Fraternities

 

La Marseillaise

Aux armes, citoyens

Formez vos bataillons

Marchons, marchons!

Qu’un sang impur

Abreuve nos sillons!

Vive L' Liberté! Vive L'Égalité! Vive L' Fraternité!

Fraternities are a way to have a tribe (i.e. a fraternity) within a tribe (i.e. a university).  The issue is whether the large tribe has a selection standard with which the smaller tribe agrees.  The selection criteria in European Universities was either already class based (e.g. Oxford, Cambridge, Eton, the “right” schools, etc.), or was merit based. ( e.g. the Sorbonne, Bologna, Copenhagen, etc.).  In many cases there are already colleges (schools, houses) within a university, so the need to join a smaller tribe is already provided.  Pembroke College is within Cambridge University.  You apply to Cambridge.  You are assigned to Pembroke.  Harry Potter applied to Hogwarts. Once at Hogwarts, he was sorted into Gryffindor House.

Joining a tribe is a perfectly natural and justifiable instinct ( “there is safety in numbers”).  Excluding members from your tribe on prejudice, is not a good thing.  ( e.g. Jim Crow laws, "No Irish  need apply").  The good purpose of a fraternity is such that when you travel to other places you can identify someone in your tribe ( e.g. same Fraternity, different chapter house). But fraternities are also exclusive (e.g. a potential member, a pledge, can be blackballed.)

In the European country with which the US is most familiar, the United Kingdom, there was already a very definite class system (“Upstairs, Downstairs”).  There was no need to exclude "lower" classes from the “right” schools, since  those schools were only for the “upper” classes anyway. The university was already class‑based, or in other countries where the society has no classes, there was no need to adopt an exclusive class structure within a university. This is not the case in the U.S.  Exclusive schools admit people who are not in your class (e.g. I am an Irish-Polish, Catholic, working-class graduate of an Ivy League university).  The alternative is to form fraternities, i.e. tribes, within those colleges where you can exclude the “wrong” people from your tribe.  Some that are excluded, may seek to form their own fraternities where they, and others like them, can be accepted, while others view this exclusion itself as folly ( “I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.”- Groucho Marx.)

Can fraternities do good? Absolutely.  Is there a benefit of joining with others? Absolutely.  Can fraternities exclude people? Yes, and that is their cost.  Members have to decide for themselves whether the benefits outweigh the costs. Fraternities don’t exist in European Universities because there was no need for Fraternities.

2022 Winter Olympics

 

The Way We Were

Memories
Light the corners of my mind
Misty watercolor memories
Of the way we were

What memories should we have of the 2022 Winter Olympics?

You can say that this is the Winter Olympics of Kamila Valieva, of Mikaela Shiffrin, of Eileen Gu, etc.  I will prefer to think of this as the Olympics of Finland's Iivo Niskanen, the Netherland’s Kai Verbij, and the United States’ Elana Meyers Taylor.

·       Kamila Valieva is the poster child for doping and cheating in sports.  But she is just that, a child.  She may have taken illegal drugs but she was told to take those illegal drugs by the adults who were responsible for her.  Blaming her is blaming the victim.

·       Mikaela Shiffrin might not have won any Gold Medals for the US at this Olympics but she did win Gold Medals in two previous Olympics, is the youngest winner of an Alpine skiing Olympic medal for the US, and is tied for the most Alpine skiing Olympic medals for a US team. In World Championships, she is the most decorated American alpine skier in history, having won the most medals overall, eleven,  a record six of them gold.  She was after all skiing for herself.  As an American, I can take vicarious thrills in her victories, but I can not blame her for not giving me more vicarious thrills.

·       Ailing (Eileen) Gu was raised in the US, will attend Stanford University, and might have closer ties with the US but chose to compete for China.  As Americans, we can no more “strip” China of those medals, unless we are also willing to give  Kaillie Humphries’ Gold Medal in the Women's Monobob to Canada, because Kaillie changed her citizenship from Canadian to the United States because of a dispute with her coach.

Instead can we celebrate-

·       Finland’s IIvo Niskanen who won a Gold Medal, in the Men's Cross-country Skiing 15km and instead of going off to celebrate or recover, he patiently waited 20 minutes for every one of the 94 competitors behind him to complete the race.

