Saturday, August 27, 2022

Statistics

 







Source of image: https://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm

It is only because People don’t UNDERSTAND statistics that is taken to be lies.

It is possible to use mathematics, and statistics is a branch of mathematics, to lie, e.g., 1+1=3, but the lie is very obvious.  It is only because people don’t understand the terms in mathematics or statistics that they think they are lies.  In the routine “Why a Duck”, it is only because Chico Marx doesn’t understand the terms ford or a viaduct, etc. that it is a comedy.  When Johnathan Swift called for the boiling of Irish children, he was intending it as satire, not as a cookbook.  When Archie Bunker sings “Those Were the Days”, we are supposed to laugh at him, not with him..  There is a difference between tactics and strategy, between a battle and a war, and between weather and climate. Just because they are similar does not mean they are the same.  If you think that there is no difference between a standard deviation and standard error, then like Lou Costello, you can expect someone like Bud Abbott to take advantage of you.           
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9udNrOh5DyA.

Standard deviation is σ.  Standard error is σ divided by the square root of n.  Yes, σ is a Greek letter.  This is a because much of our mathematics was developed by Greek philosophers.  In fact, Science used to be called Natural Philosophy to distinguish it from Spiritual Philosophy.  If you know the terms in philosophy, then you should also know the terms in science, mathematics, AND statistics.

N in the equation of standard error is the size, number of observations, in a distribution.  A distribution is just another name for a group.  The standard deviation multiplied by itself is the variance.  A standard normal distribution, such as those in Nature, has a standard deviation of, which also means that the variance is,  1.  During the COVID pandemic, the phrase “flatten the curve” became popular.  To a statistician that phrase is identical to “increase the variance”.  Its opposite would have been “steepen the curve”, “decrease the variance”.  Decreasing the variance has problems of its own. https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2022/01/resiliency.html.

If the goal is to eliminate error, the response should be to INCREASE the size of the distribution, group.  It should not be to set the deviation to zero.  If the deviation is zero, then any value of n, including decreasing the size of the group, is possible.  Thus, claiming that to reduce error, deviation must be zero is absolutely compatible with exclusion.  However, IT IS NOT NORMAL.  Not only aren’t statistics lies, but we would also be better off if our politicians understood statistics.

 

 


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