Vaccination

 Sung by Dolly Parton to the tune of Jolene

Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine 

I'm begging of you, 

Please don't hesitate

If you have already had COVID should you be vaccinated?

Senator Rand Paul is a physician, an opthamologist. His position on not getting a vaccine, because he had COVID-19, is not due to a lack of understanding of the science, but more because he apparently only values User Optimal decisions, thinking of himself, as important; and sees no value in System Optimal decisions, thinking of others. 

There seems to be confusion between the virus and the disease.  There should not be.  People can have HIV, but not have AIDS,  There is a difference between the virus, HIV, and the disease caused by the virus, AIDS.

There is also a distinction between the SARS-CoV-2, the corona virus, and COVID-19, the disease. Just because one has had the disease does not mean that you can not still harbor the virus.  The immune system can work against the virus, sterile immunity, or work against the disease, immunity.  At this point, scientists believe that  vaccines confer 70% to 85% sterile immunity against the virus, and 95% immunity  against the disease, but they do not know how much time immunity lasts in either case.  Similarly if you had, and recovered from, COVID you might only have immunity from the disease, not immunity from the virus.

Given that there is a distinction between the disease and the virus, there are three possible states:

1.     NO virus and NO Disease; no transmission possible and no disease.

2.     Virus and NO Disease;  transmission possible, and no disease.

3.     Virus and Disease.  Transmission possible and disease.

There is of course a fourth state, NO virus and disease, but to the best of our knowledge this is state is not  possible.

If you have the virus then you can transmit the virus to other.  If you have the virus then you are at higher risk for the disease.  Among the outcomes of the disease is a higher risk of death. Yes, it is only a 2% risk, but if that happens you are 100% dead.

At this point it is not known if recovering from the disease confers sterile immunity from the virus or immunity from the disease.

If you place no value on transmitting the virus to others, and you have recovered from the disease, then getting a vaccine has no value. It is not possible to transmit the virus unless you have the virus, but there probably is no chance of getting the disease, if you have had the disease.  If you place a value on transmitting the virus then there is value in getting the vaccine.  What Rand Paul, and anyone who has recovered from the disease and is not getting the vaccine is saying, is that they place no value on transmitting the virus to others.

By that logic, it must also be safe to have unprotected sex with someone who is in remission from AIDS because you think that they could not transmit HIV to you.

There is a solution to people who harbor the virus but have immunity to the disease.  Those people are called Typhoid Marys, after the early  20th Century Irish cook who had immunity from disease caused by the typhoid bacteria but who harbored the typhoid bacteria. We quarantine them from society for the safety of society.  I wouldn’t use Ted Cruz as a travel agent, because I am not sure that Cancun is the right place to quarantine, but if Senator Paul will tell society where he would like to quarantine, I am sure that society will be happy to accommodate him.