Tucker Carlson

Traitor

And ain't it funny
How you said you were friends?

Now it sure as hell don't look like it

You betrayed me

And I know that you'll never feel sorry

For the way I hurt, yeah

Is Tucker Carlson a Traitor?

How well does Tucker Carlson live up to the standards of "Truth, Justice, and the American Way".This is of course from the lines repeated at the beginning of every episode of the daily Adventures of Superman TV show when I was a child.

Superman was created by Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster, children of Jewish immigrants, as a retelling for modern times of the Moses story.  A baby was placed by his parents in a basket (rocket) and sent off for his safety.  His birth name for goodness sake is Kal- El.

I won't get into Tucker Carlson's shameful attitudes about Truth and Justice.  But if he is against the American Way, then he is by definition a Traitor to America.

The fact is that the American Way is to stand with the Jewish President of a country who is opposing an unJust invasion of his Country because of unTruths.  ( Ukrainians like Zelensky are Nazis?  Really? Really?)

If Tucker Carlson is against the American Way, then he is a traitor in my, and many, eyes.

I have written to YouTube TV, my streaming service, because while I can boycott the products of companies who advertise on Tucker Carlson's show, I know that my YouTube TV subscription dollars go to keeping this filth on the air.  While I am delighted that YouTube TV carries ESPN, Nickelodeon, and TMC, I regret that my subscription is supporting Tucker Carlson on Fox News.

Tucker Carlson is against the American Way, which makes him a traitor to Americans like me.

Sanctions

Dazed and Confused

You hurt and abuse,
Tellin' all of your lies
Run 'round, sweet baby, lord, how they hypnotize
Sweet little baby, I don't know where you been
Gonna love you, baby, here I come again

So who is confused about strategy and tactics?

Sanctions have been proposed by President Biden as a strategy for dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Some in the GOP have complained that sanctions are weak and ineffective.  Those individuals  are confusing strategy with tactics.  Are sanctions an effective tactic? No, but they were never claimed to be.

Those individuals opposing sanctions as ineffective must also be fans of Pyrrhic victories.  In case you have forgotten, a Pyrrhic victory is one where the victory, and the tactics used to achieve that victory, work against a winning strategy.  E.g. you won the battle, but lost the war.  They might make the tacticians who achieved that victory proud of themselves.  But a mid-season sports victory that came at the cost of injuring the team's star player almost always guarantees a losing season.  A gambler who won $100,000 in a game, but has lost $400,000 over the last year is still a loser.  The winner of an auction who paid more than the asset is worth will probably be bankrupt in the long run.  Or particularly germane to current events… the French Invasion of Russia in 1812 and the taking of Moscow.  It should be particularly fitting to listen to Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture today, and everyday, until the Russian invasion of the Ukraine becomes the latest example of a Pyrrhic victory.  Kind of makes you want to listen again on Election day, and when the Truth Social app crashes and burns as well!  I’d rather be weak than dazed and confused!

Inflation IV

 

Subterranean Homesick Blues

Look out kid, don't matter what you did
Walk on your tiptoes, don’t tie no bows
Better stay away from those that carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose, watch the plainclothes
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

But you do need to know that there IS a difference between
short term weather
and
long term climate.

If there is a fixed amount of money, and money is the medium of exchange in trade, then all trading must stop if one group of players has all of the money.  On the other hand, if society wishes trade to continue, then it must increase the supply of money to allow trade. 

The first situation describes when the supply of money is based on a fixed asset, e.g. gold or crypto currency ( e.g. Bitcoins will be eventually limited to 21 million).  When money is based on a fixed asset, it is said to be a commodity currency, such as the gold standard.  The second situation describes a fiat currency, where society creates money to accommodate trade. The first is the Chicago School, the second is  Keynesian. 

The United States Dollar was on the gold standard until 1933, when private ownership of gold was made illegal.  However gold still was the international trading currency.  After Bretton Woods, the United States Dollar became the international trading currency backed by gold.  Predictably, international players accumulated more and more dollars, and potentially gold, until the Nixon Shock of 1971.  This was followed by an economic readjustment, as the supply and demand curves had to readjust to this new reality.  Since that time, while long term inflation has been persistent, short term corrections between the supply and demand curves have been minimal.

Calls to go to a commodity currency, where that is backed by gold, or by crypto currency, appears to risk subjecting the economy to major corrections in the supply and demand curves.  Overall, the markets have been generally stable after they recovered from the Nixon Shock. But long term inflation has increased because the  international trading currency was a domestic fiat currency which was not growing to account for international trade ( the Triffin Dilemma) .

The year to year increase in the 2022 CPI was 4.4%.  The December 2020 to December 2021 increase was 7%, but 4.4% is based on the average of monthly CPI weighted by the days in each month.  The 7% increase is only relative to the lower demand in December 2020.  Given that the long term inflation has been suggested to be 4%, this change in short term inflation might not be cause for alarm. The increase in CPI seemed to begin in March of 2020, which is also the start of the COVID shutdown. Making policy decisions based on a comparison of today with COVID conditions would appear to be unwise.  It is like declaring that a drought is over based on a comparison of today’s rainfall with that during of the worst of the  drought.  The short term change is nice to know, but it is the change over the long term that is important.

