Thursday, March 24, 2022

Bias

 

That Song About the Midway

So lately you've been hiding, it was somewhere in the news
And I'm still at these races with my ticket stubs and my blues
And a voice calls out the numbers, and it sometimes mentions mine
And I feel like I've been working overtime, overtime

Do the numbers ever lie?

I have had to conduct, or use, numerous surveys in my engineering career.  Surveys are done because it is NOT cost effective to observe the behavior of an entire universe. However you can obtain statistically accurate results if the sample being surveyed looks like the universe.

If the survey sample looks like the universe, then the sample is said to be unbiased.  If the sample does NOT look like the universe, then the sample is said to be biased.  yes I know that this is an emotionally loaded term, but that IS the statistical term). That does not mean that the sample is invalid, just that the portion that is underrepresented has to be oversampled in order to eliminate the bias.

For example, if according to the 2020 Census, the US population is 13.4% black and 50.8% female then in a nine person sample, say SCOTUS, there should be 4.5 women and 1.2 blacks.  If there are 8 justices on the Supreme Court and only 3 of them are women and only 1 justice is black, then the next justice on SCOTUS should be a black woman.

It does not matter if the sample is screws, household travel, corporations, or Supreme Court Justices.  If the sample is biased then a method to correct that bias is to oversample.  If you oppose that oversampling, then by definition you are biased. Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Justice

 

No Peace, No Justice

We glow in the dark
And we shine in the light
The souls of Kings and Queen
As we all rise

Can we have peace and justice?

“With great power, comes great responsibility.”  This phrase comes from Spiderman comics.  It describes a System Optimal solution.  A User Optimal  solution  would be “With great power, comes great opportunity”.  The tension between User Optimal solutions and System Optimal solutions is at the heart of many conflicts, most recently the invasion of Ukraine, a User Optimal solution by the Russian Government, versus the opposition to that invasion, a System Optimal solution; and the hearings on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson, where the Democrat Senators appear to be on the side of the System while the Republican Senators appear to be on the side of the Users.  The US Constitution designated The People as its sovereign but recognized that people will act as individuals and might not act for the good of the sovereign People.  A majority of people acting through their representatives may decide that an action should be undertaken, such as administering justice.  But that is justice as determined by the majority.  The constitution was not ratified without protections of the individuals against the tyranny of the majority.  The Bill of Rights established the rights of the individual which can not be abridged by the majority and the US Constitution was not ratified until these protections were in place.

The framers of the US Constitution also recognized that they were only human and could not be perfect.  They established that it would take a super majority, NOT a majority, to amend the Constitution. A majority of the people could view a law as just, but it takes a supermajority to amend the Constitution.

The constitution is not infallible.  It did not recognize the probable formation of political parties which led to the 12th Amendment.  It did not consider that life expectancies would increase and that presidents might need to be limited to two terms which led to the  25th Amendment.  Morality could also change.  While slavery was originally allowed, it was abolished by the 14th Amendment.  Women were granted the right to vote by the 19th Amendment.  Morality can change and lead to mistakes.  Alcohol was prohibited by the 18th amendment and then allowed again  by the 21st amendment.  An income tax was deemed unconstitutional before the passage of the 16th amendment.

The Constitutional purpose of the Supreme Court is NOT to administer justice.  It is to decide when a law is in conflict with that Constitution.  Claims that a nominee to the Supreme Court is soft on crime are irrelevant. The only consideration should be whether that  nominee can correctly establish that a law is in conflict with the Constitution.  Justice by a simple majority is still vigilante justice.  The People decide justice. Not a majority of the people, but a Constitutionally mandated supermajority of The People.  The Supreme Court decides whether the laws enacted by the majority are in conflict with the justice of The People as established in the Constitution.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Can the Supreme Court be wrong  in its decisions? Of course.  Dred Scott, Plessy v. Ferguson.

Can the Supreme Court make a correct decision but explain that decision poorly? Of course.  Roe v. Wade.

The question is not whether fetuses are people, marriage is only between different genders, what Critical Race Theory is and how it should be applied, or what is justice for pornographers.  The questions that will be faced by the Supreme Courts are only whether a law is in conflict with the Constitution. The rights of the majority versus their government is not in question.  The Constitution is about protecting the rights of the minority from the government.

Conservatives used to be those who realized that while the People, collectively acting though the government for a System Optimal, must still be comprised of people who are individuals.  Those individuals might be acting in their own self interest, are User Optimalists, and not in the interests of the People.  Also people as individuals can change their position or lie about their original position.  Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely leads to a belief that government, the System, should be composed of as few individuals as possible with as little power as possible.  People as individuals might also not see the long-term consequences of their short-term decisions.  To protect against unintended consequences, as few actions  as possible should be undertaken.

