Saturday, January 29, 2022

Inflation

 

We Are The World

We can't go on
Pretending day-by-day
That someone, somewhere soon make a change
We're all a part of God's great big family
And the truth, you know, love is all we need

Inflation may be the price we pay for ignoring the world.

There is an expectation that inflation will always result in an Cost Of Living Adjustment in many programs.   Where specific monetary values have been listed in the US Code, e.g. the minimum wage, inflation has eroded its worth, so that it is really only the value in the statute for the year in which it was enacted. E.g. the minimum hourly wage of $7.25 was last changed in 2009.  Since that time, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of that wage such that $7.25 in 2009 USD is worth  only $5.58 in 2021 USD.   Inflation, which has been positive since as long I can remember, has decreased the effective value of the minimum wage.

The mistake may be in focusing on year-to-year inflation, e.g. the 2022 purchasing power of a the US dollar, versus the 2021 purchasing power.  Annual inflation is to long-term inflation what weather is to climate.   Annual, year over year, inflation may be loved by the financial experts and media.  However if you look at long term inflation, it can  be divided into three periods, which have not changed since a blog post in 2018,  https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-happening-riding-high-on-top-of.html,  even given recent CPI data though 2021. 


If this trend of long-term inflation is correct, year to year inflation is actually continuously declining and while it is forecast to be only 1.2% in 2050, a 2021 USD then will have the purchasing power of  only $0.6695.  As long as the USD is a major international reserve and trading currency, and the world economy is growing, then the US money supply, which is set by the Federal Reserve which considers the growth of the US economy, but does not appear to account for the growth of the world economy, will have long-term inflation.  Unless we acknowledge that we are the world, then the continued inflation of the US currency has to be expected.

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Storytellers

 

Up On The Roof

When I come home feelin' tired and beat
I go up where the air is fresh and sweet (up on the roof)
I get away from the hustling crowd
And all that rat-race noise down in the street (up on the roof)
On the roof, the only place I know
Where you just have to wish to make it so

When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true.

Ryan Beagan posted on LinkedIn a video from one of his former bosses, Steven Spielberg. https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-beagan-virtual-production-supervisor/recent-activity/shares/ hey if he gets to name drop, his proud father can name drop too!  The quote concerned the fact that directors have to be animators.  One of the comments was that directors have to be choreographers.  They are both correct, but to be more generic, a good director has to be a good storyteller.  The West African culture honored storytellers and gave them the title of Griot.

The ability to tell stories is what has made the tribe that is mankind so successful.  Through our stories, we pass down our wisdom to the tribe, even after our time on earth is ended.  We may die, but our stories, and thus our tribe, endures.  Even if storytellers are not rewarded in their lifetime, their stories, i.e. art, lives on.  We may not know who the Kings of England are, but we know Shakespeare.  We may not know who the rulers of ancient Greece were, but we know of the Parthenon.  Our stories keep us entertained, and pass down truth and our beliefs.  Mathematics and science are stories too, just as much as General Hospital or anything on HBO.  Raise a glass to the storytellers and thank them, because they have shared their dreams with us.

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Supreme Court Justices II

 

I’m Sorry

You tell me mistakes
Are part of being young
But that don't right
The wrong that's been done
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh-oh
Oh, yes

Opps, I made a mistake!

I was wrong.  I should know better than to practice law without a license.  In a blog post yesterday, https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-justices.html, I said that the three Justices appointed by President Trump were illegal.  They do, as you can tell from my blog post, have opinions with which I disagree, and they might not be supported by a super-majority of the Nation, but they are legal. A semi-colon in the text of the Constitution means a lot.  A more careful reading of Article II Section 2 of the Constitution makes it clear that Justices of the Supreme court only require a simple majority of the Advice and Consent of the Senate.

[The president] shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States…

While Treaties require a supermajority of the Senate, all appointments and nominations,  including Judges of the Supreme Court, only require a simple majority of the Advice and Consent of the Senate.  I was wrong and that semi-colon distinctly separates the super-majority to make Treaties and the simple majority to appoint. 

However there is an argument that the appointment of judges, of the Supreme Court, the District or Appellate courts, are different than Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and all other Officers of the United States.  Those other officers serve only during the term of the President. While they do represent the will of the People’s executive representative, the President, at the time of their appointment, the will of the people, and the views of each person appointed, may change over time. Federal positions that represent the sovereign People, are elected, are appointed by elected officials, or are a protected class of Civil Servants.  Every two years, the will of the People is expressed in a federal election.  At every election, all of the representatives of the House and one third of the Senators are up for election.  Every other election, the People’s representative to head the Executive Branch, the President, is up for election. Ambassadors and other public ministers and Consuls, serve at the pleasure of the President and while they have no specific term, effectively their term is that of the President. Judges however are traditionally lifetime appointments.