·       The Netherland’s Kai Verbij who backed off on the final crossover straight in his Speed Skating run, knowing he didn't have quite enough speed to get in front of Canada's Laurent Dubreuil.  Rather than a risk a collision, Verbij popped out of his racing crouch and slowed so he stayed clear of Dubreuil, who zipped away to capture the silver medal.

·       Elena Taylor who won the Silver Medal in the Women's Monobob and the Bronze Medal in the Two Woman Bobsled and will proudly carry the flag for the US during the closing ceremonies.  Despite the shabby treatment of past minority Olympians, such as Jesse Owens, Jim Thorpe, and Duke Kahanamoku, she clearly does not hold a grudge, for which this American is delighted.  And she recently survived COVID and an emergency C section to boot.

The Olympics should not be about remembering the way we were, but striving for the way we would like to be.

 

Inflation Predictions

Revolution

Never make a politician grant you a favor (Doo-doo-doo-doo)
They will always want to control you forever, eh! (Forever, forever)
So if a fire make it burn (make it burn, make it burn)
And if a blood make ya run (make ya run, run, run)
Rasta de 'pon top, can't you see? (Doo-doo-doo-doo)
So you can't predict the flop eh-eh! (Doo-doo-doo-doo)

What can you predict?

NPR’s Planet Money recently aired an episode titled Predictions: Inflation.  These predictions might have been easier if it was recognized that the Consumer Price Index is a combination of long term inflation, which is related to the US  money supply, (the medium of exchange between buyers and suppliers), and short term inflation, which is related to changes in the demand (buyer) and supply curves. If the proposed equations of long term inflation is removed, the changes in inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) show a much different picture.

Viewed in this manner, changes in price appear much more stable than would otherwise be expected.  Taking a deep breath when viewing year to year changes in prices would appear to be warranted.  Most of what is called inflation may be long term inflation caused by the money supply, not by changes in the supply and demand curves. Making predictions about the short term changes in CPI could  be a lot easier if we realize that there is also a long term component.

Blame

 

The Name Game

Billy, Billy, bo-gil-ly, bo-na-na
Fanna, fo-fil-ly,
Fee fi mo-mil-ly, Billy!

The Name game is harmless fun.  Can we say the same about the Blame game?

When  you try to assess blame you are looking only at the past.  You look at a harmful act that has already occurred and try to assign responsibility for that harm.  But if those harmful actions were random, or you can not determine the cause of the harm, it may be tempting to assign blame to an individual.  But assigning blame to individuals who are not responsible for that action can’t prevent those harmful actions from occurring again.  If an investigation does correctly assess blame, and that blame is criminal, penalties can be  imposed to prevent that action from occurring again or make the individual who is responsible mitigate that harm.  Either the individuals who are responsible can be prevented from undertaking take that harmful action again, or those who might have considered such an action are deterred from that harmful action because the costs of that action outweigh the benefits.

But if those individuals are not responsible, punishing those individuals serves no purpose. It does nothing to  prevent the action from happening again.  The purpose of an investigation should be to prevent that action from occurring again.  If you assign blame incorrectly and punish the wrong individuals, those resources can not go into actually identifying the correct cause and possibly preventing such an action from ever occurring again.  Blaming the right person only has a benefit if it deters the harm attributable to that person in the future.  Blaming the wrong person can not deter harm in the future. Doing the right thing in response to a tragedy may be commendable, however doing the wrong thing is worse than doing nothing at all. Finding out correctly who, or what, is responsible is productive.  Simply assigning blame, particularly if that blame is assigned incorrectly, is not.

Money

 

Money (That's What I Want)

The best things in life are free
But you can keep them for the birds and bees
Now give me money, (That's what I want)
That's what I want
(That's what I want)

But what is money?

I have blogged about this before, but it is  important enough to do it again.  Money is the medium of exchange in trades.  We rely on our sovereign to vouch for that medium.  We can agree that precious metals are a medium of exchange in each trade because they have value and they can be exchanged for other goods.  The problem is that the weight of those precious metals is not easily determined (who carries a scale around with them?) and who can be sure that that precious metal is what it is claimed to be (iron pyrite anyone?).  The solution was that coins were minted by the sovereign who attested that the coin was indeed what you expected, and was a weight of which you could be certain.