Fraternities

 

La Marseillaise

Aux armes, citoyens

Formez vos bataillons

Marchons, marchons!

Qu’un sang impur

Abreuve nos sillons!

Vive L' Liberté! Vive L'Égalité! Vive L' Fraternité!

Fraternities are a way to have a tribe (i.e. a fraternity) within a tribe (i.e. a university).  The issue is whether the large tribe has a selection standard with which the smaller tribe agrees.  The selection criteria in European Universities was either already class based (e.g. Oxford, Cambridge, Eton, the “right” schools, etc.), or was merit based. ( e.g. the Sorbonne, Bologna, Copenhagen, etc.).  In many cases there are already colleges (schools, houses) within a university, so the need to join a smaller tribe is already provided.  Pembroke College is within Cambridge University.  You apply to Cambridge.  You are assigned to Pembroke.  Harry Potter applied to Hogwarts. Once at Hogwarts, he was sorted into Gryffindor House.

Joining a tribe is a perfectly natural and justifiable instinct ( “there is safety in numbers”).  Excluding members from your tribe on prejudice, is not a good thing.  ( e.g. Jim Crow laws, "No Irish  need apply").  The good purpose of a fraternity is such that when you travel to other places you can identify someone in your tribe ( e.g. same Fraternity, different chapter house). But fraternities are also exclusive (e.g. a potential member, a pledge, can be blackballed.)

In the European country with which the US is most familiar, the United Kingdom, there was already a very definite class system (“Upstairs, Downstairs”).  There was no need to exclude "lower" classes from the “right” schools, since  those schools were only for the “upper” classes anyway. The university was already class‑based, or in other countries where the society has no classes, there was no need to adopt an exclusive class structure within a university. This is not the case in the U.S.  Exclusive schools admit people who are not in your class (e.g. I am an Irish-Polish, Catholic, working-class graduate of an Ivy League university).  The alternative is to form fraternities, i.e. tribes, within those colleges where you can exclude the “wrong” people from your tribe.  Some that are excluded, may seek to form their own fraternities where they, and others like them, can be accepted, while others view this exclusion itself as folly ( “I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.”- Groucho Marx.)

Can fraternities do good? Absolutely.  Is there a benefit of joining with others? Absolutely.  Can fraternities exclude people? Yes, and that is their cost.  Members have to decide for themselves whether the benefits outweigh the costs. Fraternities don’t exist in European Universities because there was no need for Fraternities.

2022 Winter Olympics

 

The Way We Were

Memories
Light the corners of my mind
Misty watercolor memories
Of the way we were

What memories should we have of the 2022 Winter Olympics?

You can say that this is the Winter Olympics of Kamila Valieva, of Mikaela Shiffrin, of Eileen Gu, etc.  I will prefer to think of this as the Olympics of Finland's Iivo Niskanen, the Netherland’s Kai Verbij, and the United States’ Elana Meyers Taylor.

·       Kamila Valieva is the poster child for doping and cheating in sports.  But she is just that, a child.  She may have taken illegal drugs but she was told to take those illegal drugs by the adults who were responsible for her.  Blaming her is blaming the victim.

·       Mikaela Shiffrin might not have won any Gold Medals for the US at this Olympics but she did win Gold Medals in two previous Olympics, is the youngest winner of an Alpine skiing Olympic medal for the US, and is tied for the most Alpine skiing Olympic medals for a US team. In World Championships, she is the most decorated American alpine skier in history, having won the most medals overall, eleven,  a record six of them gold.  She was after all skiing for herself.  As an American, I can take vicarious thrills in her victories, but I can not blame her for not giving me more vicarious thrills.

·       Ailing (Eileen) Gu was raised in the US, will attend Stanford University, and might have closer ties with the US but chose to compete for China.  As Americans, we can no more “strip” China of those medals, unless we are also willing to give  Kaillie Humphries’ Gold Medal in the Women's Monobob to Canada, because Kaillie changed her citizenship from Canadian to the United States because of a dispute with her coach.

Instead can we celebrate-

·       Finland’s IIvo Niskanen who won a Gold Medal, in the Men's Cross-country Skiing 15km and instead of going off to celebrate or recover, he patiently waited 20 minutes for every one of the 94 competitors behind him to complete the race.

·       The Netherland’s Kai Verbij who backed off on the final crossover straight in his Speed Skating run, knowing he didn't have quite enough speed to get in front of Canada's Laurent Dubreuil.  Rather than a risk a collision, Verbij popped out of his racing crouch and slowed so he stayed clear of Dubreuil, who zipped away to capture the silver medal.

·       Elena Taylor who won the Silver Medal in the Women's Monobob and the Bronze Medal in the Two Woman Bobsled and will proudly carry the flag for the US during the closing ceremonies.  Despite the shabby treatment of past minority Olympians, such as Jesse Owens, Jim Thorpe, and Duke Kahanamoku, she clearly does not hold a grudge, for which this American is delighted.  And she recently survived COVID and an emergency C section to boot.