Conservatives used to favor small government, not a User Optimal government which is an oxymoron.  Activist judges who invent rights are not confined to so-called liberals.  See the unstated right to self defense justifying a law to bear arms NOT in support of a well-regulated militia invented by Justice Scalia; Corporations who are NOT listed as people have protected speech; yet that right was granted by conservative justices. The Voting Rights Act applied to governments not individuals, and governments are NOT limited by a life span, and yet conservative justices decided that those governments have "suffered" long enough. These were not liberal decisions.  The Republican majority in the Senate is acting as if they are User Optimalists which is NOT a conservative position.  Framing the nomination hearing as a conservative versus liberal conflict is a lie.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Ketanji Brown Jackson Nomination Hearings

 

 It’s A Shame

 Why do you use me, try to confuse me
How can you stand, to be so cruel
Why don't you free me, from this prison
Where I serve my time as your fool

Senator Graham, have you no shame?

 

”Several GOP members of the committee took time Monday to lament the treatment of Brett Kavanaugh, Robert Bork and other conservative nominees during their own confirmation hearings. Kavanaugh's contentious hearing in 2018 was centered on accusations of sexual misconduct, allegations Kavanaugh denied before being confirmed to the bench.

 Senator Lindsey Graham said the panel was already off to a better start with Jackson, stating lawmakers "couldn't go back to our offices during Kavanaugh without getting spit on." 

https://www.newsweek.com/ketanji-brown-jackson-hearing-day-one-takeaways Ketanji Brown Jackson Nomination Hearing: 5 Key Takeaways From Day One BY ALEXANDRA HUTZLER ON 3/21/22 AT 4:23 PM EDT 

Are you kidding? Do you not remember the Fortas hearings? Democratic President Johnson nominated Abe Fortas to be elevated from an Associate Justice to Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Senator Thurmond, Lindsey Graham’s predecessor in the Senate, made a spectacle of those hearings, famously hosting a pornographic film festival after hours. I am sure that Senator Graham would have been a perfect uncontentious gentleman during the hearings on Merrick Garland, but Republican Majority Leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell never allowed those hearings to take place. While I agree with Justice Thomas that the Supreme Court has become too political, I hope you can forgive me for thinking that his statement was gaslighting especially in light of the political activities of his wife, including actively supporting “Stop The Steal” lie and attending the rally before the January 6th Capitol Riot.   

When Republican Presidents do not nominate Justices to the Supreme Court who can credibly be charged with workplace  sexual harassment (Clarence Thomas); sexual assault (Brett Kavanaugh) or were not the notable exception to Nixon’s Saturday Night Massacre (Robert Bork) then perhaps the hearings could be less contentious.

Maybe then we can get justices who actually read and uphold the constitution; and will protect equal justice under the law; and will not invent a right to bear arms in self defense apart from the stated Second Amendment purpose to regulate a militia ( Antonin Scalia).  If Senator Graham and the GOP leaders have no shame, I am ashamed for them.

 

 

Sunday, March 20, 2022

Herschel Walker

 

Bargain

I'd pay any price just to win you
Surrender my good life for bad
To find you I'm gonna drown an unsung man

I'd call that a bargain
The best I ever had
The best I ever had 

Our Congressional Representatives are supposed to be our best.

The Constitution designates the people as the sovereign.  As such, the people of course can not each make laws.  The people of each state and congressional district instead chose  a  representative to make the sovereign's laws.  The drafters of the Constitution thought that certainly the people of each state and its congressional districts would chose to send those who are the best of those people.

The people of Georgia’s 14th Congressional District have currently elected Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has made gaffes too numerous to mention.  Georgia appears poised to elect Herschel “The Turkey” Walker as their Senator.  Mr. Walker is of course loyal to “Massa” Trump, who owned the New Jersey Generals of the WFL who  drafted Mr. Walker and rescued him from his senior year at the University of Georgia. Given Mr. Walker's recent statements on evolution, I am not sure that the University would want to say that he learned this at the University of Georgia.

Georgia,  clearly you need to be informed that there is a difference between the most famous and the best. I was once told that I would not have a speaking role at a public hearing in Georgia because “I would not play well in Valdosta”  At the time I was offended.  I now realize that that it was a compliment.

Vladimir Putin

 

Don’t Be Cruel

Baby, if I made you mad
For something I might have said,
Please, let's forget my past,
The future looks bright ahead,
Don't be cruel to a heart that's true.

Vladimir Putin not only was cruel.  He was an Ass.

