Discontinuity

 

Turn the World Around

We are of the spirit
Truly of the spirit
Only can the spirit
Turn the world around

There is no discontinuity in spirit!

A rebound, bounce, occurs at a physical discontinuity. The motion approaching the discontinuity is rotated and reflected at the discontinuity. When that motion is linear, then the rotated reflection will also be linear because a linear motion is symmetric with respect to the discontinuity. If the motion approaching the discontinuity is parabolic, which is also symmetric with respect to the discontinuity, then its rotated reflection will be parabolic. But a hyperbolic motion approaching a physical discontinuity is NOT reflected as a symmetrical hyperbolic motion in a rotated direction. It is NOT symmetric in real physical dimensions, but it may be  symmetric in the imaginary dimension.

A discontinuity need not be only physical. It can be an apparent, unseen, discontinuity. When approaching this unseen discontinuity, the motion can appear to be linear, but the rotated and reflected motion can appear to be parabolic. Rotation by π/2 is identical to the inverse of a function, and the inverse of a parabolic function, rotation by π/2, is undefined with a change of signs. A change of signs is required at a discontinuity from being observed to unobservable. This most probably indicates that the approaching motion is probably hyperbolic, and the rotated and reflected motion is also hyperbolic. Hyperbolic motion is NOT symmetrical in a real plane with respect to a discontinuity.

If the discontinuity is one of measurement, for example traffic departure volume approaching the capacity of a road, the departure volume may be hyperbolic with a discontinuity, but that is only because you are observing departure volume. Departure volume is equal to arrival volume before the discontinuity. If you could observe arrival volume, which can never be expected to be negative,  its motion might be expected to continue past the discontinuity.

That discontinuity can be expected to be the  separation between domains. For departure volumes it can be volume as uncongested traffic in the laminar domain before the discontinuity, which occurs at the transition speed and as congested traffic in the turbulent domain which occurs below the transition speed. Again linear and parabolic motion are symmetrical with respect to this transition speed, but hyperbolic motion is NOT symmetrical with respect to this real transition speed. The observations of traffic may appear linear before the discontinuity and may appear parabolic after the discontinuity. This has been interpreted by Van Aerde (Van Aerde, 1995) and others that the speed-volume curve is an asymmetrical parabola, which appears almost linear above the transition speed and more parabolic below the transition speed. It is instead proposed that the motion is hyperbolic which only appears linear in the uncongested traffic above the transition speed and appears parabolic in the congested traffic below the transition speed.

It is convenient to place the origin at the discontinuity which creates four domains, quadrants, with respect to the axis of observability ( the y-axis) and the  axis of transition ( the x- axis). These quadrants will be then:

1)     unobservable and laminar;

2)     observable and laminar;

3)     observable and turbulent; and

4)     unobservable and turbulent.

If an object approaches the discontinuity in quadrant 2), then it will rebound, leave the discontinuity, in quadrant 3) remaining in an observable quadrant. If an object approaches the discontinuity in quadrant 2) and passes THROUGH the discontinuity ( travelling across the axis of observability) it will still transition but it will leave in the unobservable quadrant 4).

Why would traffic, or any particle, have hyperbolic motion? If the geodesic is on a flat surface, then the object will not leave that geodesic unless it is acted upon by a force. If that particle is on a hyperbolic surface, the geodesic will be hyperbolic and no force is required for an object to change that hyperbolic, exponential, motion. Thus vehicles in traffic or any particle, in the absence of force, might be expected to have hyperbolic motion if the shape of the surface on which it is traveling is hyperbolic.

This has implications for traffic engineering. A speed-volume curve can be expected to have a discontinuity at its capacity. In travel demand modeling, the Volume Delay Function, VDF, appears to include both time and reliability (expressed as a time). (Azizi & Beagan, 2022) . The VDF arguably has three periods governed by the discontinuity of time and when the reliability budget has been exhausted. This means that from a volume to capacity ratio, v/c, from  0 to 1, the volume will be less than the discontinuity at the capacity and the reliability budget has not been exhausted. From a v/c of 1 to a v/c of 1.216,  the volume has passed through the  discontinuity, but  the reliability time budget has not been exhausted. For volumes above a v/c ratio of 1.216, the volume discontinuity has been passed and the reliability time budget has been exhausted.