The Olympics should not be about remembering the way we were, but striving for the way we would like to be.

 

Inflation Predictions

Revolution

Never make a politician grant you a favor (Doo-doo-doo-doo)
They will always want to control you forever, eh! (Forever, forever)
So if a fire make it burn (make it burn, make it burn)
And if a blood make ya run (make ya run, run, run)
Rasta de 'pon top, can't you see? (Doo-doo-doo-doo)
So you can't predict the flop eh-eh! (Doo-doo-doo-doo)

What can you predict?

NPR’s Planet Money recently aired an episode titled Predictions: Inflation.  These predictions might have been easier if it was recognized that the Consumer Price Index is a combination of long term inflation, which is related to the US  money supply, (the medium of exchange between buyers and suppliers), and short term inflation, which is related to changes in the demand (buyer) and supply curves. If the proposed equations of long term inflation is removed, the changes in inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) show a much different picture.

Viewed in this manner, changes in price appear much more stable than would otherwise be expected.  Taking a deep breath when viewing year to year changes in prices would appear to be warranted.  Most of what is called inflation may be long term inflation caused by the money supply, not by changes in the supply and demand curves. Making predictions about the short term changes in CPI could  be a lot easier if we realize that there is also a long term component.

Blame

 

The Name Game

Billy, Billy, bo-gil-ly, bo-na-na
Fanna, fo-fil-ly,
Fee fi mo-mil-ly, Billy!

The Name game is harmless fun.  Can we say the same about the Blame game?

When  you try to assess blame you are looking only at the past.  You look at a harmful act that has already occurred and try to assign responsibility for that harm.  But if those harmful actions were random, or you can not determine the cause of the harm, it may be tempting to assign blame to an individual.  But assigning blame to individuals who are not responsible for that action can’t prevent those harmful actions from occurring again.  If an investigation does correctly assess blame, and that blame is criminal, penalties can be  imposed to prevent that action from occurring again or make the individual who is responsible mitigate that harm.  Either the individuals who are responsible can be prevented from undertaking take that harmful action again, or those who might have considered such an action are deterred from that harmful action because the costs of that action outweigh the benefits.

But if those individuals are not responsible, punishing those individuals serves no purpose. It does nothing to  prevent the action from happening again.  The purpose of an investigation should be to prevent that action from occurring again.  If you assign blame incorrectly and punish the wrong individuals, those resources can not go into actually identifying the correct cause and possibly preventing such an action from ever occurring again.  Blaming the right person only has a benefit if it deters the harm attributable to that person in the future.  Blaming the wrong person can not deter harm in the future. Doing the right thing in response to a tragedy may be commendable, however doing the wrong thing is worse than doing nothing at all. Finding out correctly who, or what, is responsible is productive.  Simply assigning blame, particularly if that blame is assigned incorrectly, is not.

Money

 

Money (That's What I Want)

The best things in life are free
But you can keep them for the birds and bees
Now give me money, (That's what I want)
That's what I want
(That's what I want)

But what is money?

I have blogged about this before, but it is  important enough to do it again.  Money is the medium of exchange in trades.  We rely on our sovereign to vouch for that medium.  We can agree that precious metals are a medium of exchange in each trade because they have value and they can be exchanged for other goods.  The problem is that the weight of those precious metals is not easily determined (who carries a scale around with them?) and who can be sure that that precious metal is what it is claimed to be (iron pyrite anyone?).  The solution was that coins were minted by the sovereign who attested that the coin was indeed what you expected, and was a weight of which you could be certain.

It is no accident that, in the United Kingdom the unit of money is the Pound Sterling (silver).  The US Dollar is named after the Spanish Dollar, a coin of sterling silver.  It was common to break this coin into eight pieces (pieces of eight) and to use these bits as a medium of exchange ( a shave and a haircut, two bits,  2/8th of a dollar, one quarter).  The accepted precious metal became to be gold as governments shifted away from silver ( “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold"- William Jennings Bryan).

The key to precious metals as a medium of exchange is that  they are limited and not easily created.  Alchemists spent much in resources in trying to turn lead into gold.  The search for precious metals, especially gold, drove much of the frenzy in exploring the Americas.  The forced removal of Native Americans from their ancestral lands followed the gold rush in the Carolinas in 1799 ( the Trail of Tears) and the Gold Rush in the Black Hills of the Dakotas in 1874 ( the infamous Custer expedition).  Ironically the relocation to what was long called Indian Territory, and is now called Oklahoma,  was followed by the discovery of oil there. (Black Gold.  The moral arc of the universe is long but it bends towards justice, indeed! ) The use of precious metals as currency can still be seen in today’s crypto currency.  Bitcoins have the value that they do because like gold, they are rare and there is a limited number (21 million) that can be created. The creation of new Bitcoins is called “mining:”

Precious metals are heavy, hard to weigh, hard to protect, etc.  As a result, governments’ printed paper currency that was backed by precious metals.  This led to the “discovery” that currency had value merely because the Nation said that it had value.  ( the Native Americans that had long used wampum must have FOTFLTAO when the Great White Fathers “discovered” this.) The United States went off the Gold Standard in the 1930s, but gold was still used as a medium of international trade until the Bretton Woods Conference, in 1944, where the US Dollar at a fixed price of gold, became the international trading currency.  This was maintained until the Nixon Shock, in 1971, when the US Dollar in international trade was no longer backed by gold.

