Changes

 

For What It’s Worth

There's something happening here
But what it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware

I think it's time we stop
Children, what's that sound?
Everybody look, what's going down?

Isn’t it worth figuring what is happening?

When something is happening, it is generally obvious.  In the world of data analysis, pattern recognition, this is called a discontinuity, a phase change, etc.  Often when plotted as a curve, the data will display a “Hockey Stick” shape, so much that I was tempted to use lyrics with H-E- Double Hockey Sticks to begin the post.  The heel of that hockey stick most probably represents the beginning of a change from one equilibrium to another. It can be expected that there will be two discontinuities, one at each equilibrium.  Knowing why there is the first discontinuity might provide an understanding of the nature, the what, and where, of that second equilibrium.

A plot of life expectancy shows a hockey stick shape, a discontinuity. The blue bars are the reported life expectancies for various period in history.  The red line is a moving average of those life expectancies.  A discontinuity happened in the 19^th Century, …perhaps modern medicine and sanitation?…which is continuing today.  However at some point this trend will be capped by the life span of a human and what we are seeing is a change from an life expectancy of  ~30 years to one of ~100 years.  Eventually it will be harder and harder to increase life expectancy and the curve will follow another downward facing hockey stick.

Source: analysis of data from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

Another famous instance of the Hockey Stick shape may be global temperatures. Beginning at the start of the industrial revolution and its accompanying burning of fossil fuel, this increase will continue until it reaches a new equilibrium.  That equilibrium can include humans that have switched to non-fossil fuels for energy, or it can be without humans and their fossil fuel burning.  The first discontinuity has already happened.  The debate is what and where will be that new equilibrium.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki

A third discontinuity  is  consumer prices.  As I have blogged before, https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/01/inflation.html, there was a discontinuity that occurred with the Nixon Shock of 1971. It is when the USD dollar continued to be the major international trading currency, but it was no longer convertible into gold by foreign nations.  It is suggested that this discontinuity has occurred and the new trend will continue until an international trading currency which is separate from any national currency, is adopted. At that point there will be a second discontinuity.

 

Source: https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/01/inflation.html

Theses shapes are most probably the Cumulative Distribution Function of a logistic distribution, where µ is the mean of the distribution,  and note that the median, the  50% percentile value, occurs at this mean, and s is the the scale, an indication of the range over which the change occurs.  The scale is a fixed factor of the variance of the distribution. 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution

As shown in that distribution, there will be a second change, discontinuity. Understanding the first can help make decisions about the second.  Stop.  Everybody look what's going down.

Ranked Choice Voting II

 

I’m A Loser

I'm a loser
And I lost someone who's near to me
I'm a loser
And I'm not what I appear to be

Is Sarah Palin, or Donald Trump for that matter,  a Loser?

Sarah Palin lost the Ranked Choice voting for the election of a representative in Alaska. Unsurprisingly, she and many Republicans blamed the state’s ranked choice voting system.  They have characterized it as too complex and unfair.  But it is not so complex that a form of it is used in college sports polling or parimutuel betting systems.  Just because the public changed the system, and you lost, doesn’t mean that the change was unfair.

The first college basketball tipoff is not until two months from now in November. But the preseason polls are already out.  The North Carolina Tarheels are ranked first.  They did not receive a first place vote on every ballot.  But that is not how basketball polls work.  They may work on a points system where a first place on a ballot listing the top 20 teams is worth 20 points, a second place ballot is worth 19 points, etc.  The consensus first place might not be the majority choice for first place, but that is not how these polls work.

In the Kentucky Derby or any pari-mutuel horse race, the first place pay-out is based on the number of people who selected that finisher for first place.  Unless the odds on a horse are lower than 1 to 1, they were not the first choice of the majority of bettors.  The race is not awarded to the consensus of the betting.  The race actually matters! 

Ranked choice voting is not uncommon.  It is how rankings with more than two selections are generally made.  The best restaurant is not the one that receives the most first place votes.  If a restaurant is everyone’s second place restaurant and people are divided on what is their first place restaurant, then that consensus second place is probably the best restaurant. Just because you didn’t want to lose, doesn’t mean that you couldn’t lose. 

 

Voting Rights II

 

How Long ( Has This Been Going On?)

Oh, your friends and their gentle persuasion
Don't admit that it's part of a scheme,
But I can't help but have my suspicions,
'Cause I ain't quite as dumb as I seem.

How long is too long?

