Third Parties

 

The Party’s Over

The party's over, it's time to call it a day.

They've burst your pretty balloon, 

And taken the moon away.

It's time to wind up the masquerade,

Just make your mind up,

The piper must be paid. 

If those leaving the Republican Party form a third party, what will happen? 

Duverger’s Law explains why there are only two parties in the United States.  There may be third parties at any given point in time, but eventually there will only be two parties.  The interesting question  is who will leave the Republican Party and form a third party, and whether that third party eventually becomes the alternative to the Democratic Party. 

Those Republicans who opposed Donald Trump have threatened to leave, or are being pushed out, to form a new center right party.  Those who support Donald Trump have threatened to leave and form, what they are calling, a Patriots Party.   Who leaves, and/or who gets absorbed into another party, eventually will determine what happens in the long term.  Those who support the existing caste system, oppose immigration, and have a narrow view of whom government should be supporting, will not likely find a home in the Democratic Party.  They are the Trump supporters who currently are in the Republican Party.  The “Never Trumpers” might see a place as a conservative wing of a Democratic Party, but if the Republican party is dominated by Trump supporters, then they have to decide whether to continue to be included in that party.  If neither of these groups see a place in the Democratic Party, the less influential group is likely to simply stop supporting any party and no longer vote.  

In any event, if the current divisions continue in the Republican Party, then eventually the dominant group will become the Republican Party or its replacement, and the losers may no longer vote, have a party to represent them.  It is too early to say if that group will be those who believe in limited but inclusive government or those who believe in exclusive government, if there is to be any government at all. There are two binary decisions: Limited or strong government; inclusive or exclusive government. This defines four possible groups but we can only support a two party system.  Some group has to be left out of the party.