In 1979, Martin Short starred in the short-lived situation comedy The Associates.  It was notable for its cast, which included Wilfred Hyde-White (Colonel Pickering in My Fair Lady), Alley Mills  (the mother in The Wonder Years ), Joe Regalbuto ( Frank Fontana in Murphy Brown) and its legendary writer/producer, James Brooks (The Simpsons, Taxi, Mary Tyler Moore Show, etc.).  

The third episode featured a line that should be remembered.  In that episode, Martin Short’s firm was representing the defendant in a palimony suit.  The plaintiff was arguing that she gave up a promising career as a opera singer and was entitled to compensation.  Martin Short doubted her claim and asked her to sing on the witness stand.  She of course sang magnificently and proved her claim.  I am sure that at that time I identified with Martin Short.  At my current age, I identify more with the principal of the firm, Wilfred Hyde-White.  After the verdict, which Martin Short’s firm lost, Hyde-White asks Martin Short what he learned at the trial.  Martin Short gave the standard law school advice not to ask a question to which you don’t know the answer.  Hyde-White replied that the real lesson was “Don’t be an Ass”.

Vladimir  Putin would have been wise to have learned this lesson before he invaded Ukraine. He thought that the Ukrainians would rise up and welcome the Russian forces.  He not only did not know the result before he took an action.  He was cruel. And he was an Ass.

Monday, March 14, 2022

Distribution of Income II

 

Who Needs Money?

What if my pockets are empty as can be?
Who need money?Not me
Tell me about it

How are incomes distributed?

If you want to describe a distribution you need to define:

  •         the mean, the first moment of the distribution;
  •        the variance, the second moment of the distribution; 
  •        the skewness, the third moment of the distribution; and
  •        the kurtosis, the fourth moment of the distribution.

If the skew is zero, then the distribution is said to be “normal”.  In a normal distribution, the median and the mean are equal.  The difference between the mean and the median defines the magnitude of the skew of the data, and the direction of that skew.  If the mean is greater than the median, then the skew is positive and it is skewed towards higher values.  If the mean is less than the median, then the skew is negative and it is skewed towards lower values.

The ratio of the mean to the median is an indication of the magnitude of the skew of the distribution.  If the ratio is greater than 1, then not only is the distribution is skewed towards higher values, but the higher this ratio, the more the distribution is skewed to these higher values.  If the ratio is less than 1, then not only is distribution skewed towards these lower values, but the lower this ratio, the more the distribution is skewed to these lower values. If the ratio is equal to 1, the distribution is not skewed, aka is “normal”.

The Luxembourg Income Study https://www.lisdatacenter.org/, reports on Mean and Median income  for numerous countries over a period of time.  The distribution of income can not be “normal”, have a ratio of 1.0, because that would require reporting negative incomes.  For all  of the countries over the reporting period, the weighted average ratio of Mean to Median income is 1.37.  In almost all countries the trend is towards a decreasing ratio.  For developed countries, the income distribution seems to have reached an equilibrium near a ratio of 1.2.  The variation in this ratio once an equilibrium has been reached appears due to randomness of incomes and their reporting.  

The United States appears to be an outlier to the trend of a decreasing ratio, and thus is skewed towards higher incomes.  The United Kingdom also showed this trend during the period 1970 to 2009, however it has reversed this trend and shows a decreasing skew from higher incomes since that time.

It appears that the United States supports economic conditions that increase the skew towards higher incomes and that is in contrast to economic conditions for the rest of the countries that are reporting.





Saturday, March 12, 2022

Collaborations

 

My Funny Valentine

But don't change a hair for me
Not if you care for me
Stay little valentine stay
Each day is Valentine's day

My Favorite Things

When the dog bites,
When the bee stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
I simply remember my favorite things,
And then I don't feel so bad.

Storytelling can be a collaborative art

 I am including two song lyrics in this blog, not because the lyrics are a focus, but because My Funny Valentine was by Rodgers and Hart and My Favorite Things was by Rodgers and Hammerstein.  While the lyricist were by different, they both collaborated with the same musician, Richard Rodgers.  I should have known, but did not know, that this was the same person into later in my life.

The performance of a song is not by the singer, the musicians, the lyricists, or the composers. It is a collaboration by each of these artists.  The arts can be collaborative.  Shakespeare was a member  of the the Lord Chamberlain's Men who built and performed at the Globe Theatre.  The Greek Chorus was a part of the plays of Sophocles.  We go to see an orchestra or a play.  The end credits of motion pictures can list hundreds of people.  While some artists may be individuals, many more contribute to a collaboration.  Storytelling, the arts, can be collaborative.The Oscars fittingly end with the award for the Best Picture.  The highlight of SAG awards is the award for the best cast.