Trust

 

Oriental Sadness 

She's been talking to somebody.
Who told her lies?
She'll never trust in anybody no more.
Who told her lies?

If those governing tell lies, how can we trust them?

The US one dollar bill carries the motto "In God We Trust", but we are also trusting those who govern, control, society, including those that issue money.  Capitalism assumes that there is perfect information available to both the buyer and the seller.  However this is an average over time. It does not apply to every transaction.  Over time, those transactions that are unsatisfactory will fail and those that are beneficial will succeed.

Like all statistics, this does not apply to each individual transaction.  Knowing that a fair coin flip will be heads one half of the time, provides no information on what the next coin flip will be. Information is unlikely to be available for every transaction.  The buyer and seller have to trust each other for their transaction to be satisfactory. 

It would be great if complete information were available for every transaction and trust was unnecessary.  However, economics shows that users will seek the lowest possible cost/price.  If that cost/price includes using tainted products, child labor, etc. then users will seek this cost/price regardless of their own long-term interests. That is why laws are passed to ensure that harmful outcomes, whether child labor, tainted or counterfeit products, wages below a minimum, etc. can not be considered.  However buyers and sellers still need to trust that the enactment and enforcement of these laws will be in their best interests.  That is why lies matter.  If you can’t trust someone about one thing, then you may not trust them about anything.  

Private Property

 

We Can Be Together

Come on all you people standing around
Our life's too fine to let it die
We can be together
All your private property is target for your enemy
And your enemy
Is we 

Is private property Godly and public property Godless? 

Communism is defined in the dictionary as “a political theory derived from Karl Marx, advocating class war and leading to a society in which all property is publicly owned, and each person works and is paid according to their abilities and needs.” I happen to be a Marxist myself, but I aspire to follow Julius Henry “Groucho” Marx. Karl Marx also espoused that religion was the opiate of the people and his followers are considered to be Godless.  My college chaplain, who hardly could be called Godless, was a Franciscan priest who took a vow of poverty. He believed that all property was communal, public.  Thus while Communism might be claimed to be Godless, public property, can also be considered to be property owned by God’s people, and is thus by definition not Godless. 

Similarity private property is not Godly.  In fact, Christians believe that the “love of money
(a measure of private property) is the root of all evil”.  The Bible might have said that God gave man dominion over the earth, but that that should be taken to mean all mankind, and not an individual man. 

While I live in private property, I only have to take a few steps outside my door to be on public property, a street.  Even those who believe that private property is Godly, do not think that travelling on a public street is a Godless action.  

Neither private nor public property is Godless in its own right.  It is how that property is used, which determines whether it or not it is Godly.

Zero and Infinity

My Hero, Zero

You're here,

And nobody really knows

How wonderful you are.

Why we could never reach the star,

Without you, Zero, my hero,

Zero, how wonderful you are.

When we talk about zero or infinity, we should understand what is meant by these terms.

Zero is not just the smallest number.  It is the smaller than the smallest number that can be imagined.  The smallest observable length is the Planck Length, which is  1.62× 10-35 meters.  At the speed of light, it would take  3.34 times 10-9 seconds.  Zero length is even shorter than this length. Zero time is even shorter than this time.   

At the other extreme, infinity is not just the largest number, It is larger than the largest number that can be imagined.  If the Planck length is the smallest observable number, then the inverse of the Planck length, is 6.17 times  1034 meters, which is 1.7 times 1020 light years.  This also means that  it would that it would take 1.7 times 1020  years to travel this distance  at the speed of light.  An infinite length is even large than this length, and infinite time is larger than this time.

Zero and infinity are necessary for mathematics.  But just because something is a large number it does not mean that it is infinite.  Even if something is a small number, it is still greater than zero.  Whenever we deal with large or small numbers it is important to remember this.

Strategy and Tactics II

 

Love and Marriage

Love and marriage, love and marriage

They go together like a horse and carriage

This I tell you brother

You can't have one without the other.

Some things just go together.  But we shouldn't overemphasize one at the expense of the other.

Strategy and Tactics are often used in discussing military affairs.  If we lose every battle, we can’t expect to win the war, but according to the familiar adage  we don’t want to “win the battle (e.g. have a tactical victory) but lose the war (e.g. have a strategic defeat).”  There are those battles that are too costly to win,  i.e. Pyrrhic victories.  There are also strategic retreats where the battle may be lost in order to fight again and win the war. 

Pearl Harbor might have been a tactical victory for the Japanese, but it led to their strategic defeat. Dunkirk is remembered not as a tactical victory by the British, but as a strategic retreat that was an important part of the British victory in WWII. 

Planning, which is merely another name for strategy, is different than operations, which is merely another name for tactics.  They have different goals and time frames.  But both are needed.  It would be a mistake to have an operational success today, that leads to a long-term planning failure in the future.  Both planning and operations are needed in a successful organization.  You can’t have one without the other.

