Perceptions

 

My Hero, Zero!

How wonderful you are, why we could never reach a star
Without you, Zero, my hero, how wonderful you are
What's so wonderful about a zero? It's nothing, isn't it?
Sure, it represents nothing alone

But place a zero after one, and you've got yourself a ten
See how important that is?
When you run out of digits, you can start all over again
See how convenient that is?
That's why with only ten digits including zero
You can count as high as you could ever go
Forever, towards infinity
No one ever gets there, but you could try

Zero IS my hero, but what kind of zero.

There are three kinds of zero: 1) absolute zero, 2) relative zero, and 3) repeating zero. Mathematically this can be expressed as

1.      0<x<∞, absolute zero;

2.      -∞<x<∞, relative zero; and

3.      (n-1)*π*∞<x<n*π*∞, repeating zero.

It is confusing because absolute zero is often expressed using a relative scale, but that does NOT make it a relative zero. Absolute zero occurs a temperature of 0º on the Kelvin scale. But temperature is more often reported using the Celsius or Fahrenheit scale, where e.g., 0º Celsius is the  boiling point of water. -4000º on the Celsius scale is undefined because absolute zero occurs at ‑453º Celsius. Nothing exists below absolute zero.

By contrast a relative zero is only a reference point and infinity exists before that reference point as well as after that reference point. For example time is a relative zero where the refence point can be the birth of Chris, the Common Era, the founding of Rome, the start of the Exodus, the Big Bang, etc.

A repeating zero is a recognition that zero may occur an infinite number of times for example as in wave functions. It will pass though zero an infinite number of times, periodically.

Not only are there three kinds of zero, but each also appears to correspond to a dimension. Space is an absolute zero. There is no such thing as negative space. There are three components of space: length, width, and height, but as Minkowski showed, it is useful to combine them into a single dimension of space. Time appears to be a relative zero with the reference event being now. There is an infinite amount time before that event, the past, and an infinite amount of time after that event, the future.

Space and time are often taken together as space-time. This defines reality and light is assumed to travel on a flat, Euclidean surface which defines a light cone. However, it is only an assumption that space-time is flat, Euclidean. The Earth's surface is spherical and is only perceived as flat because the radius of the surface of the Earth is so large. Similarly if the universe were hyperbolic, curved, then light would travel on that hyperbolic surface. and while there is an infinite amount of space-time in which light can travel, the range of that space-time repeats cyclically according to a hyperbolic function. If light travels on that hyperbolic surface, it might be more useful to speak not of inverted light cones, but two sheets of a hyperboloid where the separation between the two sheets is zero.

An absolute might then be represented as an infinite series of overlapping triangular waves.  Each wave would have a sharp transition point at its apex.  However to an observer on a hyperbolic surface that wave, and its discontinuity, would be perceived as almost smooth and would repeat infinitely with each period of that wave, even if the observer could  perceive only the period in which the observer was located. The sharp discontinuity at each half period would be perceived of as a single discontinuity.  If the variance of the wave is perceived as 5/6 of the true variance, then the mean/median/mode/location of that wave might then be assumed to be 6/5 of the true mean/median/mode/mode location of that discontinuity in order to correct for this perception.  Setting only the location, i.e. a User Optimal, or only the variance, i.e. a System Optimal is inferior to setting, and correcting the perceptions, of both the location and the variance, i.e. a Nash Equilibrium. 

Zero is still my hero, but that includes all three kinds of zero!

Merry Christmas

 

Charlie Brown

Charlie Brown, Charlie Brown
He's a clown, that Charlie Brown
He's gonna get caught, just you wait and see
(Why's everybody always pickin' on me?)

You’re a good man, Charlie Brown.

https://youtu.be/eff0cqYefYY?si=66oMxhWo_UeYtH7f

Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah.  Blessed Diwali.  Happy Kwanzaa.  Happy Saturnalia.  Etc.  The meaning of all of these holidays is a belief in "Peace on earth, good will to ALL men", NOT just those men who are celebrating with you.

The Future III

 

Restless Farewell

But to remain as friends
You need the time to make amends
And stay behind
And since my feet are now fast
And point away from the past
I'll bid farewell and be down the line

MAGA? How about pointing AWAY from the past.