This led to a predictable response by the international holders of those US dollars.  The international holders of those dollars used their dollars to bid up the price of physical goods.  The result was the spike in inflation of the 1970s.  The Federal Reserve banks, founded in 1914, were charged with maintaining a stable economy in the United States.  That they did this admirably is seen in the fact that the Consumer Price Index, CPI,  between 1913 and 1944, was virtually flat, despite economic cycles, the Great Depression and two World Wars during this period.   

Since that time the Consumer Price index has not been flat.  11-year-old me mourned when my beloved comic books increased in price from 10 cents to 12 cents in 1962.  My first year at Brown University in 1969 was less than $4000 for room board and turion.  I graduated with a grand total of $1,600 in student loans.  When my son was ready to go two days a week for a few hours a day to nursery school in 1987, it cost more for his tuition than my first year of college!

It would be tempting to say that inflation has been simple and continuous, but that is not well correlated  with the observed Consumer Price Index.  It would be tempting to say that inflation is compound and continuous, but that also does not correlate well with observations.  What does correlate well is a simple linear equation with two discontinuities which happened in 1944, the year of Bretton Woods, and 1971, the year of the Nixon Shock.  It is suggested that these years are not an accident.

Before Bretton Woods, the US Dollar was used primarily for domestic trade. The Federal Reserve did an admirable job of seeing that the supply of money was consistent with the economy.  After Bretton Woods, despite John Maynard Keynes' suggestion that the Bancor be used for international trade, the United States Dollar backed by gold was the currency used in international trade, with results that were predictable (at least to economist Robert Triffin).  Eventually international trade grew to such an extent, that the Nixon Shock of 1971 occurred, with predictable results.

The CPI has increased steadily since that time.  It would appear that the growth in international trade has not been accounted for by the Federal Reserve, and since the US Dollar is still a major international trading currency, the Federal Reserve apparently grew the US money consistent with the growth in the US economy, but did not grow the US currency consistent with the growth in international trading. Today’s current persistent inflation is the result.

Kamila Valieva

 

Children Will Listen

Guide them along the way,
Children will glisten
Children will look to you for which way to turn
To learn what to be
Careful before you say, listen to me.
Children will listen.

Blaming the victim does not punish a crime.  Punishing the crime punishes the crime.

Is there a Russian team at the Winter Olympics or are there athletes at the Winter Olympics that happen to be Russian?  Based on the Parade of Nations, the playing of the National Anthem of the Gold Medal Winner, the display of the National flags for the Gold, Silver and Bronze medals on the podium, and the display of National flags on the uniforms of the athletes, etc., it would appear that Nations are at the Winter Olympics.  At least one Nation appears to have violated the rules of the Olympics and in doing so has placed its athletes in jeopardy.   If the International Olympic Committee cared about those athletes, it would not allow them to be placed in jeopardy.

It seems merciful not to penalize athletes for violations of their country.  But allowing those athletes to compete under these circumstances is not mercy for those athletes, it is being complicit in jeopardizing their well being.  Placing the onus on other athletes, who violated no rules and yet finish behind those athletes who have been found to violate Olympic rules, is unfair to those other athletes.  If the Olympics seeks to promote good sportsmanship, how is disputing the awarding of medals to those who finished above you ever promoting good sportsmanship?

Was the athlete involved in the  violation of Olympic rules a minor?  Absolutely, but that does not change the truth that the rules were violated.  Could a minor have violated those rules? Not according to the law.  Should the adults who violated those rules be punished? Absolutely.  But if child abuse occurs, is it fair to turn give the child back to the abuser, even if punishing the abuser will deprive the child of a place the child wishes to be.

An alternative, not allowing minors to compete at the Olympics, is unfair to those minors, those Nations, and the adults in those Nations who have not violated the rules.  It is throwing out the baby  with the bath water.  Child abuse might occur in families.  The solution should not be to remove all children from their families.  But if the adults found guilty of child abuse are to be punished, every step should be taken to make it clear that punishing the abuser is not also punishing the child.  Saying that Kamila Valieva willing took Trimetazidine is blaming the victim in a child abuse case.  Can the abuser be punished without punishing the victim?  If it means returning the victim back to the abuser and requiring non victims to be poor sports, it doesn’t seem that justice has been served. Collateral damage is still damage. Saying that collateral damage should be ignored does not make that damage go away.

 

An Iterative Process

Try Again

If at first you don't succeed (first you don't succeed),

Dust yourself off, and try again

You can dust it off and try again, try again

'Cause if at first you don't succeed (first you don't succeed),

You can dust it off, and try again

Dust yourself off and try again, try again

In mathematics, trying again is called iterating.

