Probability

 

Born Under a Bad Sign

Born under a bad sign
Been down since I begin to crawl
If it wasn't for bad luck
You know I wouldn't have no luck at all

“You've gotta ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?”

We live in a random world of probabilities, not certainties. We may expect the world to be deterministic, to always have a single answer, but that does not appear to be how the universe works. The fact that we expect it to be deterministic, does not mean that we should treat it as deterministic. That only will lead to false solutions and misunderstandings. If the universe is random, then not every game will lead to the same outcome, all other things being equal. We can find the most likely outcome, but we can’t find the guaranteed outcome. Not only is TANSTAAFL, There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch, true, but TANSTAAST, There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Sure Thing, also appears to be true. Trying to find a sure thing is a fool’s errand. You can find the most likely outcome, but you still have to play the game.

Even though it is not the most likely outcome, sometimes the underdog will win. Every once in a while, the Number One seed in the NCAA March Madness Basketball tournament, will lose to a Number Sixteen seed. It may have only happened once. Entering the 2023 tournament, since the tournament expanded in 1986, No. 1 seeds were 147-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds. But we still fill out our brackets and watch the games. And maybe, just like in 2018, there will be an upset like the Number Sixteen seed University of Maryland, Baltimore County beating the Number One seed Virginia in the first round. So fill out those brackets and get lucky. There may be lots of brackets, but there is not a guaranteed bracket.