It is no accident that, in the United Kingdom the unit of money is the Pound Sterling (silver).  The US Dollar is named after the Spanish Dollar, a coin of sterling silver.  It was common to break this coin into eight pieces (pieces of eight) and to use these bits as a medium of exchange ( a shave and a haircut, two bits,  2/8th of a dollar, one quarter).  The accepted precious metal became to be gold as governments shifted away from silver ( “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold"- William Jennings Bryan).

The key to precious metals as a medium of exchange is that  they are limited and not easily created.  Alchemists spent much in resources in trying to turn lead into gold.  The search for precious metals, especially gold, drove much of the frenzy in exploring the Americas.  The forced removal of Native Americans from their ancestral lands followed the gold rush in the Carolinas in 1799 ( the Trail of Tears) and the Gold Rush in the Black Hills of the Dakotas in 1874 ( the infamous Custer expedition).  Ironically the relocation to what was long called Indian Territory, and is now called Oklahoma,  was followed by the discovery of oil there. (Black Gold.  The moral arc of the universe is long but it bends towards justice, indeed! ) The use of precious metals as currency can still be seen in today’s crypto currency.  Bitcoins have the value that they do because like gold, they are rare and there is a limited number (21 million) that can be created. The creation of new Bitcoins is called “mining:”

Precious metals are heavy, hard to weigh, hard to protect, etc.  As a result, governments’ printed paper currency that was backed by precious metals.  This led to the “discovery” that currency had value merely because the Nation said that it had value.  ( the Native Americans that had long used wampum must have FOTFLTAO when the Great White Fathers “discovered” this.) The United States went off the Gold Standard in the 1930s, but gold was still used as a medium of international trade until the Bretton Woods Conference, in 1944, where the US Dollar at a fixed price of gold, became the international trading currency.  This was maintained until the Nixon Shock, in 1971, when the US Dollar in international trade was no longer backed by gold.

This led to a predictable response by the international holders of those US dollars.  The international holders of those dollars used their dollars to bid up the price of physical goods.  The result was the spike in inflation of the 1970s.  The Federal Reserve banks, founded in 1914, were charged with maintaining a stable economy in the United States.  That they did this admirably is seen in the fact that the Consumer Price Index, CPI,  between 1913 and 1944, was virtually flat, despite economic cycles, the Great Depression and two World Wars during this period.   

Since that time the Consumer Price index has not been flat.  11-year-old me mourned when my beloved comic books increased in price from 10 cents to 12 cents in 1962.  My first year at Brown University in 1969 was less than $4000 for room board and turion.  I graduated with a grand total of $1,600 in student loans.  When my son was ready to go two days a week for a few hours a day to nursery school in 1987, it cost more for his tuition than my first year of college!

It would be tempting to say that inflation has been simple and continuous, but that is not well correlated  with the observed Consumer Price Index.  It would be tempting to say that inflation is compound and continuous, but that also does not correlate well with observations.  What does correlate well is a simple linear equation with two discontinuities which happened in 1944, the year of Bretton Woods, and 1971, the year of the Nixon Shock.  It is suggested that these years are not an accident.

Before Bretton Woods, the US Dollar was used primarily for domestic trade. The Federal Reserve did an admirable job of seeing that the supply of money was consistent with the economy.  After Bretton Woods, despite John Maynard Keynes' suggestion that the Bancor be used for international trade, the United States Dollar backed by gold was the currency used in international trade, with results that were predictable (at least to economist Robert Triffin).  Eventually international trade grew to such an extent, that the Nixon Shock of 1971 occurred, with predictable results.

The CPI has increased steadily since that time.  It would appear that the growth in international trade has not been accounted for by the Federal Reserve, and since the US Dollar is still a major international trading currency, the Federal Reserve apparently grew the US money consistent with the growth in the US economy, but did not grow the US currency consistent with the growth in international trading. Today’s current persistent inflation is the result.

Kamila Valieva

 

Children Will Listen

Guide them along the way,
Children will glisten
Children will look to you for which way to turn
To learn what to be
Careful before you say, listen to me.
Children will listen.

Blaming the victim does not punish a crime.  Punishing the crime punishes the crime.

