Polling III

 

Something

Something in the way she knows
And all I have to do is think of her
Something in the things she shows me
I don't want to leave her now
You know I believe and how

Do Something?

According to Game Theory in economics, it takes three players to form a perfect game.  (Yes it is seems like there are only two teams, but what about the refs?) N users can try to serve as a system, but the rule of three remains.  Let's call one third of the system "Do Something".  Let's call one third of the system "Burn Everything".  That means that any decisions will be up to that the remaining third.  Let's call them "Burn Some Things, but Keep Some Things" 

That means that any unbiased poll should at least be 44.4%, 1/3 + just under half of 1/3; and that same poll should be no more than 55.6%, 1/3 + just over half of 1/3.  I would not get to excited about any single political poll that shows less than 50%.  It is the trend which shows how that middle third is leaning that is important. A single poll for a single political event is no better than touting a horse race.  It is better to BE the house than to try to BEAT the house. 

But having said that anything can happen at a single political event, say on election day in November, this is my fantasy scenario.  The Democrats take the House of Representatives AND the White House, but the Republicans take the Senate by 51-49.  Bloodshed ensues as promised.  But the Electoral College meets, votes, and the combined House and Senate certifies.  But even though the Senate is controlled by Republicans, there is no deadlock in the ensuing years.  Either Senator Murkowski or Senator Collins change parties and become independents and caucus with the Democrats, making the Senate 50-50 and Vice President Harris goes back to breaking ties. Maybe both will switch parties and it becomes 51-49 the other way and VP Harris gets a rest.  Will I be betting on this?  Don't be silly.  Will I be surprised by this? Absolutely not.