This also has implications for the overflow delay at an intersection because delay, which is measurement of time, and it is the inverse of speed. This has traditionally been solved as a rotation of a domain with a random departure queue and a constant flat peak arrival volumes to a deterministic queuing departure. (Hurdle, 1984).  Instead, if a transition at a discontinuity is assumed, there need be no restriction on arrival volumes while preserving random departures and deterministic departures.

This discontinuity is suggested to also appear in other situations where an observable non‑physical  discontinuity exists, such as in fluid dynamics and its separation of regular laminar fluid flow from white water, turbulent flow. If particles travel on geodesics on a hyperbolic surface rather than geodesics on a flat surface, what is perceived as the force of gravity on a flat surface might instead be motion without a force, and there thus need be only three fundamental (the electrical, the strong nuclear, and the weak nuclear) forces with gravity as only an apparent force, similar to centrifugal force resulting from motion on the hyperbolic surface.

The solution to the Pythagoras’ Theorem for a triangle would be different on a curved hyperbolic surface than on a flat Euclidean surface. This new solution would be c=ln(0±2*cosh(√(a²+b²))). This would be virtually indistinguishable from the traditional solution for Pythagoras‘ Theorem when the distances involved are far less than 5/6 times the size of the observable universe. In other words, the universe would be locally flat, but universally hyperbolic. The r^th moment of a mean would not be 0 for odd powers and highly negative for even powers, but would be  0 for all powers of r. The Standard Deviation would not require Bessel’s Adjustment of n/(n-1). The relativistic dilation factor, the Lorentz Transform, would be ln(0±2*cosh(√(1-v²/c²))). The observable universe would not be flat but might be only one sheet of a two‑sheeted hyperboloid where its two sheets intersect at the origin, the Big Bang. That the observable universe is hyperbolic was proposed by Mabkhout (Mabkhout, 2012), in which he also proposes that if Einstein’s tensors are solved for a hyperbolic surface, Dark Energy and Dark Matter are not required.

It is suggested that Euler’s Formula is because a complex number is being transformed from cylindrical coordinates to Cartesian coordinates, and that reality is a surface intersecting the origin of that cylindrical volume formed by the three dimensions of space, time and imagination where the coefficient of imagination is zero, r*e^ix=r*cos(x)+r*i*sin (x). This can be restated narratively as reality is the negative sheet of a two-sheeted hyperboloid, having a negative coefficient, with the other sheet being positive, and has a zero coefficient of the imaginary axis, i.e., r*e^iπ=-r +0²i, because sin(π)=0 and cos(π)=-1.

It is proposed that the apparent discontinuity is only an illusion which comes from the intersection of tanh(x-μ) and ‑tanh(x-x₀-μ), both where x>x₀, and x₀ is -CAP, capacity, for traffic.  The discontinuity appears at zero, but that is only because the x coordinate axis has been translated.  The actual equations, if the translation is removed, are  tanh(x), x>0 and ‑tanh(x-x₀), x>0. If laminar real behavior continues THROUGH the discontinuity, then it follows ‑tanh(x-x₀) where x is always positive.

In each case, the amplitude, A, is 2. Given that σ²=½A²,this means the variance, σ², is 1. This  means that the Standard Deviation, σ, the square root of the variance, is √(2/2), 1, if the imaginary dimension is NOT considered.  But since tanh repeats only in imaginary planes, the standard deviation considering the imaginary axis should be ln(2*cosh(√(2/2)), 1.058

Assuming that the mean is only zero leads to making the mistake that luck must be destiny.  Assuming that the absolute has no error and thus its Standard Deviation, SD, and variance must be zero is confusing the limit of error, Standard Error, SE=SD/√n where n→∞, with deviation. The discontinuity shows that variance is not equal to zero AND the applicable mean is not equal to zero.

References

Azizi, L., & Beagan, D. (2022, January). Inclusion of Reliability in the Volume Delay Function. Poster Presented at Annual TRB Meeting.

Hurdle, V. F. (1984). Signalized intersection delay models–a primer for the uninitiated. Transportation Research Record, 971(112), 89.

Mabkhout, S. (2012). The infinite distance horizon and the hyperbolic inflation in the hyperbolic universe. Phys. Essays, 25(1), p.112.

Van Aerde, M. (1995). A single regime speed-flow-density relationship for freeways and arterials. Washington D. C.,: Presented at the 74th TRB Annual Meeting,.

 

 

Pardon Me!

