Odds

Chances Are

Chances are 'cause I wear a silly grin
The moment you come into view
Chances are you think that I'm in love with you

What is the chance of observing the mean?

What is the probability of observing the mean in a normal distribution. You have a 68% chance of observing the mean plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean. ONLY 68%! What if I want to improve my chances to 100%. Can I decrease the standard deviation?

This is the problem with a normal distribution. Decreasing the standard deviation does NOT increase this probability. You can decrease the standard deviation to almost zero, but that does not change that probability. That is why a campaign to reduce deviation, like the Spanish Inquisition or book banning will never work. It is like the old math puzzle.

“Think of a number, double it, add six, divide it in half, and subtract the number you started with. The answer is three. “ 

The math is such that the answer will always be three, because what you are effectively doing is dividing six by two. All of the rest is a distraction, an obfuscation. The effort to decrease the standard deviation is an obfuscation.  You can’t increase the odds of observing the mean unless you can accept something other than a normal distribution. However since any distribution can be expressed as the sum of normal distributions, what you are effectively doing is saying by not being normal, you are creating more than one normal distribution within the total group distribution. And each of those other normal distributions will only have a 68% change of observing their own, not the group, mean. Is it any wonder that those who try to reduce deviation are also trying to exclude others from their group?  That is not how the Force math works.  That is NOT playing the odds, that is BEING odd, abnormal.