The lyric above is by 2016 Nobel Laurate Bob Dylan. The past is the choices that have already been made. The future is the choices that have yet to be made. The ratio of choices to be made in the future to the choices already made in the past is enormous, which means that the future is bigger than the past. But the fact that the past appears bigger than the future does not mean that you should choose the past, any more than the larger nickel is worth more than the smaller  dime. Despite what a toddler may think, a dime is worth more than a nickel.  If your feet are going to be fast, you can acknowledge the past, but remember that your feet point away from the past. And anyway you can’t revisit the past and change the choices that have been made. That is why Make America Great Again, MAGA, is so wrong headed. America has Always been GREAT  To embrace the future of America is to make it greater, not to only relive its past.

You can acknowledge the past and learn from it, but you can’t relive it. History does not repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.

True or False?

 

The Hallelujah Chorus

King of Kings
For ever and ever
Hallelujah! Hallelujah!
And Lord of Lords
For ever and ever
Hallelujah! Hallelujah! 

For ever is an INFINITE amount of time. 

In a recent blog post https://dbeagan.blogspot.com/2024/12/intentions.html. I discussed payout tables, matrices. It is also possible to define these payout matrices using an equation of N replacing x.  In this case the payout matrix might be 

The certainty is 100% if the sum of C₁+C₂+C₃+C₄ is equal to 0. As N approaches infinity then ∞/(σ*N) also approaches 1 and the marginal of the true column of the matrix is greater the marginal of false column if  -1+C₁+C₃> C₂+C₄.  As N approaches 0 then ∞/(σ*N) also approaches 0 , and the marginal of the true column is greater than marginal of the false column if  1+C₁+C₃<C₂+C₄. 

For the payout matrix to be true, C₃ must be equal to 0.  For the payout matrix to be normal, C₂ must be equal to C₄.  A normal AND true matrix has a solution of C₁=2/3,  C₃ =0, and C₂=C₄=-1/3.  There is NO normal distribution of N that is false.  For an absolute, infinity, the payout matrices have to be  

absolutely true,  dominantly true, dominantly false,  and 

absolutely false.

Only the first two matrices are always true.  It is acceptable to have a payout matrix that is certain and true, but it should not be acceptable to have a payout matrix that is certain and false.  Similarly it is possible to have a payout matrix where N follows a normal distribution, and while it is possible to have a payout matrix that is false, the N members of that group would have to follow an ABnormal distribution. As stated previously, as N approaches INFINITY that ABnormal matrix would also have to be false.

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Intentions

 

Please Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood

Well if I get edgy, I want you to know
I never mean to take it out on you
Life has its problems, I get more than my share
But there's one thing that I would never do
‘Cause I love you
Oh, I'm just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don't let me be misunderstood 

Intentions matter more than results! 

Results are random.  Intentions are NOT random.  A result could be a win OR a loss. Intentions can be good OE bad.  But don’t be misunderstood.  A payoff table of intentions versus results might indicate a win, but that win could come from bad intentions.  It is still a win, but your intentions were bad.  Don’t let that be misunderstood either.

A payoff matrix is shown below for results AND intentions. The certainty of the payoff matrix is the value of the whole matrix, table, which in each case  is 1.0 or 100%.  However the payoff matrix on the left is certainty with GOOD intentions and the payoff matrix on the right is certainty with BAD intentions.

This condition is unchanged  if the attributes are recharacterized from good and bad intentions to true and false. 

The payoff matrices above  are with every cell as an integer of 1.  If the cells are allowed to  be fractional values between 0 and 1, then the following payoff matrices are possible. In each case the certainty is still 100%, but the payoff matrix on the left below can be characterized as a true win while the payoff matrix on the right can be characterized as a false win.

These are not the only matrices which are possible.  If the value of any cell has to be greater than zero, which is identical to saying that x has to be greater than zero, then  the payoff matrices will still have a certainty of 100%, but they can be generalized where the matrix on the left is a transpose/mirror/reflection of the matrix on the right, i.e. false is the transpose of truth.  Normal is a statistical term that the distribution of the number of false wins is identical to, and offsets, the number of false losses. Alternatively, the SUM of false wins and false losses can be viewed as a Tie, since there are three outcomes for every contest, (Win, Loss AND Tie), while there are four cells in a payoff matrix.