The User Equilibrium assignment in Travel Demand Models is an iterative process.  Those iterations  are of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm in order to compute an equilibrium volume.  Between iterations, the IMPEDANCE is updated.  NO other attributes,  especially capacity, should be changed until the equilibrium process is completed.  Changing the formula for impedance, or any link attributes, except the volume, during this process violates the assumptions of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm that is being used.

This does not mean that the initial link capacities are absolutely correct.  Capacities on links are most often based on characteristics of the design for that link, e.g. lane width.  However there are circumstances where the capacity depends  not only on the design characteristics of the link, but on the volumes on this or other links. 

·    For example, the capacity of a link approaching a signalized intersection is a function of the green to Cycle Length, g/C, of that signal.  An initial assumption has to be made for the g/C ratio before the volumes are known, but technically the g/C ratio is a function of the approach volume on that link divided by the approach volumes of all links approaching that intstection.  Those volumes are precisely what is being computed in the assignment iterations.

·   Similarly, the capacity of truck climbing lanes depends on the truck percentage on that link as well as truck percentages of adjacent links.  These percentages will not be known until after the assignment iterations are complete.

This issue is not unique to assignment. It can occur whenever an iterative process is used.  Assumptions may be made in order to solve the process, but these assumptions may be inconsistent with the solution.  In fact the Travel Demand Modeling process often already has such a feedback loop .  In order to distribute and find the mode choice in creating a trip table, it is necessary to know the impedances, e.g. skim times, between zones for each mode, which are not really known until after that trip table is assigned.  A feedback loop uses the impedances based on the initial assignment to update the inputs to trip distribution and mode choice.

A similar process is proposed for assignment.  Assumptions are made for network link capacities in order to solve for volumes on that network.  After the assignment ( NOT DURING THE ASSIGNMENT), the capacities can be recomputed based on the volumes which were assigned.  If these capacities are significantly different than the capacities that were assumed before the assignment began, then the link capacities should be updated and a new assignment should begin. This process should continue until the capacities that were assumed as the input to the assignment are sufficiently consistent with the capacities computed from the volumes that are output from the assignment.

Time AND Reliabilty

How The Grinch  Stole Christmas

It came without ribbons, it came without tags.
It came without packages, boxes or bags.
Maybe Christmas doesn't come from a store.
Maybe Christmas (he thought) means a little bit more.

What if congested time in Travel Demand Models was a little bit more

Travel Demand Models that utilize the User Equilibrium assignment method proposed by Sparrow and Dafermos, use the Frank-Wolfe, F-W, algorithm to iteratively solve for this equilibrium. This requires the use of an impedance function.  The purpose of this impedance function is to recompute the impedance of links on paths between F-W iterations.  As implemented in Travel Demand Models, this impedance function is typically called the Volume Delay Function, VDF.  This function expresses impedance in units of time, but this time is more properly a measure of impedance, not observable times. The impedance function must have the volume for which equilibrium is being solved, as one of its independent variables.  The other variables may NOT change in value during F-W iterations. 

VDFs are typically expressed as  a function of volume to capacity ratios, v/c.  The Bureau of Public Roads, BPR, proposed an empirical impedance function which is based on v/c ratios, but the empirical observations were only for v/c ratios less than 1.2 and it was NEVER proposed that this equation be used for conditions with v/c ratios greater than 1.2.  Nonetheless, the BPR equation is the basis of the VDF that is recommended by the Travel Model Improvement Program, and is used for ALL v/c ratios.

Before proposing a theoretical impedance function, it is useful to identify those variables where the impedance will increase with increasing volumes.  The impedance function used in TDMs does not have to include all impedance choice variables, only those choice variables that cause a change in impedance with a change in volume.  If the impedance does not change with a choice variable, that variable  need not be included in the “impedance” function.  More properly what is needed is NOT an impedance function, but a CHANGE in impedance function.  This function need only consider how impedance changes in response to changes in volume.  For example, if the number of traffic control devices on a route is an impedance choice variable, the impedance associated with that choice variable does not change with a change in volumes, and that need not be considered in the UE.

The impedance as a function of volume DOES change as the reliability changes and as the travel time changes.  It is suggested that the “delay” in the BPR is more properly time, and reliability expressed in units of time, compared to the time and reliability with zero volume. If reliability and travel time are functions of volume, then a proposed equation of reliability, expressed in units of time, and a proposed equation of mean travel time, that change with increasing volume, is needed.  The function of reliability is a function of the mean time, but since the mean time is a function of volume, then reliability is, de facto, a function of volume.

It is suggested that the empirical BPR  already must include both mean time, and reliability expressed in units of time. Since the mean travel time is proposed to be a discontinuous function, any impedance function derived using mean travel time thus will also be a discontinuous function.