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 established preclearance rules for states, counties, and townships that had in the past acted to restrict voting rights.  If those jurisdictions wished to enact changes in voting procedures, they had to pre-clear those changes with the Federal Government before those new procedures could take effect.  In 2013, the Supreme Court in Shelby vs. Holder held that the coverage formula in Section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act, which determines which jurisdictions are covered, is unconstitutional because it is based on an old formula.  They effectively ruled that after nearly fifty years, those mostly southern states who were covered under the VRA have learned their lesson and deserved relief.  It is true that those who enacted and enforced those restrictions were probably no longer in power and proposing new procedures.  But that is besides the point.  The restrictions were government actions, not those of individuals.  States, counties, and townships do not die, even if the individuals in those jurisdictions have died.  No one who is alive today participated in the 1916 Turkish death marches of Armenians.  So obviously Turks and Armenians must have agreed to let bygones be bygones!  The battle of the Boyne happened in 1690, so clearly Irish Catholics and Irish Protestants have gotten over it!

How long should preclearance be required?  To paraphrase Jesus, seven years might seem like a long time, but shouldn’t the standard be seven times seventy.  It is a matter of trust.  Preclearance means that the changes in the voting procedures are not forbidden, they just are not trusted.  When ever I fly, TSA assumes that I am not to be trusted.  They have required that I remove my belt and shoes, subject my carry-ons to x-rays, forbid liquids, etc.  I do not expect those restrictions, which were enacted after September 11th, to be lifted anytime soon.  Why does SCOTUS think that those governments that have demonstrated that they should not be trusted in the past, should be trusted now. A crime is a crime regardless of when it was committed.  Being based on an old formula does not mean that it was not a valid formula at that time.  Bills of attainder are unconstitutional.  You can not make an action that was not a crime at the time, retroactively a crime.  Similarly, you should not be able to make a past action, which was a crime, not a crime.  You can be pardoned, but it was still a crime.  How long?  How about forever. If you asked for preclearance to be eliminated, to me this is pretty convincing proof that your preclearance should NOT be eliminated.

Immigrants

 

I Pity the Poor Immigrant

Whose strength is spent in vain
Whose heaven is like Ironsides
Whose tears are like rain
Who eats but is not satisfied
Who hears but does not see
Who falls in love with wealth itself
And turns his back on me

I am the grandchild of immigrants.

My maternal grandparents were Wojceich Biernacki and Marjanna (Augustyn) Biernacki.  They immigrated from Poland and never learned to speak English.  My paternal grandparents were James Beagan and Margaret (Leonard) Beagan.  My paternal grandfather was born to Irish immigrants in Canada and was, I believe, an illegal immigrant to the US.  My paternal grandmother was born in the United States, but her mother and father were both born in Ireland.  Gaelic was not spoken at home. 

Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis apparently has forgotten that, like everyone in this county, he is a descendant of immigrants. To remind him, all his great grandparents were born in Italy. His maternal great-great grandfather, Salvatore Stori immigrated to the US in 1904.  His great‑great-grandmother, Luigia (Colucci) Stori and their children, his great grandparents, joined her husband in the US in 1917.  They of course were not flown to Martha’s Vineyard, but if they had I am sure that they would have been welcomed and treated kindly.

The Samaritans were the descendants of those Jews who were not taken into captivity in Babylon.  The returnees from the Babylonian Captivity, despised the Samaritans.  While the Samaritans were not immigrants, they were considered inferior to those who had immigrated (even if that immigration was in their eyes a return). The Levite and the priest in the Parable of the Good Samaritan were among those who had returned. From the gospel of Luke:

On one occasion an expert in the law stood up to test Jesus. “Teacher,” he asked, “what must I do to inherit eternal life?”

“What is written in the Law?” he replied. “How do you read it?”

He answered, “‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your strength and with all your mind’; and, ‘Love your neighbor as yourself.’”

 “You have answered correctly,” Jesus replied. “Do this and you will live.”

But he wanted to justify himself, so he asked Jesus, “And who is my neighbor?”

In reply Jesus said: “A man was going down from Jerusalem to Jericho, when he was attacked by robbers. They stripped him of his clothes, beat him and went away, leaving him half dead. A priest happened to be going down the same road, and when he saw the man, he passed by on the other side. So too, a Levite, when he came to the place and saw him, passed by on the other side. But a Samaritan, as he traveled, came where the man was; and when he saw him, he took pity on him. He went to him and bandaged his wounds, pouring on oil and wine. Then he put the man on his own donkey, brought him to an inn and took care of him. The next day he took out two denarii and gave them to the innkeeper. ‘Look after him,’ he said, ‘and when I return, I will reimburse you for any extra expense you may have.’

 “Which of these three do you think was a neighbor to the man who fell into the hands of robbers?”

The expert in the law replied, “The one who had mercy on him.”