IOW, to not be  misunderstood, whether you lose or win, don't be transposed, because then you will be false.

Mandate

 

Landslide

I took my love; I took it down
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
‘til the landslide brought me down

A landslide? I thought that money voted? What do you mean it is land? Make up your mind!

Donald Trump is claiming that his election as President was a landslide and therefore he has a mandate. Huh? He received a plurality, but not a majority, of the popular vote (which is the people) but a majority of the electoral votes. A problem is how the electoral votes are awarded. A mandate is when the President is elected as the clear choice of the people AND the clear choice of the states. The popular vote is the choice of the people. The States are each awarded two electoral votes. But the electoral votes are awarded  as winner-takes-all in all but two states, instead of separately  by congressional district AND the whole state, as Nebraska does. In other words, there is no mandate if the electoral votes are combined and awarded in a winner-take-all process as if a state were a single district, unless there is a mandate according to the Nebraska method in every state. Additionally, in order for electoral voters to have a real choice, then there have to be at least three choices in each case, (win, loss, AND tie) and there were NOT three candidates in every state and congressional district. This could have been prevented if the two political parties had instead presented two slates of candidates, In this way two political parties could present four choices on a ballot. But this was also not the case.

The fact that money is better correlated with population centers, e.g., the popular vote, and NOT with land area, even if the popular vote and electoral/land vote are the same, then the popular vote is only a plurality, not a majority, And this is an indication that there is NO mandate of money, votes or states, especially not a landslide.

Politics

 

Politician

I'm a political man and I practice what I preach.
I'm a political man and I practice what I preach.
So don't deny me baby, not while you're in my reach.

So what are my politics?

If I were to characterize my political leanings it would be, as my hero Mark Twain, as a Mugwump Republican. I make this distinction because today's Republican Party seems to be only the MAGA wing and Mugwumps have been primaried out of the party. The Mugwumps of Twain's day might have opposed the corruption of the Stalwart Republicans, but at least they were still considered part of the Party.

Why am I a Republican? I am for limited government and low taxes, not NO government and NO taxes. But I am also for Truth, Justice (for the group), and the American way(inclusion). I do not think that just because something is better today, it will be always better.

Truth is eternal, not just for today.

Justice for the Group, not just for oneself, requires respecting the choices of each individual in the group. This means ALL choices (Mind your own business!). I can’t assume that my perception of Truth is correct.

The American Way (inclusion) is in keeping with N, the size of the group, approaching infinity. Actions to limit the size of the group, whether those actions are deportations, voter suppression, discrimination, Jim Crow laws, etc., are wrong.

The statement that “The  Government ( i.e. the group) IS the problem”  is wrong. The government is “of the people, by the people, and for the people” according to Abraham Lincoln, the first and greatest Republican President. Anti-trust and the elimination of monopolies were hallmarks of Republican Theodore Roosevelt (as were national parks and environmentalism). The elimination of the abomination of chattel slavery, which limits the size of the group, was the reason that the Republican Party was founded.

The people in the government may be wrong and following Lord Acton’s maxim that “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”, the government (which must inevitably consist of representatives of the people, who are themselves PEOPLE), is NOT wrong, but the PEOPLE in the government may be wrong. That is why there are elections. Change the government, do NOT eliminate the government. It is a lot easier and faster to destroy than to build. But it is more admirable to be a builder than a destroyer.

Groups

 

Hungry Heart

Got a wife and kids in Baltimore, Jack
I went out for a ride and I never went back
Like a river that don't know where it's flowing
I took a wrong turn and I just kept going

Everybody's got a hungry heart
Everybody's got a hungry heart
Lay down your money and you play your part
Everybody's got a h-h-hungry heart 

C’mon!!!

Brue Springsteen famously encourages the audience to sing the first verse and chorus to Hungry Heart in his concerts.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZwKijVuv5I.  

Audra McDonald encouraged the audience at the London Palladium to join in the song I Could Have Danced All Night.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3orzNvj2yfg. 

Kermit the Frog led the audience of Choir,  Choir, Choir, in singing the Rainbow Connection at the Lincoln Center. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKphuLqr1mI

In each of these the singer could have merely performed the song for the audience.  The singer led the audience in becoming the song.  The best leaders lead the group, they do not lead for the group.  Become the song, and in doing so become the group.

