son bought her cell phone. So phone numbers being used to expand the respondent’s answers? And answering cell phones calls from an unknown caller doing a poll? As if!!!

So polls today are no longer as easy to do as they once were. And anyway people confuse the expansion process with the results. This includes the US Supreme Court which confused the process of Affirmative Action with its results. https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/08/affirmative-action.html

LOL. You’re correct Supreme Court.😜  I won’t give preference to race, income, or ethnicity when admitting students. I will instead give preference to polo players, who ski in Europe. That will assure I have not given any preferences to rich WASPs!?!

Polls to tell you the general direction? An honest tout. Polls to pick the winner in a horse race? A dishonest tout.  A poll that says Trump is ahead of Biden?  You be the judge.