Jesus told him, “Go and do likewise.”

The lyrics quoted at the beginning of this post are by the Nobel Laureate, Bob Dylan. He also wrote

Well, I'm living' in a foreign country but I'm bound to cross the line
Beauty walks a razor's edge, someday I'll make it mine
If I could only turn back the clock to when God and her were born
Come in, she said
I'll give you shelter from the storm

To the residents of Martha’s Vineyard, thank you for giving those asylum seekers from Venezuela “Shelter from the Storm”.

The Queen

 

God Save The Queen

God save our gracious Queen
Long live our noble Queen!
God save the Queen.

Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us,
God save the Queen!

😢

Humanity is a group, pack, animal.  As such, there has to be a leader, a sovereign, of every group.  In the UK that leader, sovereign, is the Monarch.  In the United States, Donald Trump and Trump-world not withstanding, the sovereign is “We the People”. “We the People” can not die, but a sovereign, as an individual, can die.  As  Americans is it any wonder that we don’t understand why the British are sad? 

Do I think that the British should have dominated the world as they tried?  No, and as an Irish-American I certainly can understand the antipathy in India and other former crown colonies toward the Queen’s passing.  However the Queen as sovereign should not be blamed for the sins of her ancestors and people.  As a sovereign, she always understood that she was an obedient  servant of her people, not their ruler.  Rest In Peace Elizabeth.  God does not have to save this Queen.  She has saved Herself. We, as fellow sovereigns, are very proud of Her.

Gatekeepers

 

Can I Get A Witness

Can I get a witness? I want a witness
Witness, witness, witness, witness
Everybody knows, especially you girls
But love can be sad
But half of a love is twice as bad

But what is an EXPERT witness?

In Law, the Daubert test on expert witnesses is

1. Has the expert's theory ever been tested?
2. Has the expert's theory been reviewed by their peers?
3. Are there standards that control the theory's operation?
4. Does the theory have a known or potential rate of error?
5. Has the scientific community accepted the expert's theory?
6. Have the expert's findings ever been published?

While this works for a long-standing theory, it doesn’t work so well when the theory challenges the accepted scientific wisdom.  If the theory is true, but new, it probably has not yet been tested.  If the theory is new, it probably has not been reviewed by its peers, never mind that those “peers” probably do NOT accept that theory.  The third and fourth standards do speak to the proof of a theory:  What are the controls of the theory; and its rate of error.   The last two standards place an overemphasis on the scientific community which reviews and publishes the theory.

If Daubert had been used to qualify Copernicus or Kepler as an expert witnesses, they would have failed.  Galileo not only was not an expert according to Daubert, but he had to recant his observations on the movements of the moon of Jupiter or be excommunicated, and supposedly uttered under his breath “But yet it moves”.  Truth is the truth, regardless of what the conventional wisdom says. In the past accepted wisdom has been: The world is flat; The earth revolves around the sun; Space is full of luminiferous aether in which light moves; The earth is only 6000 years old, etc.  If Daubert is the Law, then Charles Dicken was right in his novel Oliver Twist. "The law is an ass—an idiot."

Deviation

 

Sticks And Stones

People talking, trying to break us up
Why don't they let us be
Sticks and stones may break my bones
But talk don't bother me

But even if they don’t break any bones, using the right word is better.

Deviation is a loaded word, and its use may do more harm than good.  Some common synonyms for deviation are perversion, anomaly, error, aberration, abnormality.  However, when the term is used in statistics it is not intended as a loaded term. It only means the amount by which a single measurement differs from a fixed value such as the mean.  In less contentious terms this might be  defined as  complexity.  If there was no standard deviation, as used in statistics, only one value would have a probability.  Thus a little complexity might be considered to be a good thing. While something that is very complex, e.g., a Rube Goldberg-ish contraption with unnecessary complexity, might incorrectly imply that a any value is correct.  A standard deviation of 1, in statistics, means that distribution is normal.  If the name is changed from standard deviation to complexity, it might be more easily understood.

The human body is composed of 60% water.  The human body is also complex, it consists of many different cells and organs.  A pail of water is 100% water.  It is not complex. Excluding the pail, it only consists of water.  It would be foolish to say that there is no difference between a human body and a pail of water because complexity, i.e., standard deviation, matters.  It is true in statistics that for a normal distribution if the mean grows, then the complexity also must grow for the distribution to still be normal and the probability at zero to also be zero.  A human body is more complex than a pail of water.  If you look at standard deviation compared to water, there is no standard deviation for the pail of water but there is a standard deviation with respect to water in the human body.  A more palatable term might be complexity, not deviation. Then sticks and stones, and words will not hurt.