Election 2024

 

Centerfield

Oh, put me in, coach

I'm ready to play today

Put me in, coach

I'm ready to play today

Look at me, I can be centerfield

How does a coach decide who will play?

It has been said that over a baseball season you will win 1/3 of your games and lose 1/3 of your games and it is what happens in that remaining 1/3 that determines the success of your season. In a season of 162 games, then you should lose no more than 2/3 of 162, or 108 games. Tell that to the 2024 Chicago White Sox! This statement should be in REGULATION games, those NOT going to extra innings, you will win 1/3, etc. Losses in extra innings only prove the point and tie breakers should be deducted from the total of 162 games played.

The reason is that there are three outcomes to every game win, loss, AND tie. The games that end in a tie after regulation are NOT being counted as ties. It is the same in any contest such as an election, but in elections policies AND character are being considered. 1/3 will chose one policy, 1/3 will chose the other policy, and 1/3 will chose character as the tie breaker because they can’t decide on policy alone. There are those elections that are only about policies. Arguably the 1972 election of Richard Nixon vs, George McGovern was on policy ( Nixon’s character was not widely known until AFTER the election.)  And the 1964 election of Lyndon Johnson vs, Barry Goldwater was on character. This means that unless the opinion on policies and character changed between 1964 and 1972, that 60% of the population prefer Republican policies and 60% of the voters will choose on character.

If we start with the premise that 1/3 will choose Republican policies, then that means that the Republican base is 33% of the electorate. Similarly 33% of the electorate will chose Democrat policies. This means that one-third will of the voters will be unwilling or unable to decide on policies alone and will revert to character as a tiebreaker. If 60% of those voters think that Kamala Harris has the better character, then she  should receive 60% of that 33.3%, or an additional 19.8%, for a total of 52.8% while  Donald Trump will only receive 40% of that 33.3% or an additional 13.3% for a total of 46.2%. A larger difference than that indicates that the character is more than an 60/40 split. But it must be remembered that a Harris victory does NOT mean a victory of Democratic policies. It only means that Harris won on character.

Debates and elections are illustrative of character, not policies. How you debate is more important than what you debate. Does this mean that the election has been decided?  It might be. (Pennsylvania started early voting on Sept 11^th. November 5^th is just the finish line.) But electoral college voting strength is not the popular vote. Play ball!