 

Goin’ Home

I'm goin' home, my baby
I'm goin' home, to see my baby
Goin' home, my baby
Gonna see my baby, see my baby fine
Take my baby, take my baby mine
Gonna tell your mama how good that love of ours 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee20LF-bY6U

And let’s get it correct this time.

In 1968, the Democratic party had a presidential nominating convention in Chicago, the incumbent President, Lyndon Johnson, chose not to run. His Vice President, Hubert Humphrey,  was forced to endure a brutal primary season that divided the party, the delegates, and the country. That incumbent Vice President selected as his running mate Senator Muskie and lost the election to the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon. In 1972, the year of Watergate, the Democratic nominee for president was George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey declined to serve as his running mate. Richard Nixon won a virtually unprecedented percentage of the electoral vote. (Prompting the “Don’t Blame Me I’m from Massachusetts” bumper stickers when Richard “I am not a crook” was proven to be a liar). While Richard Nixon was pardoned by Gerald Ford, his second Vice President, (let’s not forget that Spiro Agnew, Nixon’s first vice President, had to resign because he was caught accepting bribes). You need not accept a pardon if you are innocent. He was saved from being the worst President in modern times by Donald Trump, a convicted felon, an adjudicated rapist, a liar, and a fraudster.

Thus it is fitting that the current incumbent present has chosen not to seek reelection. And that the incumbent Vice President will also be selected as the Democratic nominee of President at a return to a national convention in Chicago. Given that Chicago in 1968 was vital to the election of Richard Nixon, it is fitting that Chicago in 2024 will also be pivotal to the defeat of Donald Trump. Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz was correct. There is NO place like home.

Nash Equilibriums II

 

Auld Lang Syne

For auld lang syne, my dear
For auld lang syne
We'll take a cup of kindness yet
For auld lang syne.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxNXtjGY_Us

To Joe Biden, the Richest Man in town!

During yesterday’s address by President Biden from the Oval Office, I could not get the ending to It’s A Wonderful Life out of my head.  I was watching it unfold in real time.  Mathematician John Nash defined a User Optimal solution, of doing the best for yourself as described by Adam Smith, as incomplete.  He did not say, but the System Optimal solution, of doing the best for the common good as described by Karl Marx, is also incomplete.  In order for individual users to act as a system they should follow neither a User Optimal nor a System Optimal solution.  Instead they should follow a solution which he described as the best for the user AND the best for the common good. This is nothing new.  The author T.H. White would describe King Arthur’s  Round Table as “Might For Right, not Might Makes Right”.  Knute  Rockne might describe it as “Taking one for the Team.”  Charles Dicken would describe it as “A far, far better thing.”  The mathematical solution has been given the name as a Nash Equilibrium.  I would like to propose that after yesterday’s speech it be henceforth be described as a Biden Equilibrium.  Let’s raise a toast to Joe Biden, a far greater President than we might have ever realized. Thank you Joe, for Making America Great Again, by looking ahead.  And with Kamala, we are NOT going back!

Pretending

 

California Dreamin’

Stopped into a church
I passed along the way
Well, I got down on my knees
And I pretend to pray
You know the preacher like the cold
He knows I'm gonna stay
California dreamin'
On such a winter's day 

When is pretending passing? 

There is a nasty phrase “passing for white”’.  It refers to someone who is not white, but is intentionally passing for white because those people have privileges.  It generally is done by someone whose features are mostly viewed as “white”.  Passing is done intentionally, and there are consequences upon being discovered.  But at least passing was done intentionally.  Accepting privileges because people have made a mistake as to your identity is something of which I am guilty.  Unintentionally obtaining privileges is probably even worse than intentionally obtaining those same privileges. 

My last name is Beagan, produced BEE- Gan.  During the time in which I was a member of a Massachusetts Republican administration, I let it be pronounced  as RAY-Gan, after the Republican President, even though I secretly despise Ronald Reagan.  During that same time I accepted my colleagues mocking undocumented immigrants, although my maternal grandparents were immigrants from Poland and my paternal great-grandparents were immigrants from Ireland.  My paternal grandfather was even an undocumented illegal alien from Canada pretending to have been born in the United States.  And while my Irish ancestors might have spoken English, my maternal grandparents never learned to speak English.  But my last name is taken to be as American as apple pie. 