Azizi and Beagan  showed that route choice, was better correlated with the Planning Index, PI, than with the mean Travel Time Index, TTI.  It is proposed that the impedance function should be a function of PI. It was also shown that PI resulted in fewer assignment, F-W,  iterations before reaching essentially the same equilibrium volumes  It is proposed that the VDF should be PI and that it would include both time and reliability, e.g. be a Volume Delay AND Reliability Function, a VD(R)F.  The proposed theoretical VD(R)F,  based on the equations of travel time and reliability, is proposed to be

If v/c>=1  then TTI = FFS/TS*exp((v/c-1)/γ_T)) else TTI = 1/(γ_L*ln(1-v/c)/FFS+1))

VD(R)F =PI=TTI*(1+0.645*(1-exp(-(TTI-1)/.110171)))

where FFS, TS are link attributes similar to capacity (FFS is already coded on links),  and γ_T and γ_L are functions of FFS and TS, i.e. γ_T=( FFS-TS)/5.8 and γ_L =TS/5.8. The coefficients of reliability, δ and ε,  are shown using their theoretical values which are true for every link. 

This VD(R)F is very well correlated with the existing BPR equation for v/c ratios less than 1.2.  It is proposed that the existing validation of the VDF using the BPR formatted curve be used in this domain.  Figure 1 shows the traditional BPR curve with α =0.5 and β=4, (the original formulation of the BPR has α=0.15 but it also uses the practical capacity in the ratio.  The α =0.5 is the value consistent with the current convention of coding the physical capacity on links), and PI for a Free Flow Speed of 70 MPH, a Transition Speed of 60 MPH, and capacity of 2000 veh./hr./ln . The proposed interim BPR is the validated BPR for v/c less than 1.2,  and a simple queuing equation rotated by an angle θ,,where α=sin(θ), after a transition at v/c=1.2. The queuing equation is also coordinate translated to move the origin from (0,0) to (1.2, 1+α*1.2^β). The congestion portion of the BPR equation, α *(v/c)^β,  is itself coordinate transformed from an origin of  (0,0) to an origin of  (0,1). The proposed interim BPR is

1+α *(v/c)^β                               for v/c ≤ 1.2

and

1+α*(v/c-1.2)+α*1.2^β                for v/c > 1.2

Figure 1 Various Impedance Functions

Traffic Flow

 

Row, Row, RowYour Boat

Row, row, row your boat
Gently down the stream
Merrily merrily, merrily, merrily
Life is but a dream

Do vehicles in traffic behave like water in a stream?

This topic was rejected by a national publication, in part because one of the reviewers disagreed that people in traffic behave  like drops of water in a stream with laminar and turbulent flow. Oh, yeah?

Polynomial equations of speed/time have been proposed and are widely used. These equations describe the behavior of speed/time in two domains.  They require a Free Flow Speed, FFS, the speed at zero volume; the capacity, which separates the uncongested and congested domains; and either an explicit or implicit Transition Speed, TS. The two domains are:

·       Uncongested/ laminar flow, where the volume is less than the capacity, and

·       Congested/ turbulent flow, where the volume is greater than the capacity.

The polynomial equations adequately explain the speed/time in the uncongested domain.  Their use in the congested domain is always not necessary for Traffic Simulation models, but is necessary for Travel Demand Models.  The use of these polynomial equations creates some inconsistencies when they are used in the congested domain.  Polynomial  equations are smooth, i.e. have no discontinuities.  But the use of these equations creates a discontinuity at a v/c of 2.0, and requires the allowance of negative or imaginary, not real and positive, capacities. It is proposed that exponential equations of speed/time which are different in the uncongested and congested domains may be preferable. They will have a discontinuity at the transition between the two domains, but create no additional discontinuities and require only positive capacities.  These equations are:

Uncongested domain, v/c ≤1.

Vol/Cap = 1-exp (-1/γ_L *(FFS-Speed)))

Speed = f(Vol/Cap) = FFS*(γ_L/FFS*ln(1-Vol/Cap)+1)

where γ_L is a range ( transient) coefficient of the laminar equation.  If 99.97%, 3 Sigma, of the transition occurs during the range which is the absolute value of (FFS-TS), it has the value of

γ_L = -|FFS -TS|/ln(1-0.9997) = (FFS-TS)/5.8

This is a horizontal mirroring of the traditional exponential association of speed and a translation of the origin from (0,0) to an origin of (FFS,0), restated with v/c as a function of speed.

Congested domain, v/c >1

Vol/Cap = (1-γ_T*ln(1+(Speed-TS)/TS))

Speed=f(Vol/Cap) = TS*((1-exp((-(Vol/Cap-1))/γ_T ))+1)

where γ_T is a range ( transient) coefficient of the turbulent equation.  If 99.97%, 3 Sigma, of the transition occurs during the absolute value of the range (TS-0), it has the value of

γ_T = -|TS-0|/ln(1-0.997) =  TS/5.8

This is the traditional exponential association of transition and a translation of the origin from (0,0) to an origin of (TS,1), restated with v/c as a function of speed.

 

Reliability

 

Call Me Irresponsible

Call me irresponsible
Call me unreliable
Throw in undependable, too

So what is reliability?

My Blog, my rules.  This is longer and more technical than my typical postings, but so it goes.

The extra time added in order to be reliable is proposed to be

δ*(1-exp (-(TTI-1)/ϵ)))

This is an exponential association,  also known as a “limits to growth” or transitional, equation.  If the travel times are normally distributed, then 1+δ is the (one tailed) Z-Score of the percentile of reliability.  If reliability is 95%, then δ=.645

The value of ε is such that 99.99994%, 5 Sigma, of the transition must take place between TTI =1 and TTI=1+δ. The theoretical value for a 95% reliability is ε = 0.102815.

