Electoral College

 

Sophisticated Lady

Educated lady with your college degree
Amazes me why you just can't see
Learned everything from your books on the shelf
But no one ever taught you how to think for yourself

But does that Sophisticated Lady have an Electoral College degree?

The winner of the Electoral College has not been the winner of the popular vote in many recent Presidential elections. This has prompted calls for the elimination of the Electoral College. But before calling for the elimination of the Electoral College, isn’t it worth examining why there is an Electoral College in the first place. The Electoral College was instituted because the President was supposed to have broad representation from the People of ALL of the states, and not merely the popular vote winner. Otherwise the popular vote winner might be decided only by those states with the largest populations. The Electoral College was intended to ensure that the President have broad support across all of the states, large and small.

However the framers did not foresee the formation of Political Parties. It was originally proposed that the leading vote getter in the Electoral College would be President and the second leading vote getter would be Vice President. This resulted in the election of 1796 where the President, John Adams, was from one party while his Vice President, Thomas Jefferson, was from a different political party. It also resulted in the Electoral Crisis of 1800 when Thomas Jefferson (the nominee of the Democratic-Republican Party for President)  and Aaron Burr (his party’s proposed Vice President) got the same number of votes (and if you don’t know who Aaron Burr is then watch Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Hamilton. He was “the damn fool that shot him” and the man who “stood for nothing”). This led to the 12^th Amendment which required separate Electoral College votes for President and Vice President. The formation of political parties also changed the way that the Electoral College worked. The winner of the popular vote might no longer have desired broad support of the states. Under a two party system, the winner of the popular vote and the electoral vote should still be the person who received more than 50%. However in the event of more than two parties, the Electoral College votes are mostly awarded to the person who received the plurality of the votes in a state, but that person may not have received a majority of the votes in that state.

Of the 59 presidential elections, the winner of a majority of the popular vote also won a majority of the electoral vote in 37 of those elections. A third party participated in 13 of the 29 elections where no candidate won a popular majority.  In two of those third-party elections, (Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and Ronald Reagan in 1980), the difference between the percentage of the Electoral College and popular votes exceeded 40%, falsely giving the impression of a mandate to the winner. In the 9 elections where there was no major third party (i.e. the victor might not receive a majority of the popular vote), that ranges from a low of 46.09% of the popular vote and 56.50% of the Electoral College vote for Donald Trump in 2016 to a high of 49.72% of the popular vote and 56.42% of the Electoral College vote for John F. Kennedy in 1960.

I do not have the state-by-state votes to see how this would impact the elections, but based on these results, I would propose that Electoral College votes NOT be awarded unless a candidate receives a majority (NOT A SIMPLE PLURALITY) of the state votes in a Presidential election. The Electoral College would still meet, but would not consist of a pre-specified number of votes (so Nate Silver’s famous 538 would be no more). It is suggested that this might ensure that the winner of the popular vote more closely tracks with the winner of the Electoral College vote, even in the presence of third‑party candidates. This is intended that a Presidential winner have not only the most votes, but a broad representation of the state's votes.  This might not change the results of the election of 2016, but it would more closely heed the Spirit of the Law.

I realize that some states (i.e. Maine and Nebraska) award Electoral College votes on the basis of the votes in Congressional districts, but awarding Presidential Electoral College votes on the basis of votes for President in Congressional districts makes the fight over the mapping of those Congressional districts even more contentious. The proposed modification to the Electoral College does not deal with the number of Congressional seats or the mapping of districts. (Although I personally prefer the adoption of the Wyoming rule for the number of Congressional seats,
 https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2021/05/apportionment-ii.html, and I do not think that a political party which has an interest in the mapping of Congressional districts can be unbiased in developing such a mapping, i.e. I am anti-Gerrymandering. But one battle at a time.)

Trinities II

 

Three Is a Magic Number

Three is a magic number
Yes, it is, it's a magic number
Somewhere in that ancient mystic trinity
You get three as a magic number
The past and the present and the future
Faith and hope and charity
The heart and the brain and the body
Give you three as a magic number

Then why do Triumvirates not work very well?

And here I thought I was being really clever with my blog post, https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/09/triads.html  Turns out I was unconsciously ripping off School House Rock. (I would like to claim that I didn’t see that episode of School House Rock, but that isn’t very believable, is it?). But if three is a magic number, then why are triumvirates (three people) such an unstable way of political power sharing? Is mortality the reason?

A triumvirate would seem like the best mechanism for exercising political power. A majority of a triumvirate (2/3) is always also a supermajority and is almost the mean of a standard normal distribution plus one standard deviation (68%). But that assumes that one of the decisions is NOT to destroy the losing third party. In the event of destruction, the triumvirate becomes a two-person group and either of those parties has an incentive for destroying the other party. And the process of destroying the other parties is likely to be very messy for the entire society.

If every party in a triumvirate is immortal, can’t be destroyed, then it is stable. If the individuals can be destroyed, then the triumvirate becomes unstable, and quickly becomes a battle to become the one winning party.

So an amendment if you would, three is a magic number, if, and only if, all of those three are immortal and can’t be destroyed.

Leadership III

 

Climb Every Mountain

Climb every mountain
Ford every stream
Follow every rainbow
'Till you find your dream

I am looking for a leader to help me climb that mountain.