Is there a Russian team at the Winter Olympics or are there athletes at the Winter Olympics that happen to be Russian?  Based on the Parade of Nations, the playing of the National Anthem of the Gold Medal Winner, the display of the National flags for the Gold, Silver and Bronze medals on the podium, and the display of National flags on the uniforms of the athletes, etc., it would appear that Nations are at the Winter Olympics.  At least one Nation appears to have violated the rules of the Olympics and in doing so has placed its athletes in jeopardy.   If the International Olympic Committee cared about those athletes, it would not allow them to be placed in jeopardy.

It seems merciful not to penalize athletes for violations of their country.  But allowing those athletes to compete under these circumstances is not mercy for those athletes, it is being complicit in jeopardizing their well being.  Placing the onus on other athletes, who violated no rules and yet finish behind those athletes who have been found to violate Olympic rules, is unfair to those other athletes.  If the Olympics seeks to promote good sportsmanship, how is disputing the awarding of medals to those who finished above you ever promoting good sportsmanship?

Was the athlete involved in the  violation of Olympic rules a minor?  Absolutely, but that does not change the truth that the rules were violated.  Could a minor have violated those rules? Not according to the law.  Should the adults who violated those rules be punished? Absolutely.  But if child abuse occurs, is it fair to turn give the child back to the abuser, even if punishing the abuser will deprive the child of a place the child wishes to be.

An alternative, not allowing minors to compete at the Olympics, is unfair to those minors, those Nations, and the adults in those Nations who have not violated the rules.  It is throwing out the baby  with the bath water.  Child abuse might occur in families.  The solution should not be to remove all children from their families.  But if the adults found guilty of child abuse are to be punished, every step should be taken to make it clear that punishing the abuser is not also punishing the child.  Saying that Kamila Valieva willing took Trimetazidine is blaming the victim in a child abuse case.  Can the abuser be punished without punishing the victim?  If it means returning the victim back to the abuser and requiring non victims to be poor sports, it doesn’t seem that justice has been served. Collateral damage is still damage. Saying that collateral damage should be ignored does not make that damage go away.

 

An Iterative Process

Try Again

If at first you don't succeed (first you don't succeed),

Dust yourself off, and try again

You can dust it off and try again, try again

'Cause if at first you don't succeed (first you don't succeed),

You can dust it off, and try again

Dust yourself off and try again, try again

In mathematics, trying again is called iterating.

The User Equilibrium assignment in Travel Demand Models is an iterative process.  Those iterations  are of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm in order to compute an equilibrium volume.  Between iterations, the IMPEDANCE is updated.  NO other attributes,  especially capacity, should be changed until the equilibrium process is completed.  Changing the formula for impedance, or any link attributes, except the volume, during this process violates the assumptions of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm that is being used.

This does not mean that the initial link capacities are absolutely correct.  Capacities on links are most often based on characteristics of the design for that link, e.g. lane width.  However there are circumstances where the capacity depends  not only on the design characteristics of the link, but on the volumes on this or other links. 

·    For example, the capacity of a link approaching a signalized intersection is a function of the green to Cycle Length, g/C, of that signal.  An initial assumption has to be made for the g/C ratio before the volumes are known, but technically the g/C ratio is a function of the approach volume on that link divided by the approach volumes of all links approaching that intstection.  Those volumes are precisely what is being computed in the assignment iterations.

·   Similarly, the capacity of truck climbing lanes depends on the truck percentage on that link as well as truck percentages of adjacent links.  These percentages will not be known until after the assignment iterations are complete.

This issue is not unique to assignment. It can occur whenever an iterative process is used.  Assumptions may be made in order to solve the process, but these assumptions may be inconsistent with the solution.  In fact the Travel Demand Modeling process often already has such a feedback loop .  In order to distribute and find the mode choice in creating a trip table, it is necessary to know the impedances, e.g. skim times, between zones for each mode, which are not really known until after that trip table is assigned.  A feedback loop uses the impedances based on the initial assignment to update the inputs to trip distribution and mode choice.

A similar process is proposed for assignment.  Assumptions are made for network link capacities in order to solve for volumes on that network.  After the assignment ( NOT DURING THE ASSIGNMENT), the capacities can be recomputed based on the volumes which were assigned.  If these capacities are significantly different than the capacities that were assumed before the assignment began, then the link capacities should be updated and a new assignment should begin. This process should continue until the capacities that were assumed as the input to the assignment are sufficiently consistent with the capacities computed from the volumes that are output from the assignment.