It's Relative

 

How Deep is the Ocean?

And if I ever lost you

How much would I cry?

How deep is the ocean?

How high is the sky?

Are large numbers useful?

Large numbers can be useful, if people understand the difference between relative and absolute values.  A large number by itself is an absolute measure  A large number in comparison with another large number is a relative measure.  To avoid confusion, an effort should be made to state something using both measures, and see if the perception changes.

The vaccination program for  COVID-19 was opened to persons over 65 in Massachusetts on February 18, 2021.  At that time, Governor Baker announced that this would open the vaccination to over one million people.  He further announced that 70,000 appointments would be available beginning on that date.

70,000 sounds like a large number and in absolute terms it is a large number.  However in relative terms it is 70,000 appointments for 1 million people or 7% of the eligible population.  That doesn’t sound so large.

Similarly if we hear that Tiffany’s is having a 50% percent off sale, it sounds like a great deal. But if stated in absolute terms, a $10,000 necklace is on sale for $5,000, that absolute number might only be a good deal if a person can afford that $5,000.

It is useful to state numbers as both relative and absolute values before making a judgement.  This might lead to different judgements being made.

Climate Change

 

Stormy Weather

Don't know why

There's no sun up in the sky

Stormy weather

Since my man and I ain't together

Keeps raining all of the time

There is a difference between weather and climate.

At this moment, there is artic weather in Texas.  Is this evidence that the climate in Texas is cooling, not warming?  Hardly.  Climate is the average of weather over a long period of time. If the weather is colder than is normal now, but has been hotter than normal on previous days, it is an indication that the weather is more variable, not that the climate is colder.  The time period matters.  If the only evidence is from the now, then yes Texas is experiencing Artic conditions.  However climate is about more than the weather right now.

Those who confuse climate with weather are ignoring both the evidence and the definitions. Just as a failure to convict by a supermajority at the February 2021 impeachment hearing should not be confused to be a finding of innocence by a majority at that same impeachment hearing.  Since some of the votes for acquittal were made on constitutional jurisdiction grounds, e.g. the public statements of Sen. McConnell, it can not be claimed that even the vote at impeachment trial was a verdict of innocence.  Even though the Senate apparently voted on the constitutional jurisdiction issue on February 9^th, at least some of the votes for acquittal were not based on the evidence but on constitutional jurisdiction grounds. Those might have voted guilty on the article of impeachment based solely on the evidence.  Additionally since the Senate also took an oath to impartially hear the evidence, and some Senators were either not impartial, or did not even pretend to listen to the evidence, then whether there was a supermajority of impartial Senators on the evidence, not the jurisdiction, was not determined.  

An acquittal in the O.J. Simpson case did not mean that O.J. Simpson could not be found guilty later either in civil court or the court of popular opinion.  A finding depends on the evidence, regardless of what the conditions are now, and on the definitions.  Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. An acquittal is NOT a finding of innocence.  Cold weather is NOT a finding of a colder climate.

Third Parties II

 

It Takes Two

It takes two, baby
It takes two, baby,
To make a dream come true
It just takes two 

It may take two, but what if there are more than two? 

A decision has to be made on: who serves in a government; who is served by a government; and who, and at what amount, is taxed by a government.  This presumes that there is a government, but those who advocate for no government need to explain whom will provide the benefits supported by a government. (We The People ….and all that jazz😉). 

Those who serve in, control, government need not include all members of society.  The US Constitution excludes persons from serving in certain offices based on their place of birth or age. ( e.g. a President must be a natural born citizen over 35 years old.)  Those served by the government need not be limited to those who can serve in the government  (e.g. spotted owls may be served by government, but no one expects them to serve in government).  Those who are taxed by the government need not be authorized by that government. ( e.g. The IRS estimates that about 6 million unauthorized immigrants file individual income tax returns each year. Research reviewed by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicates that between 50 percent and 75 percent of unauthorized immigrants pay federal, state, and local taxes.)

A political party must make decisions about whether it supports inclusive or exclusive government.  (e.g. who serves in, is served by, and/or is taxed by, government.) A political party must make a decision as to whether it supports a limited or a strong government.  ( the support for NO government by a political party, who are vying to run a government, is a non sequitur.)  While these decisions are continuous not binary, let’s assume that they are only binary.  Then there are potentially four groups of people.  The problem is that the US government by supporting single-ballot plurality-rule elections that are structured within single-member districts tends to favor a two-party system. That is Duverger’s Law.  Since there are potentially at least four groups, and only two parties, two groups may not find a party to represent them.

This dynamic might explain the tension that exist in society today.  Four groups are vying for the control of only two parties. Either groups agree to exist within a party, or they exclude themselves from any party.