Election 2024 III

 

It Takes Two

One can wish upon a star
Two can make a wish come true, yeah
One can stand alone in the dark
Two can make a light shine through
It takes two, baby
It takes two, baby
Me and you
It just - takes two

Actually it takes three.

The Best of Car Talk podcast, which IMHO is the best podcast, is only reruns of the Car Talk radio show when both hosts were still alive. When it was being broadcast, it was the most popular listener supported show on NPR, however it attracted little underwriting and corporate sponsorship. In order to generate more revenue, the one break in the one hour show at the half hour mark, was expanded to two breaks within the same hour, where underwriting and station acknowledgments could be given. Tom Magliozzi, the older brother, started referring to the three parts of what was previously a two half show, as three halves of the show. What started as a running joke, reflected the brilliance of the hosts. What appears to be two halves, sides, in an election, or any contest, consists of two observable parts AND one unobservable part. There really ARE three halves.

Game Theory says that there are three outcomes to every contest: Win, Loss AND Tie. To simplify this into two outcomes, Win and Loss, Ties are divided into False Wins and False Losses. This means that a win is the sum of true wins and false wins. It also means that a loss is the sum of true losses and false losses. The sum of true wins and false wins is just x*1/3 +x*1/3+0.5*(1-y)*1/3 or 5/6, 83.3% for any value of x and y. This indicates dominance. Similarly the sum of true losses an false losses is (1-x)*1/3 +(1-x)*1/3 +0.5*y*1/3,  or 1/6, 16.7%. For any values of x, the probability of a true win,  and y, the probability of a false loss it could not be certain unless the probability of a true win was 100%, and the probability of a false win/false loss was 0%

The problem is that x and y can not be any value. They are limited to being between 0% and 100%. Additionally there is a definite relationship between x and y which is x=4*y. Given these two restrictions, the odds of a true win will not exceed 75%. To achieve a certainty of a win being 100% additional restrictions must be applied go ensure that false wins do not also exceed 25%.

·        A winner must receive more than 50% of the popular vote AND 50% of the electoral vote.

·        The electoral vote must be awarded on the basis of congressional districts AND state senatorial districts,  (the current practice in Nebraska) . In the case of DC's three electoral votes, it should be what would its congressional districts if it had them.

·        The number of congressional districts can not be fixed at 435 but must truly reflect the population. (the Wyoming rule).

·        If  there must be at least three choices, while according to  Duverger’s Law there will be a two party system given our electoral system,  then each party must present two slates of candidates at their respective nominating convections, and each voter must select their first, second and third place choices on the ballot. Three points will be awarded for first place, two points for second place and one point for third place. (podium finishes, ranked choice voting, Olympic medals, etc.), with the winner being the one with the most points, not merely the most first place votes.

In this manner certainty can be achieved from a winner, both true and false.

According to the New York Times, the popular vote winner in the 2024 presidential election only had a plurality, less than 50%, even though that same candidate achieved more than 50% of the electoral vote. This is NOT a mandate, and may NOT even be certain.

Growth

 

I’m A Loser

What have I done to deserve such a fate?
I realize I have left it too late
And so it's true pride comes before a fall
I'm telling you so that you won't lose all

I'm a loser
And I lost someone who's near to me
I'm a loser
And I'm not what I appear to be

Wouldn’t it be nice if everyone was a winner.

In a zero-sum game there are always winners and losers. A winner has more than 50% of the sum and a loser has less than 50% of the sum. In a game that is more than a zero-sum game, a game which allows growth, that does NOT have to be the case. The growth can be shared by both players of the game. In that case, they can both be winners. The previous winner can have all of his previous share and a percentage of the growth. Because that player has more than what he had previously, he is a winner. The previous loser can have all of his previous share plus the remaining share of the growth. In that case the second player is better off than he was before and is no longer a loser and is also a winner. Only if the previous winner takes more than his share of the growth plus his share of the previous sum will there be a winner and loser. If each player retains his previous share and gets a share of the growth then both players have more than their previous amount and they are both winners.