When the Constitution was drafted and ratified two things were very different. 

  1. When the Constitution was drafted, life expectancy was only was only 38 years for a white male and the eligible voters representing the people were free white males over 21. Voters today include all races and genders over the age of 18 years and the life expectancy today is 77  years.  The tenure of judges has increased accordingly.  Cramton in his article on reforming the Supreme Court, noted that “Since 1789, the average age of appointment to the Court has been fifty-three, with most appointees falling between age fifty and fifty-five. Until 1970, Justices resigned or died at an average age of sixty-eight, thus serving an average tenure of about fifteen years. A new Justice joined the Court about every two years[1]

2.     The formation of political parties was not understood by the Founding Fathers.  The single representative per voting district system was not shown to result in two parties until Duverger’s Law[2] was proposed in the 1960’s.

The brilliance of the Constitution is that its drafters realized that they were not perfect and they included provisions to amend the Constitution.  The second difference cited above gave rise to the Electoral Crisis of 1800 and the passage of the 12th Amendment of the Constitution. That Amendment recognized that the Vice President and the President should not be the first and second place finishers in the electoral College, but should be separate offices because they would be from the same political party.

The first difference, as cited above, recognized that virtual lifetime office, continued re-election of the President, was not good for the nation and resulted in the ratification of the 22nd Amendment after FDR’s fourth election.  While FDR was arguably good for the US, limiting each President to two terms was considered to be thoughtful protection for the People against Presidential excesses.

To ensure that each four-year presidential term can appoint judges, and to prevent lifetime appointments, it is proposed that the Constitution be Amended such that the Supreme Court will have 10 justices, each serving a sixteen-year term, with each term being staggered by 2 years, preferably beginning and ending in the off-years for elections.  This would ensure that no President could appoint all of the members of the Supreme Court and a one-term President could only appoint 2 members.  Since the appointment to the Supreme Court is arguably as important as a Treaty, it is proposed that the required Advice and Consent of the Senate also be by two thirds.  It is further proposed that all opinions of the Supreme Court require a super-majority (6 to 4).

Since super-majorities prevent both the tyranny of the majority and the tyranny of the minority, but an efficient supermajority is not possible in a two-party system, it is further suggested that all super-majority votes, including the Senate filibuster to end debate, be by secret ballot to prevent retaliation against those who vote with the super majority but against their minority party.



[1] Cramton, Roger C. (Fall 2007). "Reforming the Supreme Court". California Law Review95: 1313–1334
 (at p.1316). 
accessed from the original on January 26, 2022 at https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2216&context=facpub

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Supreme Court Justices

 

I stand behind the sentiments, of this blog post, but not the conclusions 
  see 
https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-justices-ii.html


Popeye the Sailor Man

I'm Popeye the Sailor Man,
I'm Popeye the Sailor Man.
I'm strong to the finich
Cause I eats me spinach.
I'm Popeye the Sailor Man.

Popeye may not be the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree, but he can read.

Justices “Not Merrick Garland” Gorsuch, “I like beer, Frat Boy” Kavanaugh and “Handmaiden” Barrett all may have been illegally and unconstitutionally appointed to the Supreme Court of the United States, SCOTUS.  None of them received two thirds of the Senate that may be required under Article II of the US Constitution, which reads:

[The president] shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States…

Before nominations can be confirmed by the Senate, debate has to end and those nominations have to be brought to the Senate floor for a vote.  Under Senate rules, ending debate requires that 60 of the Senators present concur. This action is popularly known as the filibuster.  The Senate under then Majority Leader “Yertle the Turtle” McConnell changed the Senate rules so that a simple majority could bring the advice and consent of the nomination of Supreme Court Justices to the floor.  This change was proper since the Senate rules are NOT constitutional rules.  However once a vote was taken on the Senate Floor, it was NOT by two thirds of the Senators present.

The Senate is free to establish and change its own rules.  It is not free to unilaterally change the US Constitution.  Now that these three Justices have been seated there is an interesting Constitutional question.  The two thirds rule could have been changed only if the Constitution had been amended, which it was not.  The opinions of those justices on all opinions of the court might be disregarded.  Additionally, any constitutional  decision on the legality of their appointment should NOT include any of these three justices.

In the immortal words of Popeye the sailor.  "That's all I can stands, I can’t stands no more."