I am a straight, cis, male. But my brother, the best man at my wedding and the godfather of my eldest son, is gay. Some of my favorite co-workers are transgender.  The persons I most admire are female.  I am accepted by Christian Nationalists because I am Catholic, but I happily celebrate Rosh Hashanah, and Ramadan.  I was a manager and have been sued by union workers, but my father was a member of the Steel Workers Union and my sympathies are mostly with laborers.  I have lacked the courage to correct those who grant me privileges that I know that they do not extend to others.  By accepting those privileges I am accepting that they can be denied to others.  I have found that pretending by omission is worse than intentionally passing, it certainly is more cowardly.

 

Kamala Harris

 

Into The West

And all will turn
To silver glass
A light on the water
Grey ships pass
Into the West

JD Vance is a LOTR fan?

One of the most disturbing images that came out of the Republican National convention was JD Vance in Gandalf’s’ hat blowing smoke rings like a hobbit.  This was an illustration in a story supposedly because JD Vance is a Lord of The Rings, LOTR, fan.  Challenge accepted, fan boy to fan boy.  Sir, I have read LOTR many times and you, sir, are no Gandalf or Frodo.  If you appear to be anyone it is Denethor the fallen Steward of Gondor; Saruman of Many Colors, Grima Wormtongue, or any of the anti-heroes who were deceived into thinking that they alone could fix things.  Time that the voters do a little Scouring of the Shire ourselves.

My favorite characters in the LOTR embody Truth (Treebeard), Justice (Samwise Gamgee) and the American Way of inclusion (the shieldmaiden Eowyn).  In fact if there is an embodiment of a LOTR character in the 2024 presidential campaign my vote is for Kamala Harris.  When the old King of Rohan,  Theoden, is struck down by the Lord of the Nazguls in battle, she heroically defends him in her guise as a simple soldier.  When the Lord of the Nazgul says that “No man can kill him” and is about to choke her, she takes off her helmet and reveals that “she is no man” as she slays him.  https://youtu.be/8Q_HM5EMX6E?si=I4IehTWOs8Xd1Tk8

LFG Kamala.

Joe Biden

 

Hey, Joe

Hey, Joe
Where you gonna run to now? Where you gonna run to?
Hey Joe, I said
Where you gonna run to now? Where you, where you gonna go?

Wherever you go, or whatever you do, thank you Joe!

President Joseph Biden shocked the political world when he walked away from his campaign for re-election. He thus deprived the voters of saying a resounding thank you for all that he has done. Does he deserve to be Grandpa Joe? Absolutely. He has more than earned all that and much, much more. Contrast this behavior with that of January 6^th , 2021. Joe Biden willingly gave up re-election to the office of President for the good of the country he loves. God bless you, Joe. To Sir with Love.

And Donald Trump has the nerve to say that the Republican Party should be reimbursed for fraud for all of its campaigning against President Biden. And here I thought given all of Donald Trump’s criminal and civil court cases that  understood all about fraud by now. Maybe DJT should listen instead of sleeping in court?

Vice President

 

Simply The Best

You're simply the best
Better than all the rest
Better than anyone
Anyone I've ever met

How about simply the worst?

Donald Trump has done it again. Of all of the possible candidates of those who might have been selected as his running mate, he has picked the worst one. It is perhaps not surprising. Marco Rubio and Doug Burnham had the possibility of pulling a Mike Pence on Donald Trump and putting the constitution above Trump’s interest. No such worries with J.D. Vance.  He will put personal ambition over constitutional duty every single time. But if I were Donald Trump, I would use taste testers before accepting any food or drink from Senator Vance. He has to be very careful that J.D. Vance’s personal ambition does not overcome any loyalty to his President. The Vice President is only a heartbeat away from the Presidency, which does not speak very well for Donald Trump’s heart, if he has one.

Good Intentions

 

Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood

Baby, can you understand me now?
Sometimes I get a little mad
Don't you know, no one alive can always be an angel
When things go wrong, I seem to go bad
 I'm just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don't let me be misunderstood 

The problem is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions! 