That is a reason for being against any zero-sum game. In a game where the previous share is retained and the growth is shared among the players, there are only winners with respect to the previous value. It is only if the growth is also considered to be a zero-sum game are there winners and losers. If the previous share is applied to growth then everyone is a winner.

The problem is if the game repeats and on each successive round the share of the growth is the share from the previous round, not from the initial round. Eventually all of the new growth will belong to the “winner” and none of the growth will belong to the second player and thus that player will be a loser. But it is by definition NOT a zero-sum game because there was growth. The only way to resolve this contradiction is to assume that from the start it is NOT a zero-sum game.

Branding

 

Horse in Striped Pajamas

Look there daddy, do you see?
There's a horse in striped pajamas
No, that's not what it is at all
That's an animal people call a zebra
I see, but it still looks like a
Horse in striped pajamas to me

Whether you call it a "zebra" or "a horse in striped pajamas", it  is only branding!

I just completed a business meeting as a result of the 2024 Presidential election.  It was about rebranding the work to be marketed by our firm.  What was our firm's Resiliency and Sustainability work became rebranded as Redundancy and Emergency Planning.  Same work, just a different name.  What had been our firm's DEI, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, work became rebranded as Increasing Economic Opportunity.  Again same work, just a new name.  This is nothing new. What had been End-of-life Discussions became rebranded as Death Panels.  What had been an Estate Tax became rebranded as a Death Tax.  What had been Anti-Abortion became rebranded as Pro‑Life.  And that rebranding changes the perception of the action.  Who isn’t opposed to death and in favor of life!

When I was a state official, the state had agreed to pay for transportation improvements around the then new Gillette Stadium where the New England Patriots would play. I had to keep reminding the Chief Engineer to say the state was NOT adding new through highway lanes. Those would have been prohibited by the funding source.  But if we were merely adding auxiliary lanes, that would be allowed.  So whether you call him Father Zeus, or call him Jupiter (Zeus Pater?), what is in a name? A rose by any name would smell as sweet.  A name is NOT the attribute.  A name is a just the branding of an attribute.

Random

 

Stormy Weather

Don't know why
There's no sun up in the sky
Stormy weather
Since my man and I am not together
Keeps raining all of the time

Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.

Weather is a random event. Climate is a series of weather events. We can’t do anything about the weather. We can do something about the climate. It is like a card game at an honest casino. The casino has no control over the outcome of the next deal of the game. They do, however, and get very rich, in setting the house rules and odds for that game.

Everything is random. As much as we world like certainty, an honest person will realize that everything is random, and is not certain at all. And that should be liberating, not upsetting. If everything is random then your winning is not destiny or because you are good. It is because you were lucky. Similarly if you lose, it also is because it was random. It was not destiny or because you were bad. It is because you were unlucky this time, but maybe you will be lucky the next time. Things being random should make you humble, make you accepting, and make you hopeful. Go forth, play the game, and be lucky.

Commandments?

 

Don’t Stand to Close to Me

Loose talk in the classroom
To hurt they try and try
Strong words in the staff room
The accusations fly
It's no use, he sees her
He starts to shake and cough
Just like the old man in
That book by Nabokov
Don't stand, don't stand
Don’t stand so close to me. 

Is this a commandment or a warning? 

When a toddler hears “ Don’t touch the hot stove”, he may interpret that as a commandment. If the statement is given with the toddler’s safety in mind, with love, it can be a warning that the toddler will not like the consequences of touching a hot stove. The salient point is the consequences of the action. If touching the hot stove will cause harm to the toddler, then it should be taken as a warning, not a commandment. If touching the hot stove will cause no harm to the toddler, then it is correctly taken as a commandment. On this basis the Ten Commandments are more properly the Ten Warnings. No harm can befall an absolute by the action of a human who is far less than an absolute. Killing, stealing, lying, oath breaking, coveting, etc. do NOT cause harm to the absolute, thus they are more properly warnings rather than commands. Do not eat from the tree of Good and Evil in the Garden of Eden which would make you an absolute and there is only one absolute, and you are NOT an absolute is a warning because of the consequences, not a commandment. Don’t stand to close to an absolute is a warning, not a commandment, because of what may happen when you do. A commandment is meant to control. A warning is NOT meant to control. Grow up and listen.

