Meetings

 

We’ll Meet Again

We'll meet again,
 Don't know where, don't know when,
But I know we'll meet again,
Some sunny day.

Math has something to add about this.

Meeting means that you are in the same place at the same time as another person.  That does not mean that the probability of your being in that same place at the same time as another is the same, but that your two probability distributions overlap.

Again depends on whether the event repeats. A normal random distribution is a logistics distribution, also known as the sech squared distribution because its Probability Density Function, PDF, uses the hyperbolic secant function,  1/(4s)*sech²((x-μ)/2s).  The mean location where you are is µ. The most probable location you will be is that location.  The odds of you being at location x is defined by the formula.  S is the range of the probabilities of your being at another location.  A standard normal distribution is one where there is a 50% probability of your being at the mean location, in which case s must be equal to 0.5.  If you and that other person share a very similar mean location, and you have met once, then there is a high probability that you will meet again, as shown in the graph on the left below.  But if your most probable locations,  are very different, i.e. you both are ordinarily not in the same place at the same time as shown in the graph on the right below, then the chances of your probability distributions overlapping in the first place was very small.  The “again” depends on the period in which these probability distributions repeat.

And this is where math comes in.  The most probable meeting, as you can imagine, is halfway between the most common locations, e.g. your homes.  This is true regardless of whether the other person is your neighbor or not.  This might be obvious from the graph on the right since the probability of a meeting is the product of the two Probability Density Functions, PDFs.  However, what might not be obvious, but it is also true, is that the probability of meeting at one person’s most common location, is the same as meeting at the other person’s most common location regardless of whether the other person is your neighbor or not. I.e. if the two PDFs are normally distributed, then the product of those PDFs is also normally distributed.  

But a hyperbolic secant function does NOT repeat in the real plane.  It has a period of 2πi, where i is the imaginary number, √-1.  This means that a random event only repeats in the imaginary plane.  This is unlike the conventional trigonometric function, sec(x), which repeats cyclically in the real plane with a period of 2π.  So if the meeting was truly a chance random encounter that had a very low probability of occurring in the first place, you may only meet again in an imaginary plane.  Random events do NOT repeat in the real plane.  A once in a lifetime event, will only occur once in your lifetime.  That “when” will occur again, but that may only be in your imagination.

Personhood

 

Hey Boss Man

Well, I'm gonna get me a boss man, one gonna treat me right
Work hard in the daytime, rest easy at night
Big boss man, can't you hear me when I call?
Well, you ain't so big, you're just tall, that's all

A person is a person no matter how tall.

The Decennial Census of the United States is used to apportion representation among the states.  This includes both wards of the state (children, women before the 19^th amendment, and chattel slaves before the 13th Amendment) and citizens of the state.  The census asks questions about the current sex, gender, of the wards and citizens, but it does not ask the sex at birth.  Similarly it does not ask the sexual orientation of the wards or citizens. So legally, the previous gender and the sexual orientation must not be matters that concern the standing of citizens or wards of the United States.

You may DOMINATE persons because of their current gender, their sexual orientation, etc.  But that only means that you DOMINATED that person, not that it is no longer a person. E.g. a taller person may DOMINATE  a smaller person, but that smaller person is STILL a person.

Wards of the state may be born and die between decennial census, but they are still wards of the state while they are alive.  They are considered to be wards of the state because, had they been alive at the time of the Decennial Census, they would have been included. Thus viable fetuses, who might also have been born have legal standing as wards of the People. But NONviable fetuses are not wards of the People.  They might be considered to be persons by some, but legally they are not wards of the People.

Corporations are also not reported in the US Census, so corporations must also not be considered People.  Corporations may consist of people, but the assets of the people holding shares in the corporation are considered to be separate from the assets of the corporation.  So the rights of the shareholders can only be assets of the corporation if they have been completely transferred to the corporation.  The rights of the People (e.g. Freedom of Speech) are not considered to be transferable, so while the individual has Freedom of Speech, if that individual is a shareholder of a corporation, then that corporation does not automatically share in that right.

Legal matters should be considered by certainty, not dominance.  A person that is dominated still has the same certainty as before.  A judge that is overseeing any matter on which that judge has an interest in the outcome might be on the dominant side of those outcomes, but he can not increase the certainty of that outcome.

You may dominate persons because of their current gender, their sexual orientation, etc.  But that only means that you dominated that person, not that it is not a person. A taller person may dominate  a smaller person, but that does not mean that  person is NOT a person. I’m with Dr. Seuss’ Horton The Elephant who said that  “A person is a person no matter how small”.

Projection?

 

Little Red Riding Hood

I'm gonna keep my sheep suit on,
‘Till I'm sure that you've been shown
That I can be trusted, walking with you alone.