TTI, the Travel Time Index, is the Mean Time divided by the Free Flow Time, FFT. PI, the Planning Index is the Mean Time plus the Extra Time Added in order to be 95% reliable, divided by the Free Flow Time.  The Planning Index and the Travel Time Index is recorded for various metropolitan area and reported in the FHWA’s Urban Congestion Reports.  The Extra Time Added to be 95% reliable divided by the Mean Time is the Buffer Index, BI.  The relationship between the Planning Index, the Buffer Index, and the Travel Time Index is thus:

PI = TTI*(1+BI).

A non-linear regression of the 156 reported values in the FHWA's Urban Congestion Reports for the Third Quarter of the Federal Fiscal Year, the period including April, May, and June, for 2017, 2018 and 2019, yields the following result.  

PI = TTI*(1+δ*(1-exp(-(TTI-1)/ε))) 

with a coefficient of determination, r², of 0.964,

where:

δ          =0.602 +/-  0.001; and

ε           =0.113 +/-  0.007

One of the data points, which is an outlier to the regression, is for San Juan, Puerto Rico.  If the data for San Juan is removed, then the regression becomes

PI = TTI*(1+δ*(1-exp(-(TTI-1)/ε))) 

with a coefficient of determination, r^2, of 0.934,

where:

δ          =          0.621 +/-  0.008; and

ε          =          0.121 +/-  0.005.

Republicans III

 

Let’s Call The Whole Thing Off

So if I go for scallops and you go for lobsters,
So all right no contest we'll order lobster
For we know we need each other so we
Better call the calling off off,
Let's call the whole thing off.

There are differences, but the voters need both Democrats and Republicans.

The voters of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts have developed a novel approach to government.  The Massachusetts state Legislature has been controlled by the Democrats since 1959.  During this period, the Executive Branch has often been controlled by Republicans.  The current Governor is Republican Charles Baker.  I was appointed to a minor executive position by then Republican Governor William Weld.  Mitt Romney, the current Senator from Utah was once the Governor of Massachusetts. The Federal Transportation Building in Cambridge, MA bears the name of the late Republican Governor John Volpe.

This is because there a difference between justice and the law.  The voters of Massachusetts appear comfortable that the law should reflect those views advanced by the Democrats. However, the voters apparently also realize that the government will be comprised of corruptible humans and that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  A way to limit power and corruption is to promote small government.  When faced with the desire to have the government enact laws, the voters have said that they prefer Democrats.  When it comes to administer justice under those laws, they often prefer Republicans.  At least those Republicans who are not fixated  on advancing their own interests, excluding others from society, and believe in falsehoods.  A Republican party that represents society’s interests, seeks to include all individuals, and believes in the truth, but administers justice and enforces the law equitably is desired.

The current national Republican Party does not serve that role in Massachusetts.  That role is too important to be abandoned.

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson

 

I Second That Emotion

Oh, but if you feel like lovin' me
If you got the notion,
I second that emotion.
So, if you feel like giving me a lifetime of devotion
I second that emotion.

 

All in favor of the motion to appoint Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court, say aye.

The first federal black judge in Alabama , U. W. Clemon, is claimed to oppose Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson who is being considered as President Biden’s nominee for the Supreme Court.  "She refused to approve the settlement because in her view there were no common factual questions," Clemon wrote. Clemon is named as a counsel at the firm that argued the losing side of the Ross v. Lockheed settlement case.

You mean Judge Jackson based her decision on the facts instead of approving the progressive settlement with which I bet she emotionally approved.  If this is not a ringing endorsement for why Judge Jackson should be approved, I don’t know what is. A Judge who renders opinions on the facts instead of her emotions. What a concept!

Pornography in Schools

 

For What It’s Worth

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
Step out of line, the men come and take you away

If it wasn’t so scary it would be laughable.

Senator Ted “Cancun” Cruz, has said that "left-wing educators" are putting "explicit pornography in front of kids." However he would not give examples of what he means by pornography. 

The late Justice Potter Stewart famously said that “"I know it when I see it” in the SCOTUS decision  on obscenity in Jacobellis v. Ohio in 1964.  How do we know that it is explicit pornography, if we can’t see it.  It might indeed be pornography, but we won’t know until we see it.  Until we can see it, I would suggest Senator Cruz shut up and stop trying to scare people. 

Intellectual Property

 

All Across the Universe

Images of broken light which dance before me like a million eyes
They call me on and on across the universe
Thoughts meander like a restless wind inside a letterbox 
They tumble blindly as they make their way across the universe.

If a universe is created by a work of art, who owns that universe?