If you could change one historical event in your lifetime, what would it be? Mine would be Gerald Ford’s pardoning of Richard Nixon. Do I believe that the pardon was done with the best of intentions.  It was Gerald Ford after all, and I personally believe that he had ONLY good intentions. The spectacle of a criminal trial would be devastating to everyone in the  United States. Take the fascination with the  OJ Simpson trial and then go nuclear. That is just the general public who are not invested in the outcome of the trial. The fight put up by Richard Nixon and his allies would have also been epic, costly, and damaging. A consequence of the pardon is that the spectacle and fight did not take place. However it also meant that crimes committed by a President while in power were never tried and possibly punished. If there was no pardon of Richard Nixon, then maybe there would have been no Ronald Reagan presidency, no George Bush presidency, no Donald Trump presidency, and no partisan Supreme Court to grant an opinion of presidential immunity to Donald Trump. It might have been with good intentions at the time, but 50 years later, boy was it misunderstood.

Should Joe Biden Drop Out?

Shut Up and Dance

"Oh, don't you dare look back
Just keep your eyes on me.”
I said, "You're holding back."
She said, "Shut up and dance with me!"
This woman is my destiny
She said, "Ooh-ooh-hoo
Shut up and dance with me."

Should Joe Biden run in 2024?

No. But if Joe Biden had run in 2016, and maybe we wouldn’t have Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe would not be running in 2024 because he would have completed two terms anyway.

And while we are at it , Obama should not have run in 2008 except George  Bush did such a bad job somebody had to clean up. George Bush should not have won in 2000 and the SCOTUS should not have interfered, then Gore would have been president and maybe no recession in 2008 and no 9/11. And while we are at it, if Hinkley had better aim, then maybe George W Bush might have stopped the voodoo Reaganomics Tax Cuts and maybe Iran-Contra would not have happened. Are we going to play the “what if “ game some more? How far back are we playing? Shut up and dance with who brung you. Don’t look around for a better partner. 

Forrest Gump

 

Woodstock

I'm going on down to Yasgur’s farm
I'm gonna join in a rock and roll band
I'm going to camp out on the land
I'm gonna try and get my soul free

Joni Mitchell did not go to Yasgur’s farm, and neither did I

Joni Michell wrote the definitive song about Woodstock. She was supposed to perform at Woodstock but the closest she got to Woodstock was flying over the festival. Her staff would not let her land or perform due to the crowd. I had a similar reason for not going.

I was at the Newport Jazz festival in July of 1969, just weeks before Woodstock. Because of Lee Giguere, we even had backstage passes ( Lee’s father worked for Pepsi, and Pepsi supplied the backstage areas). The Newport Jazz festival program that year included Jazz and Rock. As part of the program on Friday evening I saw Blind Faith ( newly formed with Eric Clapton and Steve Winwood), Ten Year’s After, Jeff Beck, Jethro Tull, Blood Sweat and Tears, etc. The show on the next evening was going to be headlined by Led Zepplin and James Brown. The problem was that the crowd surged through the fence during our show, our show was stopped, it was announced at the time that all subsequent shows were cancelled.  I left and never returned.  (Ultimately, the shows were NOT canceled). But because of the fact it was temporarily cancelled, I decided that Woodstock would have similar problems as well, so why go to Yasgur’s farm. Boy was I wrong. It was NOT cancelled! My tickets might never have been collected, but the music played on.  Forrest Gump was not the only one who lived through historical events without even realizing it.

Old Friends

 

Once Upon at Time

Once upon a time, the world was sweeter than we knew
Everything was ours; how happy we were then
But, somehow, once upon a time never comes again

But once upon a time it  happened, even if it never comes again.

In 1969 the four Merit Scholarship Semi-Finalists were announced for Rhode Island.  Not to make it all about me, but they included:

·        James Joyce, my best friend in grade school and a member of my Cub Scout Den who lived around the corer from me;

·        Barbara  Casey who sat next to me in 7^th grade and on whom I had an unrequited, and never expressed, crush;

·        Lee Giguere, my best friend in high school; and

·        myself. 

At the time I blamed Lee for myself not getting into MIT, which was my second choice for college.  Lee got in to MIT but was miserable there, took every Liberal Arts elective that he could, and graduated with a Bachelor Of Science in Journalism. My first choice for college was the US Naval Academy, but I failed the physical test because of my eyesight.  I had to settle for my “safe” school, Brown University.

The last time I saw Jimmy was in high school. The last time I saw Barbara was in 1971 when she was also taking the Federal Civil Service exam for a summer job. The last time I saw Lee was at his wedding after graduation from MIT.  But once upon a time I was Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon from all of them.

Debates II

Skyfall

Let the sky fall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together

Is the sky falling?