But the fact that you are warning about wolves, may be a warning that you can’t ever be trusted.

A wolf in sheep’s clothing, is a name for someone who is trying to deceive to gain trust, i. e a wolf who is donning sheep’s clothing to hide among  the sheep.  A classic ruse of those in sheep’s clothing to gain the trust of the sheep, and to also make sure that  suspicion does not fall on themselves as a wolf, is to warn the sheep about wolves.   I wish that we could say that this is a modern insight, but Little Red Riding Hood and a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing are an ancient stories.  "The lady doth protest too much, methinks" is a line from the play Hamlet by William Shakespeare.  The warning against pickpockets, “Vultures”, in the classic movie Casablanca comes from a pickpocket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW5bcI0ADCY.

The point being that those who warn us about a threat may not be doing so not for our protection, but for their own purposes to deceitfully gain our trust.  Let this be a warning.  If someone warns you about something very vigorously, it may be because they are guilty of the same behavior about which they are warning. The warning may not be real and only be a projection of their own bad behavior that is intended to distract you from their bad behavior.  

Consequences

 

My Hero

Don't the best of them bleed it out
While the rest of them peter out?
Truth or consequence, say it aloud
Use that evidence, race it around
There goes my hero
Watch him as he goes

If you don’t believe in Truth, then probably also don't believe in Consequences.

You may know Bob Barker as the host of the Price is Right game show before Drew Carey. It is true that Bob Barker hosted that show 1972 to 2007, but I am old enough to remember that Bill Cullen was the host of the Price is Right from 1956 and that Bob Barker was the host of Truth or Consequences from 1956 to 1975. And it is Consequences that is the topic of this post.

Risk is the product of likelihood, probability, AND consequences, not just the probability alone. The likelihood of being struck by lightning in a thunderstorm is extremely low, but the consequences are extremely dire (you might die) which is why the risk is considered to be high. Conversely the likelihood of getting wet in a rainstorm which is not a thunderstorm is very high, but the consequences are very low (being wet until you dry out), so the risk of being out in an ordinary rainstorm is considered to be very low. But if you don’t believe in the truth, it is probable that you also don’t believe in the consequences either. It is not news that Donald Trump and the QAnon crowd do not believe in the truth and that  certainly has done enough damage. But he also apparently does not believe in the consequences either.        
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plays-down-consequences-us-default-could-be-maybe-nothing-2023-05-11/).

If you don’t believe in the truth that is one thing. If you also don’t believe in the consequences, you can understate the risk considerably and that can affect more than just yourself. If you engage in risky behavior and damage others besides yourself, then your denial of consequences affects more than just you. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, and we may tolerate what you consider to be your truth, but if you don’t accept the consequences either, then that can affect us all.

Trial by Combat?

 

With God On Our Side

Through many a dark hour
I've been thinkin' about this
That Jesus Christ was
Betrayed by a kiss
But I can't think for you
You'll have to decide
Whether Judas Iscariot
Had God on his side.

Are you certain that God is on your side?

“Trial by combat” is not forbidden in the United States. However dueling, assault, battery, manslaughter, murder, etc. are illegal, so presumably trial by combat is also illegal. However the matter has never been adjudicated and in same rare instances, “trial by combat” is called upon to decide disputes ( e.g. a custody case in Iowa, a case by Staten Island lawyer,  Rudy Giuliani’s  famous call to settle the election dispute of 2022 by “trial by combat” at the rally before the January 6^th insurrection at the US Capitol).

Despite the familiarity with deciding battles in war by champions (e.g. David vs. Goliath, Achilles vs. Hector), trial by combat is NOT part of the code of Hammurabi, the Law of Moses, Roman Law, etc. Its origin can be traced to Germanic Tribal Law. The purpose of a trial is to achieve certainty. A “trial by combat” can not achieve certainty unless one also assumes that the victor is supported by God and is thus certain. But because trial by combat can only assure the dominance of the victor, it does not achieve the certainty of his position, “trial  by combat” is NOT how disputes are settled in the civilized world. (Which is perhaps still another reason to disbar Rudy Giuliani?)  Dominance is NOT certainty.