Patience

I Want It All

It ain't much I'm asking, if you want the truth
Here's to the future
Hear the cry of youth (hear the cry of youth) (hear the cry of youth)
I want it all, I want it all, I want it all and I want it now.

But some things take time

Wanting it all and wanting it now is childish.  Patience (not expecting that you CAN have it all and have it NOW) is something that we try to teach our students.  The rule is that it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert at anything.  There is an old joke of a pedestrian asking for directions on the streets of New York, ” How do you get to Carnegie Hall?” The punchline is “Practice, Practice, Practice.” The joke being mistaking being on the stage with being in the audience. The original construction of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris began in 1163 but it was not completed until 1260 almost 100 years later.  An oak tree requires almost 40 to 60 years to mature.  A baby takes years to reach adulthood.

If someone, a con man, promises you an easy way, a shortcut, he may not be telling the truth, and may be only trying to take advantage of you. If you want it all, and you want it now, you may find that you get nothing at all and the cnon man may get what you do have.  And that IS the Truth even if it is inconvenient.

Post Election 2024 II

 

A Day in the Life 

I read the news today, oh boy
About a lucky man who made the grade
And though the news was rather sad
Well, I just had to laugh
I saw the photograph 

Which news did you read? 

I made a prediction according to Game Theory, that in the Nov 5th election that  2/3 of the voters would be able to determine the winner in “regulation time”  and would favor Republican policies by 60% to 40% and 1/3 of the voters would go to a tie breaker which would be the character of the candidate. Given that the total popular vote was 50.3% for the Danaid Trump, the Republican candidate, that means that tie breaking voters preferred the character of that candidate over any opponent by 30.9% to 69.1%.  Given that this candidate was a convicted felon, was fined because of racial bias in renting his apartments, has filed for bankruptcy multiple times, his charities were suspended for being used for personal use,  swindled those attending his University, was a civilly convicted as being a rapist,  opposed by those who served with him, etc., it is surprising that this was as high as 30.9% and not 0.0%. 

The problem is that the voters depend on the trusted opinions of others to judge character when they vote.  Many of those trusted sources either did not carry news applicable to the candidate's character (Fox News, News Max, One America News, Breitbart, Sinclair, etc.) or if they did carry the news of behavior applicable to the candidate’s character either “sane-washed” his statements, or because of fear of reprisals,  a misplaced sense of politeness, or taking the “high” road,  put that behavior in the best possible light. When the news goes dark, is it any wonder that darkness results.

Post-election 2024

 

I Will Survive.

No, not I, I will survive
Long as I know how to love
I know I'll stay alive
I've got my life to live
And all my love to give and
I will survive
I, I, I will survive

Sing it loud.

Before the November 5^th election I was prepared to start a blog post with the lyrics of Easter Hymn, The Strife is O’er. In the aftermath of the election I was prepared to start a blog post with lyrics of the Doors, This is the End. But that is behind me and I have calmed down. There is a difference between marginal and effective, relative and absolute, certainty and dominance, free and unpriced. Just because a majority of those voting got confused does not mean that there is no difference. But we will survive.

Lies

 

Sympathy for the Devil

Just as every cop is a criminal
And all the sinners saints
As heads is tails, just call me Lucifer
'Cause I'm in need of some restraint
So if you meet me, have some courtesy
Have some sympathy and some taste
Use all your well-learned politesse
Or I'll lay your soul to waste, mm, yeah 

All that glitters is not gold.  And all that is gold does not glitter. 

The best lie is one that contains a glimmer of truth. Then it is not obvious to the listener that the statement is a lie.  Not all cops are criminals, and therefore not all sinners are saints, and heads is not tails. 

President Nixon famously said that “I am not a crook” and we wanted to believe him, and then came Watergate and we knew that he was a crook. Ronald Reagan started his career by “re-broadcasting” Chicago Cubs games, which meant that he added sound effects , etc. in orders that those listening to him on the radio did  not know he was merely reading updates of the game which he received by telegraph. Henry Kissinger believed that the "Enemy of our enemy is our friend" which is why our country supported Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, when they were fighting our enemies.  Barry Goldwater said that “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.” Except that moderation is always a virtue and extremism is always a vice.  Newt Gingrich become famous for the broadcasts of his  speeches on C-SPAN but what the camera did not show is that he was speaking to a mostly empty House Chamber. 