If we are going to climb a mountain, and we can’t climb that mountain in one trip, then we have to establish base camps. Each base camp is not the top of the mountain.  And the first base camp might be the safety of our living room.  But if we are always satisfied with a base camp, and want to retreat to the last base camp rather than climbing, we will never climb the mountain.  MAGA is retreating to the last safe base camp.  I want to follow a leader who is going forward, not backwards. The song does say dreams, not memories.

Probability

 

Born Under a Bad Sign

Born under a bad sign
Been down since I begin to crawl
If it wasn't for bad luck
You know I wouldn't have no luck at all

“You've gotta ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?”

We live in a random world of probabilities, not certainties. We may expect the world to be deterministic, to always have a single answer, but that does not appear to be how the universe works. The fact that we expect it to be deterministic, does not mean that we should treat it as deterministic. That only will lead to false solutions and misunderstandings. If the universe is random, then not every game will lead to the same outcome, all other things being equal. We can find the most likely outcome, but we can’t find the guaranteed outcome. Not only is TANSTAAFL, There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch, true, but TANSTAAST, There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Sure Thing, also appears to be true. Trying to find a sure thing is a fool’s errand. You can find the most likely outcome, but you still have to play the game.

Even though it is not the most likely outcome, sometimes the underdog will win. Every once in a while, the Number One seed in the NCAA March Madness Basketball tournament, will lose to a Number Sixteen seed. It may have only happened once. Entering the 2023 tournament, since the tournament expanded in 1986, No. 1 seeds were 147-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds. But we still fill out our brackets and watch the games. And maybe, just like in 2018, there will be an upset like the Number Sixteen seed University of Maryland, Baltimore County beating the Number One seed Virginia in the first round. So fill out those brackets and get lucky. There may be lots of brackets, but there is not a guaranteed bracket.

Board of Directors

 

Hazy Shade of Winter

Time, time, time
See what's become of me
While I looked around for my possibilities
I was so hard to please
Look around
Leaves are brown
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

Time matters!

The average investor holds a share of stock for 5.5 months. The life expectancy in the United States is 77 years. The company however should be expected to last forever. These different time frames may be why there are problems in deciding the best strategy for a company.

A company consists not only of its Investors. It also consists of its Labor and its Intellectual Property. The time frame of the Board of Directors of a company should not be as short as that of the shareholders. It should be longer than the life expectancy, which by definition will be longer than the working years, of any single employee. It should be forever. A Board of Directors which represents only investors, might choose a strategy which is best in the short term, but is not the best strategy.

Having a requirement that the Board of Directors of companies include, not only seats for investors, but seats for employees, and at-large seats that are NOT investors, would seem to be in the government's interest AND in the company’s interest. Compensation for the members of Board of Directors should NEVER be in cash, it should only be in shares of the company which can not be sold until that member leaves the Board.

Temper Tantrums?

 

Growin’ Up

The flag of piracy flew from my mast
My sails were set wing to wing

I had a jukebox graduate for first mate

She couldn't sail but she sure could sing

I pushed the B-52 and bombed em with the blues

With my gear set stubborn on standing

I broke all the rules, strafed my old high school

Never once gave thought to landing, no

I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd

But when they said come down I threw up

Ooh-ooh growin' up

Don’t throw up! Grow up!

In Peter Pan, the Broadway musical at least, growing up doesn’t sound very appealing.  Growing up means going to school, not to learn the wisdom of the group and how to learn to discern truth on your own, but to learn how to be a parrot and recite some silly rules.  Growing up means shouldering burdens with a worried air, instead of being proud to contribute.  Growing up means pinching pennies and not being generous.  Growing up is awfuller than all the awful things that ever were.

If we want people to grow up, since growing up is inevitable, then growing up better not mean that is beneath the dignity of climbing a tree.  Growing up should be the home of joy and liberty.  Then no one has to run away, or be banished.  No on should ever say that say they won’t grow up. Stop acting like a toddler.  So there!

MAGA?

 

She Used to be Mine

She is messy but she's kind
She is lonely most of the time
She is all of this mixed up and baked in a beautiful pie
She is gone but she used to be mine

What is important is not what used to be, but will be.

Time marches on. Don’t look back, they might be gaining on you. The arrow of time moves forward. Looking back may be pleasant, but we can never revisit the past. Things just don’t work that way. My Wayback machine is on the fritz.  My Tardis is kaput.  1.21 gigawatts! What was I thinking?

The Russian Federation might think that Ukraine was once part of the Russian Empire and should be again.  Russia was an Empire from 1721 to 1917.  Ukraine was independent in 1917, which prompted the Bolsheviks to conquer Ukraine.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian-Soviet_War  . The Soviet Union may have endured for almost 100 years, but that is so yesterday. Get over it Putin.

There is nothing sadder than a former high school athlete who is trying to return to his glory days.  The glory days have passed us by (in the wink of a young girl’s eye?).  We can, and should, apply lessons that we learned in the past, but one of those lessons that we should have learned from the past is that we should not try to make the present, much less the future, look exactly like the past. Don’t Make American Great Again.  Make America Great in the Future.