Chicken Little (known as Henny Penny on the European side of the pond), is a cautionary folk tale about the dangers of making assumptions, and how those assumptions can be used to your detriment by bad actors, such as Foxy Loxy.  Did President Biden display age related senility during his debate with Donald Trump, or did DJT as Foxy Loxy want you to mistake confusion for senility.

For all the prominent Democrats and pundits calling for Joe Biden’s ouster, please read Chicken Little, and please don’t believe that the sky is falling.  Bad things that will happen if you do, unless we face it all together.

A Two-party Platform?

 

Call Me Mister In-Between

Well, I'm too old for girls and I'm too young for women
I've looked all around and my hopes are a-dimmin'
I feel like a fish not allowed any swimmin'
And it makes a fella mean
To feel he's a part of the Lost Generation
I feel like a choo-choo that can't find the station
I work like a dog with no recreation
They call me Mr. In-Between

Often being In-Between is a GOOD thing.

An election of a candidate to represent you in the group is about the candidate’s  policies AND character. By character, it is meant whether that candidate actually endorses those policies, rather than only pretending to endorse those policies in order to win the election. The fact that there are three outcomes to a contest while there are only two major parties, means that rank choice voting can NOT be used to indicate which of the candidates is your first, second and third choice. A voter may be faced with voting against a candidate rather than voting for a candidate. This will not advance a candidate whose policies are preferred by the voter, just that the charcater of the other candidate is so appalling that you will vote against your policies so as  to not vote for the other candidate.

When the major parties had two wings, this was not necessarily a problem. The winner of the party nomination probably had enough character that you could vote for his polices. Thus Main Street and Wall Street Republicans could exist in the same party. But if a major party will actively oppose having two factions and requires that all members think the same, then that party may nominate a candidate whose character is appalling to what would  have been those former members and voters, because they do not believe that their former party’s candidates character is such to advance their policies.

That there are two major parties is a consequences of Duverger’s Law. This says that in an election that is decided by dominance, i.e. >50% or even plurality and less than 50%, voters and candidates will eventually gravitate to two political parties. This can be changed if the two major parties each advance two candidates for election. Then there will be at a minimum four characters on each ballot. Then rank choice voting could be used even in a two-party system. Voters could then vote for a candidate and not against a candidate. Rank choice voting when there are only three candidates ensures that the winner will be acceptable to almost 67% of the voters. And 67% is a lot higher than 50%.

It is proposed that at each nominating convention of the major parties, there would be a nomination of a primary candidate and a secondary candidate. In the case of president, a slate of president and vice president. In states where elections are by rank choice voting, ( e.g. Alaska) both candidates would be on the ballot. In elections where rank choice voting is NOT used, then only the primary candidate shall be placed in the ballot.

As an example, if 10 people are asked to rank their three favorite restaurants and everyone picks a different first place restaurant and everyone picks a different third place restaurant, but everyone pick the same second place restaurant, then everyone’s second place restaurant IS the consensus favorite restaurant of the group. It was no individual's first choice, but it is everyone’s second choice restaurant, and thus probably the most acceptable restaurant to everyone of those 10 people in the group.

Character

 

The Impossible Dream

And the world will be better for this
That one man, scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To reach the unreachable
The unreachable
The unreachable star 

What I heard last night 

The last question that was asked during last night’s interview on ABC with President Biden, was how would he feel if Donald Trump wins the election in 2024? As a result of President Biden’s response, I heard the song lyric above playing in my head. The first ABC pundit responding to the interview said that he was deeply troubled by his response and that an unnamed senior Democrat was also upset by his response. I guess it really is true that perspective is everything. 

This concluding song is from the Broadway musical “Man of La Mancha”.  The author Cervantes sings it while in prison, so clearly Cervantes had lost. But his song was his response, that character is more important than winning. 

Elections are about character and policies. But IMHO character is much more important. I might disagree with the policies, but if the character is such that truth matters, then I know that that candidate will fight for those policies as hard as he would fight for mine, and he might even change his policies to mine. If his opponent is a liar, I do not know if that opponent will fight for the policies that he articulated even if I agree with those policies at that present time. The election is about the world being better, not the other candidate being better. Am I certain that President Biden will be elected? Nothing is certain, but the world would be grateful if he is elected.