It is like the dialogue when Dorothy discovers that the Wizard of Oz is a fraud. She says  “I think you are a very bad man” to which the Wizard replies, “I'm really a very good man, but I'm a very bad Wizard, I must admit”.  When voting today, remember that you are voting for a good man, not a good wizard.

Revenge

 

I Wanna Be Around

I want to be around to see how he does it when he breaks your heart to bits,
Let's see if the puzzle fits, so fine,
And that's when I'll discover that revenge is sweet,
As I sit there applauding from a front row seat.

Revenge may be sweet, but is it correct?

“I am your retribution”-  Donald Trump, CPAC convention, March 2023

“Vengeance is Mine, I will repay,” says the Lord. - Romans 12: 19

So which one do you believe? It sounds like revenge is something that God reserves for himself. Is Donald Trump God?😝

Isn’t that violating the First commandment. “I am the Lord thy God, you shall not have strange gods before me.” You have to give Donald Trump credit. And here I thought he was trying to violate all of the Ten Commandments. He bears false witness, covets, commits adultery, steals, etc. I guess he IS obeying the Fourth Commandment, “Honor thy father and thy mother.”  Considering that:

• Donald’s father, Fred, was a slum lord, who was arrested for attending a KKK rally, who cheated at taxes, paid a fine for discriminating in rentals of his apartments, and who pretended to be Swedish after WWII, and 
• Donald's paternal grandfather, Friedrich, who died of the Spanish Flu in 1920 not during the WWI years as Donald claimed, emigrated from Bavaria to the US to evade Bavarian military service, made his fortune in America by running brothels, returned to Bavaria after he married, and was promptly exiled from Bavaria for previously evading their draft,.  

Donald Trump might be violating almost all of the Ten Commandments,  but why did he have to pick this one to obey?

Tolerance

 

tolerate it

I wait by the door like I'm just a kid
Use my best colors for your portrait
Lay the table with the fancy shit
And watch you tolerate it
If it's all in my head tell me now
Tell me I've got it wrong somehow
I know my love should be celebrated
But you tolerate it

Tolerance is uncertainty, NOT error!

I learned statistics as an Engineer, and what statisticians call Standard Deviation, SD, I was trained to call Tolerance.  The problem is that in this case deviation does NOT mean error, so it is IMHO bad branding. 

Let’s use a fair game of craps as an example.  The Mean/Median/Mode is a roll of 7, but the possible rolls are from 2 to 12.  The tolerance is the highest roll minus the mean roll divided by 3 or (12-7)/3= 1.67. The variance is 1.67 squared, or 2.77.

The error and the tolerance, SD, have NOTHING to do with each other.  The error is 0 because it is a fair game.  The standard deviation is NOT zero because while it is a fair game it is an uncertain game, a game of chance. 

·       The mean plus one tolerance is 8.67.  To be a "normal" distribution  it should have 68% of the outcomes.  It has rolls of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8  which are 31 of the 36 outcomes or 86%.

·        The mean plus two tolerances is 10.33. To be a "normal" distribution it  should have 95% of the outcomes. That means rolls of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 which are 33 of the 36 outcomes or 92%. 

·        The means plus three tolerances is 12.To be a "normal" distribution it should have 99% of the outcomes. That means 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10,11,12  which are 36 of the 36 outcomes or 100%.

Only if there is no chance, is there no error.  So a sample can be correct, in that it is certain, but that does not mean that its standard error is zero. Tolerance and error are as different as INtolerance and no error.   Don’t mistake error with uncertainty.  What is next? Mistaking median for mean? Are you trying to prove Disraeli's attribution by Twain: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics? Marginal tax rates for effective tax rates? Are you Reaganomics?   End of Life discussions for Death Panels.  Are you MAGA?  Bribes for gratuities? Are you the Supreme Court?

Preseservation

 

Old King Cole

Old King Cole
Was a merry old soul
And a merry old soul was he
He called for his pipe
He called for his bowl
He called for his fiddlers three.

There goes that THREE again!

