Ties

 

Heartbreaker

You're a heartbreaker
Dream maker, love taker
Don't you mess around with me

What about Tie breakers?

The outcome of any fair contest is a win, a loss, OR a tie. However, because in many cases a tie is considered to be like kissing your sister, if a contest ends in a tie, a tie breaker (which may be extra innings, sudden death, overtime, extra time, shoot outs, etc.) is often used. But that did not change the fact that the regular contest ended in a tie.

The reason that a tie breaker is used is because that contest may have been  trying to establish certainty. Certainty is the inverse of the odds of an outcome. If you have any outcome, the certainty is, by definition, less than 100%. If the outcome can be changed from a tie, then it can appear to increase the certainty. However while a win establishes dominance, so does a loss (the winner, not the loser. is dominant). A tie does NOT establish dominance. The problem is confusing certainty with dominance. A tie breaker only appears to increase the certainty to 50%. The fact that there was a tie breaker in the first place has to be considered, and the probability of that tie breaker being needed was 33%.

The National Hockey League, in its regular season, not Stanley Cup, games, recognizes this. After a regular season hockey game ends in a tie AND the following  overtime (which could end in sudden death) ends in a tie; AND the following shoot out of 5 shots ends in a tie, it awards one point for each side for that tie, while a win always gets 2 points, and tie during the regular contest gets a point, and a loss during the regular contest gets no points.

Pretending a contest has only two outcomes, Win/Loss when Tie is a valid outcome, is IMHO the source of much confusion. A trial verdict is Guilty or Not Guilty, not a verdict of Guilty or Innocent. Not Guilty includes Reasonable Doubt, in addition to Innocence. A win from a tie breaker only establishes dominance, it does not establish certainty.

Only the absolute can be certain. We can strive to approach certainty, but we can not achieve it. Do not confuse dominance with certainty. That “win” which indicates dominance can be the result of cheating which by definition is the opposite of Truth/Certainty.