Debates

 

Noah

God began to flood the land
Raised his hand to heaven on high
And knocked that sun and the moon from the sky
Shook the mountains and disturbed the sea
Hitched his reins to his Chariot Wheel
Stepped on land and stood out on shore
Declared this time couldn't be no more
'Cause it's gonna rain

What if you flood with something other than water?

Steve Bannon, the convicted prisoner who can currently be reached at the Danbury Federal Correctional Institution, is an advocate of flooding the zone with bullshit/lies.  So apparently is Donald Trump, which he displayed during his “debate” with President Biden.  In debate, this strategy is called the Gish Gallop after creationist Duane Gish who often used the technique when challenging the scientific fact of evolution.  The problem in debate is that it takes more time to respond to the lies than it does to state the lies in the first place. 

When it is used in a debate, the victim appears confused.  When the victim had previously been characterized as old, this confusion can appear to be confirmation that this confusion was age induced senility.  Abbott and Costello tried to amuse us with this technique.  We were supposed to think that Lou Costello was stupid, not merely confused.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAkLzbq2K3I. 

During the debate, the confusion was supposed to be evidence of senility.  Flooding the zone with lies, especially when Jake Tapper and Dana Bash were of no help in fact-checking those lies,  couldn’t have worked, could it?

Ties

 

Heartbreaker

You're a heartbreaker
Dream maker, love taker
Don't you mess around with me

What about Tie breakers?

The outcome of any fair contest is a win, a loss, OR a tie. However, because in many cases a tie is considered to be like kissing your sister, if a contest ends in a tie, a tie breaker (which may be extra innings, sudden death, overtime, extra time, shoot outs, etc.) is often used. But that did not change the fact that the regular contest ended in a tie.

The reason that a tie breaker is used is because that contest may have been  trying to establish certainty. Certainty is the inverse of the odds of an outcome. If you have any outcome, the certainty is, by definition, less than 100%. If the outcome can be changed from a tie, then it can appear to increase the certainty. However while a win establishes dominance, so does a loss (the winner, not the loser. is dominant). A tie does NOT establish dominance. The problem is confusing certainty with dominance. A tie breaker only appears to increase the certainty to 50%. The fact that there was a tie breaker in the first place has to be considered, and the probability of that tie breaker being needed was 33%.

The National Hockey League, in its regular season, not Stanley Cup, games, recognizes this. After a regular season hockey game ends in a tie AND the following  overtime (which could end in sudden death) ends in a tie; AND the following shoot out of 5 shots ends in a tie, it awards one point for each side for that tie, while a win always gets 2 points, and tie during the regular contest gets a point, and a loss during the regular contest gets no points.

Pretending a contest has only two outcomes, Win/Loss when Tie is a valid outcome, is IMHO the source of much confusion. A trial verdict is Guilty or Not Guilty, not a verdict of Guilty or Innocent. Not Guilty includes Reasonable Doubt, in addition to Innocence. A win from a tie breaker only establishes dominance, it does not establish certainty.

Only the absolute can be certain. We can strive to approach certainty, but we can not achieve it. Do not confuse dominance with certainty. That “win” which indicates dominance can be the result of cheating which by definition is the opposite of Truth/Certainty.

Immigrants

 

Immigrant Song

We come from the land of the ice and snow
From the midnight sun where the hot springs flow
How soft your fields so green
Can whisper tales of gore
Of how we calmed the tides of war
We are your overlords

Should we afraid of immigrants?

I would like to cite another song lyric as a counterpoint.

How Have You Been

How have you been my darling children,
While I have been away in the west?
Though you are strangers,
I feel that I know you.
By the way that you treat me
 And offer to feed me
And eagerly ask if I'll stay for a rest.

My maternal grandparents were immigrants from Poland who never learned to speak English.  My paternal great-grandparents were all immigrants from Ireland.  ( My paternal grandmother was born in the US, but my father’s father was an illegal immigrant from Canada!).  Everyone in the United States is a descendant of immigrants.  You may fear new immigrants if you think that the world is a zero-sum game and immigrants/strangers will take what you have.  If the world is NOT a zero-sum game, a group is stronger when it is larger, and immigrants can contribute to your group, then it makes sense to treat immigrants/strangers well and welcome them into your group.  I understand that the fear of strangers (stranger danger) is part of out human psyche.  But every major religion has admonitions about treating strangers well.  So are you religious punk? Do you believe in taking or sharing?