Election 2024 III

 

It Takes Two

One can wish upon a star
Two can make a wish come true, yeah
One can stand alone in the dark
Two can make a light shine through
It takes two, baby
It takes two, baby
Me and you
It just - takes two

Actually it takes three.

The Best of Car Talk podcast, which IMHO is the best podcast, is only reruns of the Car Talk radio show when both hosts were still alive. When it was being broadcast, it was the most popular listener supported show on NPR, however it attracted little underwriting and corporate sponsorship. In order to generate more revenue, the one break in the one hour show at the half hour mark, was expanded to two breaks within the same hour, where underwriting and station acknowledgments could be given. Tom Magliozzi, the older brother, started referring to the three parts of what was previously a two half show, as three halves of the show. What started as a running joke, reflected the brilliance of the hosts. What appears to be two halves, sides, in an election, or any contest, consists of two observable parts AND one unobservable part. There really ARE three halves.

Game Theory says that there are three outcomes to every contest: Win, Loss AND Tie. To simplify this into two outcomes, Win and Loss, Ties are divided into False Wins and False Losses. This means that a win is the sum of true wins and false wins. It also means that a loss is the sum of true losses and false losses. The sum of true wins and false wins is just x*1/3 +x*1/3+0.5*(1-y)*1/3 or 5/6, 83.3% for any value of x and y. This indicates dominance. Similarly the sum of true losses an false losses is (1-x)*1/3 +(1-x)*1/3 +0.5*y*1/3,  or 1/6, 16.7%. For any values of x, the probability of a true win,  and y, the probability of a false loss it could not be certain unless the probability of a true win was 100%, and the probability of a false win/false loss was 0%

The problem is that x and y can not be any value. They are limited to being between 0% and 100%. Additionally there is a definite relationship between x and y which is x=4*y. Given these two restrictions, the odds of a true win will not exceed 75%. To achieve a certainty of a win being 100% additional restrictions must be applied go ensure that false wins do not also exceed 25%.

·        A winner must receive more than 50% of the popular vote AND 50% of the electoral vote.

·        The electoral vote must be awarded on the basis of congressional districts AND state senatorial districts,  (the current practice in Nebraska) . In the case of DC's three electoral votes, it should be what would its congressional districts if it had them.

·        The number of congressional districts can not be fixed at 435 but must truly reflect the population. (the Wyoming rule).

·        If  there must be at least three choices, while according to  Duverger’s Law there will be a two party system given our electoral system,  then each party must present two slates of candidates at their respective nominating convections, and each voter must select their first, second and third place choices on the ballot. Three points will be awarded for first place, two points for second place and one point for third place. (podium finishes, ranked choice voting, Olympic medals, etc.), with the winner being the one with the most points, not merely the most first place votes.

In this manner certainty can be achieved from a winner, both true and false.

According to the New York Times, the popular vote winner in the 2024 presidential election only had a plurality, less than 50%, even though that same candidate achieved more than 50% of the electoral vote. This is NOT a mandate, and may NOT even be certain.