A role of the sovereign is to protect the property of his subjects, whether that property is physical or intellectual.  Economists distinguish property, goods, by the characteristics of being rival and/or exclusive.  Goods are rival if a price is charged.  (and do NOT confuse price with value.  Price is a way of allocating resources.   A good can be unpriced but have a value, e.g. fresh air. “The best things in life are free”.).  A good is exclusive if my using the good prevents you from using that same good (e.g. if I sit in a seat then you can’t sit in that same seat. However, if I see a movie, you can also see that same movie.  The seat in the movie theater is exclusive, but the movie on the screen is not).   Physical property is almost always rival and exclusive.  Intellectual property is typically non-exclusive. To ensure that intellectual property is created, the sovereign should encourage that a price can be collected for this property, i.e. make sure it is rival.   If there is no price, then the creator has no incentive to create that intellectual property.

The Constitution recognizes this.  Article One Sections 8 reads, ”To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries.”  Among the first laws passed by Congress were the establishment of copyrights for arts and patents for science.  ( A digression.  I long for the day when Arts and Sciences were one and the same.  I have a Bachelor of Science, which fortunately my college calls an Sc.B., and not the unfortunate initials which would otherwise distinguish it from a B.A.)

The key terms in the Constitution are “promote” and “limited time”.  The law has acknowledged that when a work is for hire, the inventor or author can be a corporation that employs that “work for hire”.  While a human author and inventor has a limited lifetime, a corporation  can live for much longer.  However the “limited times” applies for Writings and Discoveries whether the authors and inventors are humans or are corporations. 

The sovereign additionally can offer an opinion on the trustworthiness of goods that are being sold. In order to do this the sovereign can help enforce a trademark. When Congress passed the laws covering patents, it also extended it to cover Trademarks.  A Trademark is a separate issue that does not promote the arts or sciences, but addresses the Trust that can be placed in a good.  A Trademark confirms who produced the good. The  sovereign can also agree that the Trademark identifies the source of the good.  It is not a writing or a discovery. Unlike these, it does not exist for a limited time, but exists as long as it is enforced and used.  For example, the Lowenbrau Beer lion Trademark dates to 1383. 

The United States Patent and Trademark Office is an agency in the U.S. Department of Commerce that issues patents to inventors and businesses for their inventions, and trademark registration for product and intellectual property identification. The United States Copyright Office, a part of the Library of Congress, is the official U.S. government body that maintains records of copyright registration in the United States including a Copyright Catalog.

In the United States, a patent is valid for 20 years, if it is renewed during that period.  In the United States, a Trademark is valid potentially forever.  In the United States, copyrighted works published after 1923, but before 1978 are protected for 95 years from the date of publication. If the work was created, but not published, before 1978, the copyright lasts for the life of the author plus 70 years.

The fear is that Intellectual Property is fairly easy to copy and the benefit will accrue to the copy of the  Intellectual Property, especially since it is non-exclusive. If it is copied without a price being paid, there is no incentive for an artist to create that Intellectual Property.  The constitutional protections specifically mention authors and their writings.  At time of the drafting of the Constitution, the only works of art which could be easily copied were writings by authors.  Technology has changed since that time.  Many works of art can now be copied or photographed.  The creators of works of art now include photographers, movie directors, musical artists, etc. in addition to authors.  To promote the arts, protections are extended to their works. 

While 95 years is cited as the “limited time” for older works of art, it mentions the life of the author plus seventy years for works published after 1978.  If the “artist” is a corporation,  then its lifetime is not a reasonable limit.  Should the lifetime be the life of the “work for hire” artist employed by the corporation?  If the copyright is intended to cover the artist’s life plus the lifetime of his heirs, who are the heirs of a “work for hire”? It would appear that 95 years is long enough to cover the remainder of an artist’s life, plus the life of their heirs, if any.

But in addition to a work of art, the best storytellers create a universe in which their work of art is set.  That universe can be Disney, Marvel, the World of Harry Potter, etc.  That universe would not exist if the storyteller had not created it.  It would seem that the universe of the storyteller, whether it is the Star Trek, or Star Wars, that universe should also be protected.  The Intellectual Property which is that universe should be protected for as long as the work of art that was copyrighted. 

The problem is that while 95 years seems like a very long time, 95 years from the date that the Disney Universe was created with the first copyrighted appearance of Mickey Mouse in “Steamboat Willie” is 2023.  Ninety-five years from the  date that the Superman-DC universe was created with the first issue of Action Comics will be in 2033.   The ownership of those created universes is an immediate issue. 

It is suggested that these universes are a Trademark which could endure forever.  The trademark for Lowenbrau does not mean that there is no other beer, only that beer can not call itself Lowenbrau beer if it is not.  Characters in a fictional universe are already protected for 95 years from the date they first appeared in that universe.  Portions of the universe can be sold or licensed, as Sony Pictures has licensed Spider-man from Marvel.  That license presumably enters into the public domain 95 years after the first appearance of Spider-man in 1962. 

Will Disney seek to extend its copyright of Mickey Mouse for longer than 2023? Probably.  But just as Bayer has endured and sells Bayer Aspirin long after the patent for aspirin entered into the public domain, and there is still a market for coats with the Burberry plaid even though a plaid cannot be copyrighted, there will be value in a Trademark for Disneyland, long after Mickey Mouse has entered into the public domain.  The Disney Universe is a Trademark. If the House of Gucci has endured, then the House of Mouse will endure.