Certainty IV

 

Michael Row the Boat Ashore

Jordan's river is chilly and cold, hallelujah
Chills the body but not the soul, hallelujah

Michael row the boat ashore, hallelujah
Michael row the boat ashore, hallelujah
Sister help to trim the sail, hallelujah
Sister help to trim the sail, hallelujah

What position in Heaven is the Archangel Michael?

In a previous blog post I claimed that the Top is one of the Top Three. IWAS WRONG!!!!. While it is easy to compute dominance, it is the winner, first place, it is harder to calculate certainty, the best. The problem is that in any contest it could be determined by pure luck and the best could finish second. The Trinitarian in me made the mistake of thinking that the Top Three in Heaven were obviously the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost Spirit, which makes the Archangel Michael, the Head of the Heavenly Host, number four. The problem is that while it is true that they are the Top Thee, a contest can not include the absolute. So what is the certainty of the best being in the Top X finishers, excluding the absolute.

This is a statistics problem. If points are awarded to finishers based on the inverse of the number of places receiving points e.g., if 10 places receive points, then 10 points for a first-place finish, 9 points for second place, etc. What I forgot to  consider previously is that any finisher can only finish, get points, once, e.g., you can’t get points for first AND second place ....unless you are the absolute and the Pauli Exclusion principle doesn’t apply. Thus you know the total points which can be awarded (the sum of the number of places getting points) divided into the number of points awarded for a mean-finish. The certainty is 100% minus this number.

While it is true that if only the first place is awarded points, that first space is 100% dominant, but the certainty of its being the best is only 50%, no better than luck. The certainty increases if points are awarded to the first two places, such that the certainty that the best is in that Top 2 has increased to 67%. It is 75% certain that the best is in the Top 3. The number of places that receive points increases the certainty that the best is among those receiving points, but that increase is at a decreasing rate as shown below for the top 20 places.

There is of course a limit, and that limit is 100% certainty that the best is among the places receiving points, as the number of places being awarded points approaches infinity. However there always has to be more contestants in the contest than those receiving points so absolute certainty can never be achieved. So while the Top Three in Heaven may have certainty because they are an absolute, and Michael may be the best of the angels, but the certainty that he finishes in the money, gets a medal, etc. in any contest of the angels has no more than 75% certainty as long as 4 or more angels compete.