Monkeypox

 

Hello Muddah, Hello Fadduh (A Letter from Camp)

Wait a minute, it stopped hailing,
Guys are swimming, gals are sailing.
Playing baseball, gee that's betta,
Mudda, Fadda, kindly disregard this letter!

Patience you must have, my young padawan.

If your time period is truly short, like the one day in this song, you can have a quite different impression than if you look at a longer time period. There is a difference between weather and climate; between revolution  and evolution; between winning a battle, tactics, and winning a war, strategy; etc. Confusing these is NOT good. There is also a difference between risk and likelihood. Risk is the product of likelihood AND consequences. If the consequences are low then the risk is probably acceptable, regardless of the likelihood. If the consequences are high, then the risk can be unacceptable even when the likelihood is low.

This came up during a conversation on the risk of monkeypox if you have already been vaccinated against smallpox. Smallpox was eliminated and the vaccination against smallpox stopped in 1972. The LIKELIHOOD  of getting monkeypox if you have been vaccinated against smallpox is 15%. The likelihood of successfully filling an inside straight in poker is about 8% so if you think that 15% is acceptable, can we play poker please???

The CONSEQUENCES of getting monkeypox are considerable, so that the risk of getting monkeypox might be unacceptable even if the likelihood of getting monkeypox is low. Don’t be confused.