I have stated before that I am a big proponent of the Rule of Three. As a monotheist, I apologize to my polytheist Hindu brethren, but I believe that the highest of the Hindu gods are the pantheon of three Gods: Brahma the Creator; Vishnu the Preserver; and Shiva the Destroyer and that they have something to teach us monotheists. Those three gods could respectively perhaps each have a catch phrase, “Do something”, “Do the right thing”, and “Throw the bums out.’  Brahma creates everything, but not everything is worth saving. Shiva wants to destroy everything, but not everything should be destroyed. Vishnu has to decide which things Brahma has created  should be preserved and protected from Shiva and which things Brahma has created should not be preserved and should be destroyed by Shiva.

Creation, Destruction, AND Preservation are the important to the world. All creation is not good. All destruction is not bad. Some things that are created are good, and they should be preserved. Some things that are created are bad, and they should be destroyed. Creation and destruction; good and bad; hard and soft, or any two extremes are only that, the extremes.  The wisdom is in the middle of those extremes, knowing what to preserve. “Do the right thing.”

Endorsements

 

The Sound of Silence

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence

What is the motto of the Washington Post?

The motto of the Washington Post is “Democracy Dies in Darkness.”  Journalism is supposed to ensure that the voters in a democracy have access to the truth. When the founding families of journalists controlled their own newspapers, it was a tradition that those newspapers would endorse candidates in elections. This may not be truth, but it was truth as seen by the editors and publishers of that newspaper. But as private venture capital has bought out the founding families of journalists, the new owners are reluctant to endorse any candidates in elections. It gets even worse when those owners are billionaires who have a lot to loose if they endorse a candidate who loses.

The LA Times, previously owned by the Chandler Family and now owned by billionaire Patrick Soon- Shiong declined to make an endorsement for president triggering the resignation of its editors. The Washington Post, previously owned by the  Meyer/Graham family and now owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos, also declined to make an endorsement for president, triggering a massive loss of its subscribers.  It is understandable that the billionaire owners wish not to offend the winning candidate in an election by endorsing the losing candidate. They also have a lot to lose. But not endorsing anyone, not speaking truth, is a coward’s way out. The U.S. Constitution has enshrined freedom of press as a basic right for our representative democracy. The People count on the press to tell the truth as they see it, regardless of the consequences. The saying “A coward dies a hundred deaths, a hero dies but once” applies here. Better to die once than to die a hundred times. Democracy will die if the journalists are afraid to publish the truth, to speak truth to power. The voters may count on the endorsement of those journalists.  Has “Democracy Dies in Darkness” become “Hello Darkness, My Old Friend”.

Intentions

 

Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood

You know, sometimes, baby, I'm so carefree
With a joy that's hard to hide
And then sometimes again it seems, that all I have is worry
And then you're bound to see my other side
But I'm just a soul
Whose intentions are good
Oh, Lord
                                                   Don’t let me be misunderstood                                                    

The Road to Hell is paved with Good Intentions. 

My college roommate sent me an article about minimum parking requirements in New York City.  So why are there minimum parking space requirements in the first place?  When you create a housing unit you probably create the demand for parking associated with that apartment, which is why there is a minimum.  That parking will either use public roads (e.g. curbside parking), or public parking, or will increase the demand for private parking. When the demand goes up but the supply does not, then the cost of existing parking, including illegal use of public spaces, will go up.  So minimum parking requirements are an attempt by government to deal with that, by requiring an increase in the supply.  But the unintended impact is to create more households with cars in the first place.  So the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

As an aside,  I am a "Rockefeller" Republican.  It is because government response IMHO should be limited because while the intentions are good, their other impacts can be bad.  In the battle between NO Government/NO Taxes MAGA and the Big Government/High Taxes Liberals, I am in favor of SMALL government/LOW taxes.  This used to be my wing of the Republican Party.  I joined the New York City government after college to join the John Lindsey administration.  While not my department, while I was living there, NYC government tried to solve a problem.  NYC has no alleys like in Boston’s Back Bay in which to store trash and its containers.  The metal trash containers that they did have were noisy and leaky .  Lindsey thought plastic, smell-proof, trash bags stored in front of buildings until private trash haulers could pick them up solved a problem.  And the rats have LOVED it.  Good intention, bad result. IMHO the correct response is a limited (well-vetted) response in the first place, not NO response, or a BIG response.  Don't be misunderstood.