Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Perceptions II

 

Life is a Highway

Life is a highway I want to ride it all night long If you're going' my way Well, I want to drive it all night long

Actually life is an “S” curve

For the first 20% of your life, you are a ward of the group. That is because while you can contribute to the group, your contribution to the group is much lower than during the next 60% of your life. In fact it is on average only 36% of the contribution during the  middle 60%. It is not until you retire, during the last 20% of an average life, that you return to the same level of contribution. During the middle 60%, your contribution to the group on average is more than 2.8 times the contribution during the first, or last, 20%. Also from a hyperbolic surface, the absolute will be perceived to contribute 2% at the beginning of life, the same amount that is perceived to be contributed at the end of the average individual’s existence. This is dictated by mathematics and the perception of an absolute from a hyperbolic surface. This absolute curve is perceived by individuals on a hyperbolic surface as a  Sigmoid or “S” curve. If this curve is approximated by three straight lines, it is  as shown below. The Grey line is the absolute. The Yellow line is the perception of the absolute by an individual on a hyperbolic surface. The Blue lines are the approximation of that perception by three straight lines.




It is the perception of extending the straight line during the middle to 0% that mistakenly gives the impression that you are being an absolute, instead of perceiving an absolute. The true slope is why the initial phase change, operation, introduction, of new products/policies, is much lower than expected and a new action is often mistakenly called a “Folly”. Extending the trend at the other end is why financial bubbles burst, manias occur, and Ponzi schemes do not work. 

The parameters of the upper limit of the middle trend line is also called a Nash Equilibrium. Individuals approximating this curve might be expected to follow a normal distribution with these parameters. The upper line starts at 80% of an average lifespan. In the middle years, the slope is 280% of the slope at either tail. Trying to extend that middle curve without realizing it is a Sigmoid Curve is a common fallacy. If policies are enacted often that mistakenly assume that just because we perceive that a life has a value of 2% at  0 years, it does not mean that to an absolute it is not 0% at 0 years, The value at the upper end should also be an absolute. Trying to force the upper curve to the middle trend line is why the variance in income, income inequality, has increased.

The x- axis of the chart above is because an individual can also only perceive one half of the period of an absolute. That period is 2 π i, because it is also the period of a hyperbolic tangent, Therefore the half period of an absolute perceived by individuals on a hyperbolic surface is π, 3.1415…


 

 



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