Certainty II

 

You’re The Top

You're the Tower of Pisa
You're the smile on the Mona Lisa
I'm a worthless check, a total wreck, a flop
But if, baby, I'm the bottom, you're the top

But how many are on top!

With apologies to Billboard,  it is not the Top 100.  With apologies to  AP sports polls, it is not the Top 25.  With apologies to David Letterman, it is not the Top 10.  It might be only the Top 3 that matters.

The top, first place, indicates dominance, but it does not indicate certainty.  Appearing on a top list can indicate certainty, but while more than a certain number increases visibility by appearing on the list, it does nothing to increase certainty. It is customary to rank things in order and to award the lowest number of points to the bottom of that list and the highest number of points to first place finishes. For example in a Top 5 list, 5 points for first place, 4 points for second place, and so on.  But the number of places in that list does not usefully increase certainty.  If there is a list of one, the certainty is only 25%.  If there is a list of two, there is a certainty of 50%.  If there is a list of the Top 3, there is a certainty of 75%.  If there is a Top 4 list, there is a certainty that the top is on that list of 100%.  If there is a list of the Top 5, there is a certainty that the top is on that list of 125%.  But anything more than 99.99999+% is also imaginary.  That means that the Top 3 list has the greatest certainty without being imaginary.  The number of podium appearances or the number of Olympic medals matter. Anything more is just window dressing. Good for public relations, but not certainty.