Friday, January 21, 2022

Units

 

Free Your Mind

Free your mind
And the rest will follow
Be color-blind
Don't be so shallow

Get the UNITS right, and the rest will follow.

When I was in High School, more years ago than I care to admit, my chemistry teacher gave some advice that I have found to be very, very wise.  When you are doing anything, especially trying to solve chemical formulas, get the units correct and the correct solution will be much easier. 

I have seen so many people struggle when they ignore this rule. 

  • If something is supposed to be dimensionless, then you better have the same units on top in the numerator as you have on the bottom in the denominator.  
  • When you are using stored numbers, the instructions (metadata) will have the units.  
    • If something is stored in hundredweights, remember to divide by one hundred if necessary.  In addition to the units, the instructions might also include how many digits are stored (e.g. in thousands, in millions, etc.).  
  • A number might, for example, be for longitudes and even though a positive number is stored, all of the longitudes might all be in the western hemisphere and by convention that longitude might have an implied negative sign.  
  • A blank may look like no data, but a computer program may see a difference between a blank, a text null, a text zero and a numeric zero, even if they might all mean no data to you.  
  • A spoonful of sugar is not just a Mary Poppins song. If it is a TEAspoon of sugar then it is a measurement that is different than a TABLEspoon of sugar.  

If something is a measurement, know the units, and the rest will follow.

Logic

 

What’s Love Got To Do With It?

Oh-oh, what's love got to do, got to do with it?
What's love but a second-hand emotion?
What's love got to do, got to do with it?
Who needs a heart when a heart can be broken?

What’s LOGIC go to do with it? What’s LOGIC except a second-level math course?

If you want to lie, then math and logic are NOT the way to do it.  Math, which includes logic, can show that something is false.  In fact Proofs are a fundamental part of Math.  You might be able to lie and say that 1+1 is not equal to 2.  However Math can prove that this statement is false. We can say that Math is Hard, but intuitively people use Math all of the time. 

When people make a choice to travel, those people add some extra time to ensure that their trip is on time.  Observations have shown that humans choose that extra time to be enough to be on time 95% of the time, two standard deviations of the mean ( weighted average) time.

People who say they don’t understand percents can often quote batting averages, pass completion rates, or free throw percentages and use those to argue about who is the best player. 

Math may involve something that is hard to remember but that does not mean that is not true.  Passing a law that Pi is equal to 3 won’t make Pi 3.  It just makes that law false and silly.

When people say that a distribution is fair, it almost always is a uniform normal distribution.

Math may be Hard, but it is the Truth.

Monday, January 17, 2022

Solutions

 

Street Fighting Man

Hey! Think the time is right for a palace revolution
'Cause where I live the game to play is compromise solution
Well, then what can a poor boy do
Except to sing for a rock 'n' roll band
'Cause in sleepy London town
There's just no place for a street fighting man

The Stones were right.  We need compromise solutions, or else we will get revolutions.

“The Business of America is Business” describes a User Optimal solution from the perspective of a businessman.  The equivalent System Optimal statement would be “The Business of America is America”.  It is possible to be a businessman and also appreciate that there are System Optimal solutions. (e.g. Mitt Romney).  However it is also possible to be a businessman and have no appreciation that there are, or should be, System Optimal solutions.  (e.g. Donald Trump).  It is also possible be a US Senator, who represents a state, a System, and have no appreciation for User Optimal solutions ( e.g. Bernie Sanders). What is Good for America is not necessarily Good for Business, and conversely what is Good for Business is not necessarily Good for America.  The purpose of government is to arrive at compromises where what is Good for America is also Good for Business.

You can not arrive at these compromises if you don’t appreciate that there are both User Optimal and System Optimal solutions, and they may be different.  The fact that they are different, does not mean that one is better than the other, just that they are different.

If you do believe in a System Optimal solution, then it is important that you also agree about who is in the System.  The US Constitution says that every person is included in the System.  The US fought a Civil War because some states believed that certain persons ( i.e. enslaved Africans) should not be included in the System.  Agreeing to a System Optimal solution, but disagreeing as to who is in the System is effectively not believing in the System Optimal solution at all.

A System Optimal solution can only be arrived at if the truth is considered.  A User Optimal solution may only depend on that User winning, and if winning requires not acknowledging the truth, also know as cheating, it can still be a User Optimal solution.

The goal of government is to find compromises where User Optimal solutions are also System Optimal solutions.  It is not to make the System smaller, or accepting the untruths of User Optimal solutions as System Optimal solutions. As the government celebrates Martin Luther King Day let's remember this.  Those who advocate for User Optimal solutions need to accept the Truth and accept the System if the government is to be able to compromise.