Which calls into question the way in which Supreme Court decisions are rendered. A 5-4 decision might seem to indicate certainty, but it could also only indicate dominance. Scientific certainty is a function of the Standard Deviation, the square root of the variance, σ, the Greek letter Sigma. Scientific certainty is 3 (times) Sigma, reflecting 99.97% certainty. Particle physics demands even higher levels of certainty, 5 Sigma, 99.9994%. But both of these are only attainable with a very large number observations. A smaller sample panel will achieve less certainty. Also a smaller panel presents the possibility of a hung panel, no certainty, or only the lowest acceptable certainty to a single dissenter. To prevent a hung panel or a least offensive decision, it is suggested that at least 2 panel members be allowed to dissent from any decision. On a 9 member bench, this would mean  a 7-2 decision which is 97.72% certain or a 6-3 decision which is 96.68% certain. A 5-4 decision can not be differentiated from a decision by dominance and should not be considered binding. An 8-1 decisions would be 98.88% certain and a 9-0 decision would of course be 100 % certain. Both should be allowed, but neither should not be required because they give too much power to a single dissenter and might thus represent the lowest acceptable decision, not a certain decision. A 5-4 decision is thus only a sight more civilized version of  “trial by combat”.

 

Hillbillies

 

Beverly Hillbillies Theme Song

Well now it's time to say good bye to Jed and all his kin.
And they would like to thank you folks fer kindly droppin in.
You're all invited back next week to this locality
To have a heapin helpin of their hospitality
Hillbilly that is. Set a spell, Take your shoes off.
Y'all come back now, y'hear?

And we need some of that hospitality!

Hillbilly is a derogatory term applied to the residents of Appalachia and the Ozarks  I have worked for the Appalachian Regional Commission as a consultant. There I learned that I married into a family that grew up on Appalachian Highway Corridor Z. One of the people whom I admire most in the world is Dolly Parton. I love the performers of American Roots music.  What I am about to say is NOT intended to disparage those people.

But it has to be noted that the leaders of the House Republican Freedom caucus are from Appalachia. The headquarters of the Aryan Nation, a white supremacist hate group, was for years in Appalachia. Marjorie Taylor Greene represents Northeastern Georgia, which is geographically in Appalachia. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri is heavily supported by the Ozarks. Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is famous for writing the Hillbilly Elegy.

One of the hallmarks of the People of the USA is a support for the system that is America, . This includes ALL Americans, including blacks, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, and immigrants who are not heavily represented in Appalachia, the Ozarks, or rural America.  It depends on a belief in the truth, as it is presented.

The hollers of Appalachia, including those of my wife’s family, have limited resources to be exposed to others and learn the truth. News and rumors in these isolated mountain hollers mean that they are limited to the media that is presented to them. They may see only major cites on television, have seldom visited those cities, and a “If it bleeds, it leads” news media gives a distorted picture of what life is like in major metropolitan areas.

A fear of strangers, coupled with a media presence that presents them with a distorted picture of life and the residents of those cities, is a difficult barrier to overcome. But when confronted with those who are strangers, and correct information about those who are strangers, my experience is that “hillbillies” are incredibly welcoming and supportive. We need some of their hospitality, not to exclude them, Y'hear.

Enemies

 

You’ve Got A Friend in Me

You got troubles, I've got 'em too
There isn't anything I wouldn't do for you
We stick together and see it through
'Cause you've got a friend in me
You've got a friend in me

Is the enemy of your enemy your friend?

Your enemy is probably also your friend’s enemy. But that does not mean that the enemy of your enemy is your friend. Some recent historical examples.

Saddam Hussein was considered to be a friend of the United States when he was at war Iran, an enemy of the US. But this led him to believe that he could invade another friend of the United States, Kuwait. And because of that invasion, Saddam Hussein became our enemy in both Gulf Wars.

The Mujahedeen were fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. And that is why the United States believed that the Mujahedeen were our friends. That is until they expelled the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, became the Taliban, and gave shelter to Al Qaeda, our enemies.

Osama bin Laden was an admirer of the United States, until when fighting Saddam Hussein, the United States found it necessary to set up military bases in Saudia Arabia and other Muslim holy places. From the perspective of bin Landen that defiled those holy places. In retaliation he founded Al-Qaeda and sought support among the Taliban of Afghanistan.

Joseph Stalin signed a treaty with Nazi Germany and divided Poland with Nazi Germany. It was not until he was later attacked by Nazi Germany that that he became an ally of the United States. Afterwards, the Iron Curtain descended, and he again became an enemy of the United States.

In each instance the “friend” who bcame our enemy was NOT showing that  “There isn't anything I wouldn't do for you.” The "friend” was doing what is best for himself, his own User Optimal. A friend will benefit you even if that is not to his benefit, his own User Optimal. A friend does not ask what is in it for me. A friend asks what is in it for you. You can find common cause with an enemy if your User Optimals are the same. But a friend seeks to achieve YOUR User Optimal even when it is not HIS User Optimal.

The enemy of your enemy might be a friend. But it his actions with respect to you, not to your enemy, that determine whether he is a friend. In other words, “Ask not what your country he can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country him.”  That’s being a friend!