Cycles

 

It’s Still Rock and Roll to Me

Don't waste your money on a new set of speakers
You get more mileage from a cheap pair of sneakers
Next Phase, New Wave, Dance craze, anyways
It's still Rock and Roll to me

And it’s still Mathematics to me!

I believe that there are historical cycles of  approximately 100 years. I say approximately, because the length of the historical cycle is a random phenomena whose average is 90 ±10 years. Half of a full period of a cycle is thus 45±5 years and 1/6 of a half cycle would thus be on average 8 1/3 years long. If the last Turning (end of a cycle) was in October of 1929, then you would expect an upward slope from approximately 1929 to 1979. And  a downward slope from approximately 1979 to 2029. In the first 1/6 of the first half cycle, e.g. ~1929 to 1938,  there would be slow to virtually no growth and that growth may be virtually indistinguishable from the decline at end of the last cycle. To an observer in the midst of a cycle, it may appear as if the cycle ended sometime in the middle of that period, e.g. 1932 ( i.e. it appears like a lag variable). 

There should be moderate growth for the next 1/6 of the half cycle (~1938 to 1947). There would be twice the rate of growth for the next 1/6 of a half cycle ( ~1947 to 1956) and that rate of growth would be accelerating. There would be almost the same rate of growth during the next 1/6 of the half cycle (~1956 to 1964), but that growth would be decelerating. During the first 1/6 of the next half cycle the growth is declining but the change is virtually indistinguishable from the last 1/6 of the previous half cycle. The rate of decline accelerates during the next 1/6 of a cycle, (~ 1979-1986). The rate of decline virtually doubles during the next 1/6 of the cycle, ( ~1986-2004). The highest rate of decline happens during the next 1/3 of a half cycle, (~2004 to 2020). The rate of decline decelerates during the next 1/6 of the half cycle, (~ 2020-2029). The last phase of the cycle has virtually no growth, just like the first 1/6 of the next half cycle where growth returns.

Yes, the length of each phase can vary. Wars, economic downturns, terrorist attacks, extreme weather  and other random events can occur. What about on average is so hard to understand?

There is a danger zone about 80% through a declining half cycle where things may have gotten so inequitable that revolution against the sovereign can happen. That puts the danger zone at somewhere between 2020 and 2029 where there is a strong possibility that the subjects of the sovereign will say off with their heads.